John1122

That's where there's a hazardous weather outlook. That includes rain, wind, heat, cold etc. Just a catchall.

The GFS is insane. It just never stops snowing and icing. There's also non accounted for sleet in here too. Epic sleet in some areas.

West Tennessee has 12-16 inches of snow plus ice, sleet and Arctic air next week. Basically a repeat of February 2015 that happened in the East.

The V16 takes the low road and scoots the low off the coast of South Carolina, which means more winter state wide with a good thump of snow west of the Plateau.

It won't just be the storm either. It will be the cold before, during and after.

Probably the most unrealistic portion of that GFS run is extremely frigid air to the N and W of the low that somehow doesn't get pulled into our area when the low is E and NE of us.

Low went to Tri Cities and then transferred or redeveloped south around Asheville. Trend east is better. Wonky Tri to Asheville development unlikely imo.

Still trying to cut on the GFS but a little further east. Probably 3 inches of sleet in Nashville on this run.

Not sure where it will lead but the GFS is colder to the spine of the Apps this run. 9 degrees colder in Knoxville. Monster winter storm in the western areas still locked in place.

I think you guys may have a week of winter weather you talking about for years after this.

18z GFS

Middle Tennessee gradient.

I feel like you're going to have about a week long show. I hope you're stocked up and have back up power and are able to enjoy winter's wrath.

My point forecast says freezing rain Thursday night after the WWA ends. Low of 30. Seems odd.

It was 59 in Nashville hours before the 1951 ice storm hit. Often the stronger the Arctic push the warm it gets out front.

This entire winter we've had one storm that just went from a great track to a cutter and it pulled 400 mile west shifts on all models for 3 consecutive runs. We've had several that tried to come north that ended up further south and east.

It went from Detroit to Atlanta in one run. I may rename the Euro the Bandit it got to Atlanta so fast.

Last night at 0z the storm cut to Ohio.

The shifts south and east are determined by blocking over the Great Lakes vs the NAO region. Last night there was a 1040ish high over Minnesota and another in Pennsylvania. The one over Minnesota literally disappeared in 6 hours on the EURO and the storm cut. That run it kept the storm suppressed then got out ahead of it and allowed it to gain latitude.

The 12z GFS was 200 miles east of 6z. The Euro shift south from 0z was 700 miles.

The front will have a better shot the further north you are and you're in a low spot compared to areas around you. If you can get cold air trapped you'll have a good shot. It looks like models are pushing it over the Apps there, so it's likely deeper up that way and should be able to spill over. You are in a tough spot for downsloping when snow hits if you're in Grundy. I believe the elevations are higher to your northwest, west, and southwest, which are all primary directions that snow producing systems have their moisture feed from here. But being down deep in a hollow like that you're much more prone to ice because it is likely tough to scour out of the valley where Grundy is located.

Euro was further south in Western areas with the ice. Got Memphis when it showed rain there at 12z. Warmer in general though. Not a surprise since it has been doing absolutely awful with temps, missing by 5-9 degrees on the high side at the surface the last several days.

Beautiful UKIE run. It's frigid with more snow.

It's going to be close that far east but it wouldn't shock me. The hollows there are notorious for draining cold air getting trapped. Harlan has a better shot than Bell if I were guessing.

The Canadian has a completely different take and only gives a glancing blow but it's snow. All models have the ice over the next few days. All have the big storm early next week. All are slightly different for it.