John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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The best pure snow events for the valley areas almost always seem to be upglide situations. The systems that are prone to produce big events are almost always prone to mixing issues. The rare times they don't is when you see huge totals in lower elevations. But most major valley cities have fewer than 15 10+ inch snow events in the last 100 years or so. So once again, uncommon. I'll always take a 3-6 inch all snow event vs a risky mix or 12 inch gamble.
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Here's a video that gives a very basic explanation. https://www.wbir.com/video/weather/explaining-horseshoe-snow-forecasts-in-east-tennessee/51-5f97bf74-5944-4211-948a-e572cf82db2f
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Double post.
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This, and the difference here (N. Plateau) vs NE Tennessee, even at similar elevations, is that you're more likely to see 15+ inch snow events there than here. Here you are more likely to see more different days where snow falls. Tazewell is on the edge basically of the NETN valley and NE section of the Cumberland Plateau. It's the snowiest non-mountain/plateau city in the state with an official reporting station.
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Look up the Grand Divisions or look at the CWA for each NWS office. To me, southern Tennessee is basically the two or three counties along the southern border of the state. You will often see I-40 used as a guide, because snow/mix/rain line seems to happen right around it quite often. The Northern Plateau is basically Fentress, Scott, Morgan, Campbell, NW Claiborne. Crossville and a county or two south is Central imo. Everything else is southern Plateau. Yes, there are times when the Plateau/Mountains see snow when everywhere else sees rain. It's actually pretty common.
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Take with huge grains of salt as it's at the enc of it's range, the RAP shows a smaller and more compact precip area with the snow falling Plateau/East. It also introduced freezing rain for parts of the forum area around southern middle Tennessee.
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It's going to be cold enough for snow everywhere in the valley except for perhaps the southern edge. The models will just key on different bands at times and it will lead to heavier totals displayed in those areas. Sometimes they key too much on terrain when the system has ample cold for all.
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The QBO has progressed deeply into the negative, around -24 to -25. Our last progression this deep into the negative in January/February was 2015 when we saw brutal cold and snow/ice in February.
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You can look at that, see the totals in Illinois, Missouri, Iowa etc and see that the Euro clearly favors, at least as of Monday, a long term storm track that is southern systems, sliders, Miller As etc vs cutters. The blocking patterns we keep seeing showing up, also favors that track.
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The weeklies snow map. Obviously can't be taken verbatim but shows the potential of the pattern we are looking at over the next several weeks of winter.
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The ratio's are showing up from 11 to 15:1 as the event unfolds.
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We are 48 hours or so from this potential system beginning in Western areas of the forum. We have concensus model agreement of a system sliding south of the forecast area, leaving us in the cold sector. Temps in advance are way better than yesterday's set up, which worked well for some and skipped others. Any rain here looks to be brief before the snow starts in snow favored areas. Though most areas are modeled to begin as snow and stay snow. The track of the 850 low was pretty classic for snow events nearly valley wide, though the southern border, as currently modeled, would probably see temperature issues. Should be an interesting 48 hours of model watching. This is a good second chance for some who missed the best bands yesterday.
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The Euro maintains the same general idea as 12z and now, all other modeling.
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GFS went from a washed out mess to this.
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GFS looks to be coming on board with all other modeling. Snowing from Memphis to the Plateau by 10 or so Thursday morning.
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RGEM'd again. Further south with the frozen like the NAM. After the globals in the next few hours, may be time for another thread.
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This falls from 1pm to 7pm Thursday. Western areas get 1-2 inches between 7am-1pm. Plateau to SW VA, down to Loudon/Monroe gets roughly .5-1.5 more from 7pm to 1am.
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It's happening in the day time into evening on the Euro. Temps are in the upper 20s and lower 30s Thursday morning when the state starts seeing frozen.
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18z RGEM, it's still snowing over most of East Tennessee East of 75 and the 40 corridor N at the end of the run.
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Cumberland Mtn from LaFollette. The trees are awesome on days like today.
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It's holding in the upper 20s here and nothing much is melting. It's not even falling off the trees. Unless the sun comes out we probably won't see much more melting.
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Couple of photos I took about 30 minutes ago.
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I'd definitely take what the Canadian is selling. It and the RGEM were pretty good for this last event. I believe the Euro caught on last out of all the modeling. They were all painting with a broad brush, even the mesoscale models weren't fine tuned enough to be able to spot the extremes in small local areas with the just concluded event. You won't see many like it.
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Last night was such an extreme situation regarding heavy rain and warm ground that any little thing was a monkey wrench. But if you got under a great band or two you racked up. From MRX, a little broad brushed but mostly accurate imby.
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Even though it feels like it's not going to do much more here, MRX added me to the Winter Storm Warning and says up to 5 inches. Here's to hoping.
