John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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When it is down you can get a close idea from looking at where the HRRR initializes.
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Normally here. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/upper/ But they went down a few minutes ago now I can't get it to pull up the current map.
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First round of precip looks like it is going to pass south of me. 850s look a little colder than the NAM forecast.
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37/25 here. Steady falling Temps. Kinda surprised by it.
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Surprised you're that high. Crossville is only 22 and I know you're just a few miles from there as the crow and weather flies.
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The long range is showing the potential of the pattern if nothing else. Much better than endless warmth or cutters like last year and the year before.
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39/22 currently. After reading the MRX disco I think it's going to snow here. It was actually nicely detailed but I did have to read it a few times.
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I feel like the Euro ingested my trip and that got it all wonky. Now that it's getting to realize it was canceled its coming back to normal.
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Went out to change the batteries in one of my weather station sensors and found that all my snow hadn't melted off . My grandma would always say it was sticking around for the next one to visit.
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They just reissued the advisory for here though their zfp is winter storm warning criteria.
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Now my zone updated to this. Tonight A chance of rain or snow likely in the evening, then snow or rain or light sleet after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation up to 4 inches. Lows around 30. Light winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
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The point forecast actually shows colder lows down 75 towards Athens than for Knox and Anderson Co. 32 vs 33. Point forecasts aren't usually all that accurate but interesting that it some how arrived at that.
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OHX expanded their advisory area one tier of counties to the west but stayed with 1-3 inch totals for their CWA advisory area.
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The SPS has disappeared from the Knoxville to Chattanooga area. Will see soon what replaces it.
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I hope so, I'm thinking 2-4 is probably more realistic due to ratios.
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If looking for changes to the advisory, MRX lowered my snow totals in the ZFP from 2-4 to 1-3, so check yours vs earlier today to see if they've changed at all and it will probably give a clue to their updated thinking.
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The EPS has a banana high set up going at the time the OP is a cutter. I would guess it will trend away from that and probably keep trending colder. The OP is warmer than the ensembles and that is often the case, the OPs are usually more extreme one way or another.
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The Euro tries to cut at the end of it's run, even though massive blocking is in place. That has shown up before this year, it didn't happen. I want to say our early January snow event was a cutter on the Euro initially.
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41 currently, after 23 briefly overnight before some warming towards morning. Still nicely cooled ground should making laying quick for all of us.
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The 06z GFS is insane.
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The 09z RAP bumped totals across the eastern rim, Plateau and Knoxville area vs the 03z run. Has a monster downsloping element in NETN. Roane/Western Knox went from virtually nothing to around 2 inches.
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I'm most baffled by their statement that there isn't model consensus for the event. It's literally on every single model, the only inconsistency in the modeling is probably from Athens south. They are issuing a Winter Weather Advisory, continuing their very long tradition of not issuing a Winter Storm Warning outside the mountains unless circumstances are just slam dunk dire.
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HRRR comes in strong well back into the mid-state. MRX has mentioned wanting hi-res models on board. Be curious to see what they issue. Virtually all modeling is showing Winter Storm Warning criteria for their Plateau zones. Same for OHX.
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The Euro and GFS remain on separate planets regarding the upcoming cold or no cold. One will have to flinch soon. The GFS move to cold begins in less than a week.
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Euro has less warm nose and gets the mid state in the game.
