EasternLI

Always. I personally believe a significant portion of the reason for that is tropical convection. Which is tricky. I don't like the very long range models at all. I've read a study once, that said even a theoretical "perfect" model wouldn't be effective beyond 2 weeks. Even if it had far more computing power than is available currently. That's the reason I ignore them, for the most part.

It's so hard to have an idea what actually happens. As bluewave posted in the December thread, even NOAA notes how unusual this is. But it's far far better to be where we are now instead of being stuck in 3/4 currently.

I do believe that a Pacific flip is in the cards. The jet extension is the catalyst IMO. That's happening. But what does the MJO do? Not sure. The models have tried to move it along previously this year and it got stuck. Models are terrible with the MJO and this year has been even more challenging. So I'm just trying to keep an open mind and look at it objectively.

I'm a little wary of that Euro MJO forecast. It did try to push it to phase 8 late. The GEFS however seemed to back off a little and is slower. They were in better agreement yesterday IMO. Reminder, I'm not using those RMM charts. I'm looking at the what the ensembles are actually doing with the MJO. I'd just like to see some consistent agreement here.

It was very hot and dry that summer. We had a historic wildfire out here that year because of that. The recurving tropical observation is an interesting one as well.

Now that I'm thinking about it again. It was a more central Pacific la Niña, which had no business doing what it did. However, it did have a +PDO. I've read some recent research which does show that to be an important factor indeed. Which is because it can modulate the wave driving from enso. So I'm guessing it played a major role actually when I think about it. I never really used to think much of the PDO. I always viewed it as more of an indicator of the previous seasons pattern, but it is actually quite important in it's own right apparently.

WAG but I'm digging the 8-10th period to maybe do something. Fingers crossed.

I do think there's some merit to considering the prior year enso to the following year. I'm sure that there are some sort of lag effects somewhere. And I'm usually bearish on a 2nd year la Niña lol. This year though, is a little different so far. So it's interesting.

95-96 was so odd from what I've seen. A strange la Niña that one. For a few reasons.

I really enjoyed both. 13-14 felt like it was constant tracking. Just always something on the radar. I remember being worn out once that was over, but it was fun.

Yeah, I remember lurking in NE and coastalwx was at the breaking point in January lol

December 2014? That was an inferno IIRC

Really cool to watch

This is what @brooklynwx99 was illustrating. HM talks about these often. Watch the High descending in east Asia. This is already in progress. The jet then extends, and the ridge gets blasted poleward. This is something we need to keep an eye on moving forward.

Yeah, you're not wrong. Some use 50mb some use 30mb. That is very annoying. Agreed.

If we really were to get a look like that globally, after the hits the PV is taking currently...... It wouldn't like it

A couple things about that. It was made in October. So back then, all there really is to go off of is the la Niña. So that's exactly what that is. A cookie cutter forecast of la Niña. That's because, la Niña usually has convection pinned in the Maritime Continent. Which is colder in early winter. This year is being a little different so far.

It's kind of interesting too, with how the MJO got stuck like this. It's created a persistent westerly wind anomaly a bit closer to the central Pacific. That was previously stuck by the Maritime Continent. This has started warming the water there a bit. It's set to stay there for the foreseeable. It'd be interesting to see if there's any ramifications from this.

That's really quite interesting. Slow movement was expected, but this is getting pretty ridiculous. Much worse places that it could be stuck though, for sure.

I'll believe it when I see it, but we'll see.

Merry Christmas everyone Wishing everyone happiness and good health.

Gefs and the eps trying to shift the MJO a little bit east in extreme clown range. But they've tried this before though too. Just thought I'd make mention of it since both kind of did it this time.

Here we go. This is the little snippet that I remembered reading. It's in this paper. How Does the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Affect the Boreal Winter Tropospheric Circulation in CMIP5/6 Models? https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/33/20/jcliD200024.xml?tab_body=fulltext-display For most models and the reanalysis, the height response over the North Pacific to the QBO is mainly explained by the direct downward-arching of the equatorial stratospheric winds. Specifically, the arching easterlies during EQBO correspond to a high height response in the reanalysis and some models There's also some interesting points regarding the NAO and modeling. Which isn't really surprising as that's always been a fickle area. A strong negative (positive) NAO-like response is observed during EQBO (WQBO) winters in JRA-55 (Fig. 2a; also see Fig. 7 in Gray et al. 2018), while both lobes of the NAO (i.e., the low center in the midlatitude Atlantic and the high center in high latitudes) during EQBO are somewhat underestimated even in the ensemble mean of good models

Yes, I remember that. There was a specific height level of the QBO he focused on for that. I wish I could remember exactly. It doesn't seem to be online anymore. What I'm talking about is something else though. I'm just speculating that maybe the QBO aided the amplitude of the ridge somewhat directly. So we see a record -PNA episode as a result. Just a hypothesis. I'd have to find the paper on that and read it again.

I've been thinking a little bit about that record -PNA business. I think it's actually possible that the QBO could be contributing to the Pacific ridge directly. I remember reading that the QBO actually has a surface reflection. In the form of North Pacific high pressure. But only in EQBO and la Niña. I'll have to dig around for that.