John1122

I hope for all our sakes a Canadian solution comes to pass. That's solid for the whole forum basically. I'll take a few less inches if everyone gets more.

I'd love to see it track from Columbia to Danville Virginia.

"WHAT IS NBM? The National Blend of Models (NBM) is a nationally consistent and skillful suite of calibrated forecast guidance based on a blend of both NWS and non-NWS numerical weather prediction model data and post-processed model guidance. The goal of the NBM is to create a highly accurate, skillful and consistent starting point for the gridded forecast. This new way to produce NDFD grids will be helpful providing forecasters with a suite of information to use for their forecasts. The NBM is considered an important part of the efforts to evolve NWS capabilities to achieve a Weather-Ready Nation." I would guess it's the NAM/GFS family + the Euro suite.

I'm not sure what all goes into it. Jeff may know. It's where the point forecasts come from I believe.

If we can really get that low to cut up through Central North Carolina, we can make big hay on the back end.

Further south but downsloping eastern areas on the front end. Huge deform band in middle Tennessee.

GFS is warmer than the NAM through 54.

If that's real I don't even know what to say..

It seems like each model has its favorite snow hole. The Canadian models have Roane County in the cross hairs.

I assume the second shift came to work with fresh eyes.

Unfortunately, yes. We had another storm a few years ago that did that. So it's definitely on the table. We won't be in the prime NAM range until tomorrow, so I expect more changes as we go. Another shift south like the one we just had with it from 18z to 00z, and it would cut the other side of the Apps before it could get up the valley. Other models are more of a straight Miller A type track. I wouldn't give the NAM any great weight over the Euro for now.

You can see the rain shadow up the Apps in East Tennessee, along the high Cumberlands in East KY like Black, also the areas just west of the mountains in WVA. Down here the QPF is cut by nearly 50% over 20 or 30 miles as the crow flies.

That cut up the Apps really kills the counties that border the Smokies. The everyone west of basically those counties does somewhere between well and spectacular.

And it's a hard left to run the Apps. Really screws the eastern areas. Will have to see if it does this and transfers or not.

The NAM is going to front end hammer the Tn/KY border counties. It's backside hammering western forum areas now.

NAM is also colder. More snow and less freezing rain through Saturday at 10pm.

I think I remember getting 9.25 inches a few years ago with a storm that had the exact track the Euro shows on the Holston gif there.

I assume it's some in house graphics. He just had the big L going almost over Memphis to Nashville to Cincy.

Hinkin is the most ultra conservative met ever and he was the lead man at WATE for 31 years. He retired last August but his viewpoint seems to have lived on there. His most famous call ever is telling people not to believe the forecasts of a blizzard in March 1993. He said there was no way a wide spread 12+ inch snow was happening, and to expect 6 inches with some isolated higher spots. This was 12 hours before it hit.

WATE showed the low move from just south of Memphis to Nashville then to Cincinnati. then it transferred to off the Carolina coast. He said the back side snow chance was slim because of the path of the low then the transfer would rob it of it's energy.

WATE is using the Hinkin 5000 model. It has the low going to Cincinnati and he said the cold was only going to be there for the south toward Georgia and for West Tennessee.

If Eastern Kentucky gets downsloped by the Smokies we are in a Day After Tomorrow Scenario.

GFS is just incredibly dry after the storm this weekend. Tries to get something going in Texas but a 1040H drives straight to Dallas and smashes it.

TV Mets are really just awful. I often wonder if they feel bad inside with what they are saying. This should probably be spoken of as a serious winter threat with the potential that it doesn't happen rather than outright dismissal going on right now. As of now TV Mets are saying "the tops of the mountains may see enough to sled on but no worries anywhere else". The potential impact to the power grid is significant if even half the amount shown by most models gets on trees and power lines. I'm not really confident that any where gets 10+ inches but it looks very possible for some isolated places. I find it odd NWS Nashville is that dismissive of the possibility after parts of their CWA got 8-10 last storm and this one has a higher potential for big totals by all appearances.

Parts of their CWA got 10 inches last storm.