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John1122

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Everything posted by John1122

  1. John1122
    Went from 55 to 42 in around 15 minutes.
  2. John1122
    Temp is 55 here and 37 about 18 miles away in Oneida. Very heavy rain moving over. I expect to be in the cold sector in the next 30 or 45 minutes. Not sure how far sub freezing is to my to my NW. They are still decently far away due west though.
  3. John1122
    Any cold air will happen after midnight most likely. It's actually well under forecast temps here as of now. They had 57 here but its only 51.
  4. John1122
    The winter storm is rolling across west Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas. The models, even the hi-res are struggling to keep up with the East push and depth of the cold air. Areas expected to see freezing rain are seeing more sleet. Areas forecast to see Zr/Sleet at this hour appear to be getting snow. The HRRR looks like it's trying to catch up but it's staying behind a little.
  5. John1122
    Nashville issued a WWA for a big chunk of its CWA. That will likely have to be moved East if the NAM/RGem are correct.
  6. John1122
    Does Camp Creek have usually high winds outside of mountain wave events? I often wonder if it's one of the windiest places in the lower 48.
  7. John1122
    I love the threads for that. Glad we are building our own database. I think you mentioned getting in on the nice front end on the thread. We also had a big winter storm Feb 16th 2015. It's crazy how that V-Day week is so productive.
  8. John1122
    The 0z RGEM is pretty close to the NAM over the next 36 hours as well. Devastating ice west. Light to moderate ice Plateau and Middle areas.
  9. John1122
    The latest NAM is just mean for Memphis and other areas of West Tennessee. Close to 2 inches of qpf as freezing rain. Also a good portion of Middle Tennessee and the Plateau gets .10 or more zr per the NAM.
  10. John1122
    Jackson issued WWA all the way to the Tennessee/VA border. Winter Storm Warnings one tier of counties north of the border. If the cold presses just a little more south and east a lot more of Tennessee is going to need winter products.
  11. John1122
    They almost always get a little lower, and colder further south and east in these situations. Hopefully you don't get the 1 inch ice totals. Those just smash the power grid.
  12. John1122
    There was a big winter storm Valentines Day 2016. It was ice/sleet in lower elevations and a front end snow thump along the Plateau and NE areas.
  13. John1122
    For travel, an inch of snow and sleet plus .10 ice, that's awful travel.
  14. John1122
    For whatever reason, January 28th-30th shows up repeatedly in history for winter storms, and we had one this year. The other time frame that really sticks out is Feb 13th-15th. I'm sure it's anecdotal but it seems like we see a lot of Valentine's Day winter events.
  15. John1122
    It definitely is for a lot of us. I'd love to see the Tri to Chattanooga section of the Valley get cranked up too. It's crazy that Austin Texas has had three major winter storms since Knoxville has had one.
  16. John1122
    They missed one event in Tazewell as far as how much fell. I believe they had something like 1 or 2 inches when 4-5 fell per a relative I have that lives there. The Newcomb station is the one I refer to that's a bit NW of me. Them getting 17 inches is particularly impressive because they are only 978 feet in elevation in a deep valley. Most of Campbell County is well over 1000 feet, if you live below 1000 feet in the southern part of the county you're under Norris Lake.
  17. John1122
    From MRX for January. Nashville had 9.5 per OHX, Jamestown 13, Allardt 20.1. Couldn't find Crossville data. I ended up with 19.8 inches in January. Sad that 4 inches is the most snow in Knoxville in January since 2014. Also wild to set all time monthly record highs, not get remotely close to any record lows, but still finish BN for the month temp wise.
  18. John1122
    It was 47 at TYS when I posted that, 44 at Tri, 43 at Crossville and 53 at Chattanooga. 32 in Middlesboro and Jacksboro.
  19. John1122
    Sitting at 31 degrees right now. A good 13-20 degrees cooler than the rest of the area outside of Middlesboro. Some reason there's just a cold pocket hanging on here. My snow survived another day in the shady spots that face North and East. So it will survive at least part of tomorrow too.
  20. John1122
    The biggest question I have from the OHX statement is that the ground is warm. Not that it matters with freezing rain, as it's biggest threats are to elevated surfaces like limbs, powerlines and bridges. The 5-day average soil temperature just north of Nashville is 31.2.
  21. John1122
    I've often found in these situations the cold creeps further S/E than modeled. JKL crept a little south with their winter storm watch this update. I think OHX will eventually have to issue winter products and that MEG will have to move theirs east. Hopefully our western forum guys aren't in the dark for days on end like some of the big 90s ice storms.
  22. John1122
    It's becoming more and more likely that at the minimum, western forum area members see a dangerous ice event as the week unfolds. The modeling is currently trending towards heavy ice accumulation for West Tennessee, moderate to heavy for the mid-State and Kentucky, and light to moderate over the Plateau areas. These ice amounts would be devastating for trees and the power grid. West Tennessee is actually one of the most freezing rain prone areas in the United States and these massive ice storms happen there.
  23. John1122
    The GFS just super amps everything this year. It's like the NAM. It tended to do that when it was the para. It amps these storms and shows 20 and 30 inch snowfall totals over large areas. So I don't really trust it's handling of the weekend system as of now. Ironically, as soon as the Euro and UK went to it's solution for mid-week, it started trending towards their prior solutions.
  24. John1122
    It's odd to see that track and not a bigger precip field. Oneida, London KY, Somerset KY and Middlesboro KY all recorded 0 qpf, as did Big Stone Gap and Wise VA. However, Pennington Gap and Abington got 4 to 5 inches.
  25. John1122
    I believe it was a system that tracked South and East of the forecast area and Oneida and into Kentucky was too far NW. It was February 15th 2004. There was an arc of snow from Cumberland, to Morgan, to Anderson, to Campbell and Claiborne County and east along the border but not as heavy to the East. I missed work the next day because I had 8 inches of snow and people in West Knoxville didn't believe me. Wartburg, Lancing, and Southeast Scott like Winfield had 8 to 12 inches as well. Norris had 4 inches and so did Tazewell to the East. Johnson City got 2 inches but almost .8 precip. So it must have changed over to snow or from snow there. Morristown had 1.7 inches of snow, and .7 precip. Knoxville got rain, Oak Ridge got rain, Lenoir City got rain.
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