Jackstraw

Don't know how long you'll be there but we always try to hit the Foellinger-Freimann Botanical Conservatory especially around Xmas it's pretty cool. PS: When you first came to this forum I told you the weather around here can send you to the looney bin lol.

Well at least we can live vicariously in these modern time. l will say big snows in the Blue Ridge are something speial to experience. http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/king-street-boone/

Compare this map to the natural tracks of storms across the conus...

Sure there are in the geographic carving of this board, I never said there weren't. I said density. You also said NE AND Mid Atlantic. Combining the East coast bias of this board (it was originally Eastern Wx and manifest destined its way west to American Wx) with the fact that due to natural storm tracks a single event will tend to affect a greater population of the subs you mention than a single event in this sub. You're naturally going to get more IMBY posts from those subs. The late Nov. storm here was boring IMBY but was a big deal to the NW. A gulf hurricane such as Michael will affect nearly every state in the SE sub. The tornadoes of 2013 here only affected parts of 2 states for the most part yet it was one of the biggest fall tornado outbreaks in history. I mean just the NYC sub has almost twice as many posts as all the other subs, is their weather all that exciting? Density, IMBY posts. Perhaps I misunderstood your Midwest is boring comment.

What I wouldn't give to be dropping some pitchers of PBR at the Saloon watching this pan out. Enjoy! http://www.resortcams.com/webcams/king-street-boone/

You're seriously going to compare the Midwest with the NE/Mid Atlantic areas which are the most densely populated areas of the country? Sorry, I perused the SE boards for many years (still do) when I lived there and if there wasn't a cane or a severe outbreak there wasn't a whole lot to talk about except 95 75 every day during the summer and 40 and rain during the winter. Sure they got a good snow storm last year and again this year. It was a pretty "boring" board outside of that last winter. I can guarantee you if Cat 3 was ready to make landfall in Chicago the thread would crash this site. When we get our once or twice a decade "Big Dog" you'll see the lurkers come out. A 6" snow isn't "that" big of a deal around here. I think you'll find that the posting here is petty consistent throughout the year no matter the weather extremes, something I really like. And btw, just because you live in a geographic area doesn't limit you to your posts or anything else. I post and read other areas of the country where I've lived and am familiar with the weather. Don't judge just because it hasn't happened in the couple years you've been here. Edit: You have the right to your opinion and it is respected, kinda a "Midwest" thing. But for someone that's supposedly from the deep south you certainly sound like a Carpetbagger when you post something like that. Just rubbed me the wrong way being born in the midwest but spent more than half my life in the deep south. Peace

The SE storm thread for this weekend has 4k posts lol. I'd say they be a little excited.

I'll take 10 days of nickle dime January cutters. Normally if we get a big dog it's preceded and followed my mud making warmth. Seems that's the best way to pile up a snow pack around here.

Got 1.5 today with the passing of the front. I'll call this the first snow of te season around here.

Get used to "Wedge's" and "CAD's". When I first moved to SC from Fl. 17 years ago I didn't know what the heck they were talking about. thought they we're sandwiches lol. We got about 4 or 5 inches of snow in Charleston area around '07 I think. You'd a thought it was the blizzard of '78! Its looking like the Piedmont may be looking at their biggest storm in decades from GSP's AFD.... We are approaching increases in the official fcst QPF cautiously since even modest snow ratios from these values would result in snow/sleet accumulations that might be a once-in-a-generation event for parts of the Piedmont

So much for optimism lol. Got 3 or 4 tenths last night, roads were covered this morning for the first time lol.

Get's a taste of honey, wants the whole hive

Think we'll see some trends N in the next 24-36 hours, just how far will be the question. The track was much more favorable a few days ago or so before the big jump south. GEFS has been nudging north the last few runs.

Speak for yourself lol.! Its been cricket quiet round here

APN 72" ORD 30" CLE 91" CMH 27" DET 41" FWA 36" GRR 75" GRB 49" IND 31" LSE 31" YXU 64" SDF 14" MQT 212" MSP 30" MLI 34" PAH 22" PIA 20" STL 16" YYZ 46" Tiebreakers 1. December 2018 snowfall ORD 4.5" 2. January 2019 snowfall IND 12" 3. February 2019 snowfall DTW 10.5"

From Greenville/Spartenburg AFD today. They seem to be biting hard on it, even referencing the GFS>AVN protoype. Say it aint so Joe, don't think I can handle the SE getting a big dog before my grass even gets covered again this year. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 300 PM Sunday: Confidence is increasing on a potential major winter storm event next weekend. The 12z global models and ensembles all agree on the general set up. A split flow regime across the CONUS to start the medium range, with progressing from the Northern Plains to New England, while a southern stream trough enters southern California. Confluent flow between the two troughs will allow a fairly strong area of high pressure to drop south into the Midwest Thursday into Friday. Below normal temps are expected, with a reinforcing dry cold front pushing thru the area. By Friday evening, the high will migrate to the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes (still around 1038 mb). The high will be elongated east- west, with the eastern edge of the air mass spilling into the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, the California trough will eject to the Southern Plains and induce a sfc low along a baroclinic zone along the TX/LA coast. Both the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on isent lift and frontogenesis spreading moisture and QPF north and east of the low into the cold air across the Southeast states. This should diabatically enhance classic cold air damming across the Carolinas, bringing in even colder air. Using the p-type nomograms with a blend of GFS/ECWMF, it still looks like a mixed-bag of p-types, at least on the onset. The high terrain looks to be cold enough to be pretty much all snow. However, as the low reaches the GA/FL coasts in Miller-A fashion, the p-type looks to become more of a ra/sn event, with the position of the ra/sn line still in question. The 12z ECMWF and the FV3-GFS have come in colder and suggest that even the Upstate and Charlotte areas may see a lot of the QPF as sleet and snow. Storm total QPF of 1-2" certainly suggests that whoever gets wintry precip will see warning criteria accums. There is still plenty of time for the details to change. So for the time being, readers keep abreast of the latest information on the winter storm potential next weekend.

Surface low had an odd "Cam" look about it through this today. Was kinked to the east. Almost negative tilted 90 degrees from what would be expected. Like a missed uppercut

Kinda of like a quasi plains dry line setup. Most of the tornadic storms are forming right on the nose of the low level moisture plume. Better dynamics to the south some all day. Just thought it was interesting from my feeble perspective lol. Current warned storm right on the nose again...

If that doesn't have an "Off to see the Wizard look"!

Good call... DISCUSSION...Supporting mid-level forcing for ascent (as inferred from water vapor imagery) continues to gradually pivot northeastward through northern/central Illinois. The southern periphery of this forcing appears likely to remain roughly along/north of the I-70 corridor, and provide the southern limit to ongoing and subsequent thunderstorm initiation.

Surface low should be right on top of me in the morning. I'll toss it a beer for ya lol.

The Halloween storm of 2014 that LOT is alluding to concerning flooding didn't have the winter stuff going on with it did it? Not familiar enough but I would think if this pans out could get messy.

I tend to err on the side of caution when the HRRR starts cranking out snow totals like that (could be my location that I always err on the side of caution lol) but if the 500mb charts it's spitting out get some backup from the other models I would take a guess and say there may be some Blizzard warnings extended into IL. just because of the travel day and morning commute on Mon.

While most models are forecasting some strong winds just above the surface, the Euro is keeping the strongest (30-50 mph, gusts to 60) along the southern fringe of the steep snow line cutoff. That combined with fairly low ratios, heavy wet snow may be why there hasn't been Blizzard warnings issued up through Illinois, not sure.

Under severe weather parameters