John1122
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Everything posted by John1122
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So far, it's overperforming everywhere. Parts of Iowa got 14-15 inches. I believe it had been showing 6-8 there. Unfortunately, past performance doesn't guarantee future success.
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Storms seem to repeat some years. Looks like next weekend is a prime chance for a nice event. The GFS has it. The Euro is suppressed to the south and east of here but Nina climo would suggest just enough Atlantic Ridge to nudge it back our way. If we can cash in tomorrow and get that one, it would be epic. It's great seeing multiple threats of snow inside D10 in the heart of winter. It doesn't get any better outside a nice Christmas snow. QBO dropping in winter is magic.
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The waiting game is on. The hours until snow actually starts is the hard time. Will it, won't it? I hate marginal set ups. I want a Miller A/Slider with 20s forum wide. Not sure where the HRRR had my temperature a few runs ago for this hour, but it's 36/32.
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I didn't look but assume their snow map is computer generated and likely close to the NMB snow map.
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Looks like MRX finally bit on the models here. Hopefully their faith us rewarded. It's drizzling here with a few melty flakes mixed in. I drove up to 2000 feet and it was snowing dime sized flakes. So Hopefully we can get some rate driven cooling.
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Steady light snow falling here now. Can't see Cross Mountain from about 2.5 miles away. At a basketball game and recording Tennessee vs Kentucky.
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MRX lowered my chance of > than 4 inches from 70+ percent to 40ish percent from last night into today. They seem convinced models aren't right here.
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Snow showers this morning at 35 degrees. 8-13 inches here across most modeling as the event is imminent. What could possibly go wrong?
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They finally released the AFD. Cited no winter storm warning here due to uncertainty, though I'm not sure how it's a certainty in parts of SWVA under a warning vs here. They got roasted on the last event when it didn't snow in Knoxville. I think they are gun shy.
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The GFS is just all in. It's either gonna bust wide open or score big. 13 inches imby that run.
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MRX upgraded SWVa to a winter storm warning. Left the watch for my area and added a tier of counties below the watch to a WWA. I'm curious to read their AFD explaining why they did so. It's certainly not based on model guidance from overnight. Also not sure why it takes so long for the AFD to come out on days when it's potentially snowy. It normally rolls out around 3 am, looks like it's going to be 2 hours behind this morning.
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Looks like MRX lowered my snow totals quite a bit from the forecast yesterday. Odd, the models actually all got better tonight. Oh well, boom or bust as the thread says.
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They will likely add winter products of some kind with their update here shortly. I am not sure what though. It's a tough forecast at best. Especially in the I-81 corridor.
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Low seemed to transfer at 42, then it moves from Central NC. NW into WVA. It's at 990 in West Virginia Sunday evening. That's a tropical storm strength. NE areas getting snow still. Low drops to 989 then starts moving due east through 48. Good run for most except the Knoxville area and NW Tennessee/SWKY.
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By 40 it's filled in precip in NE areas as frozen. The Low is about to cross into Virginia.
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Up to Boone NC by HR 38, Plateau to Mid-state getting hit nicely. Frozen in a straight line from basically Middlesboro due south to NE Georgia and points west.
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Next hour it runs up to Clingsman Dome. super downsloping the NE areas. The downslope reaches all the way to Claiborne Co. Which would be extreme to say the least.
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The HRRR looks like it might be letting the L slip onto the other side of the Apps. It's in SW NC at 999 with a big time deform band on the Plateau.
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The HRRR caught on about 24 hours out with the fact that far eastern areas would struggle. The RAP and 3k NAM did as well. We will see if they make any big moves tomorrow.
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Euro maintains.
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RAP finally came north.
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The Oz GFS shows basically what Nashville NWS is talking about for the midstate. I suspect MRX won't be as bullish as the GFS for their below 40 counties that rack up that run.
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10" on the GFS at 0z. Using my 50-60 percent of snowfall method I should be sitting pretty for 5+ inches.
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If you're not opposed to clinched cheeks getting up there, the top of Cross Mountain is 3000-3500 feet and is generally being modeled for 12+.
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0z models so far that cover the whole event imby, 9 inches on the NAM, 9 inches on the Rgem.
