Jackstraw

It just started snowing lol. This is a hell of a lot more ice than I expected.

We could very well end up with more ice and sleet than snow here. the bulk of the defo looks like it could cut to the se Haven't had a flake yet. The only blowing anything we might get are transformers lol.

Its a god awful mess out here. .25 in of ice if not more sagging tree limbs everywhere it's going to get scary this evening.

IWX must of seen my confusion last week lol..

had every type of frozen precip known to man except snow here. Pushing a 1/4 inch of ice. These winds tonight are really going to be a concern with the amount of ice.

Blizzard to Blizzturd... tonight on 60 Minutes Investigates

It's been snowing for 2 hours 2 miles to the north lol.

YeeHaw!! nothin but crap around here lol

Saw thunderstorm and 33 degrees a bit ago SW of Springfield.

Sounding off the HRRR for you I think right around this time frame. Decent DGZ but not a lot to reflect back? I don't know worth a shot.

--That happened with me last week There was even about an hour of nearly 0 DBZ and some of the the biggest flakes of the event were flying at decent rates.

Southern convection I tell ya. Some of the models leave the china on the table some don't when the table cloth is pulled

That wasn't a "storm". That was a Gweneth Paltrow love scene. Slow innocent and white. Give me a full on Angelina blizzard any day lol.

Yes, as I posted from the KIND aviation discussion they were talking a few 10th's of a degree change could mean all the difference That's a super tough forecast.

Geez, the high res models are telling the globals to go f#%k themselves tonight.

Never mind I gotcha.

Are you basing that off of the HRRR? Not saying it won't happen, it's been the biggest concern for IND proper. I'm 50 miles n so if you've got some insight this way send it lol.

Hate to keep beatin a dead horse but I told ya the weather around here will put you in the loony bin lol.

Wag the dog

KIND's Aviation discussion describes the challenges for their forecast quite well.. The challenges begin when it comes to the degree of warming aloft with the system and ultimately the impacts that will have on precip type...especially Saturday morning. There continues to be a zone where mixed precipitation looks likely near and just south of I-70. Model soundings though bear out the challenges in precip type as temperatures near freezing exist between 2500 and 4500 ft for several hours near and after daybreak Saturday. Any fluctuation of a few tenths of a degree either way could be the difference between mainly snow and a mixture of snow...freezing rain...sleet or even rain.

This is above my own head so quasi-educated guessing but I know southern convection has been somewhat of a a concern and is not well modeled sometimes (I think it really messes with the NAM/GFS) as to robbing moisture. It seems to me that with a more W-E progression of this system as opposed to a sharper cutter the convection should lag behind the moisture plume feeding this system. Some of the models have shown a quick "drying out" on a few runs on the backside of this system So I'm curious if below could be the reason some of the wrap around moisture gets cut off.....

The point of all this snow is to cover up all of the mud! If I can squeeze 5 or 6 out this weekend or even more and end up with a potential foot snow pack (lost about 5 inches this week) it really sucks it could all be for not and end up with bare ground to maybe a dirty 2 or 3 inches moving into an epic cold snap. Clippers and the back side of next weeks storm my only saving grace.

That just chopped me off at the knees

Yes been waiting for his post all day. How longs it been for thunder snow for you? If I could get in on that it'd be like my 100 year old grandpa gettin' some lol.

The GFS has jumped way south and way up with snow totals in the last 24 hrs. The "mystereee" continues. I'm shutting the model pages off at 00Z. They're reminding me of the 'ol lady going through the change lol. *Edited for dyslexia