John1122

We are around 24 hours out for AMZ and our west sider from this starting. Shelby is under snow returns by 8pm CST tomorrow per the HRRR. It's coming in healthier out west than 18z.

SREF mean is around 7 inches for the Plateau and SE KY. Around 4 inches for Tri/SWVa and nearly 4 for Chattanooga.

The mean is 4 inches for Memphis, 5 for Nashville and Knoxville. Each have a few 10+ inch big hitters. Nashville had a 15 incher.

Not such which model Accuweather uses.

Another 1993 flashback. WVLT met said "don't believe these big totals you're seeing shared on social media of model out puts. No way it is going to happen." Eerily reminiscent of Matt Hinkin's famous statement in 1993 about not believing the 12+ inch totals and blizzard talk being thrown about. He said 6 inches max back then.

Looks like David Aldrich is drinking NAM juice.

For those asking about snow in East Tennessee in March. 2018 had several days of pretty widespread snow. There was generally 1 to 3 in East Tn and up to 3 or 4 inches in SE Kentucky.

That sleet burst, if it happens, will greatly aid in snow sticking. Even 1/4th inch would be huge.

Anyone have the GFS sleet map? It shows a strong burst of sleet on the leading edge of the precip.

5 hours after it stops, snow depth isn't much less than snowfall on the RAP.

21z Rap maintains.

I can't believe these extreme runs, even though I know they are very very possible in March storms. Even more likely in March storms as a matter of fact. That gfs run would be dumping 3 inches an hour here.

In his follow up the WVLT met said snow will be falling extremely hard but it won't be able to accumulate until the temperature drops into the mid-20s. Is there a TV meteorology degree where you don't actually study weather but just broadcasting instead?

WVLT's met once again said the snow will be coming down extremely hard but the accumulation will be "lost to puddles".

I'll allow it!

Monster snowfall rates and 35mph wind gusts...reminds me of something from a famous March event.

The HRRR was another very good run for most of us.

I expect a Winter Storm Watch to be issued for my area, the mountains and SWVa at minimum.

It's flatter, the other models take it up into NC. The Euro scoots it eastward even though it's very wound up at 999 and falling fast. Those usually turn NE.

Euro rolling in with the monkey wrench. Strong storm but 1/3rd the precip vs all other modeling. Not sure why it's precip field is so much less than everyone else.

09z RAP hot off the presses. Still snowing Plateau east here as the Low is just north of Charlotte at 995.

The Euro is 1-3 across the middle and west areas and 3-6+ from the Plateau Eastward, north of about Athens or so. It's the fastest out with the system.

Final note before I catch a couple hours sleep. JKL acknowledges that at least 3-5 inches are likely across their entire CWA but have only issued winter products for parts of it. They are rolling with the NMB but note that even the Euro is a major snow storm for their CWA.

06z GFS maintains major winter storm status. 4-12 inches across most of the forum with the large area of 6+ falling in the Eastern half.

To put in perspective the ground temperature here vs the ground temp in Atlanta in March 1983, I was in the low to mid 20s the first 3 days of the month. There's been two days this month with a low above the 30s and it's 36 right now. Atlanta hadn't been below freezing in 10 days when that storm hit and that was 31 10 days prior to the storm. That was their only day below 32 the first 23 days of March. They'd been in the 80s during the month. If you go back to the last 30 days, I was in the 10s 6 times and the low 20s 4 others, including 22 on Feb 28th. So it was below 25 4 of the last 10 days here. The current soil temps are in the lower 40s across most of the forum area. I think heavy snow falling with a temp in the upper 20s and falling, will get it done as far as accumulating.