Jackstraw

Don't know how accurate it is but the 00z Euro on weather.us starting to show lightning up into N. Central Illinois.

If this has been posted apologize. ... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 819 PM CST Sat Nov 24 2018 .UPDATE... 819 PM CST Have issued a lake shore warning for Cook County IL as well as Lake and Porter Counties in Indiana for Sunday night into Monday morning. Lake levels remain nearly 3 feet above chart datum and around 1 foot higher than the Halloween storm of 2014 which flooded north bound lanes of Lake Shore Dr in Chicago. Tough to say just how bad the lake shore flooding will get, comparing this set-up to the Oct 2014 event, this event has a more favorable wind direction and higher lake levels, but the fetch of the strongest winds will be shorter and the duration of the high winds will be less. Given the expectation of near storm force onshore winds Sunday night, there is definitely a potential for flooding making it to Lake Shore Dr, so have opted to with a warning rather than an advisory.

Meso agrees...

Seems like they all are slowing and strengthening the upper levels after the sampling yesterday allowing more of the Pacific moisture to wrap up.

Thats the winter version of this...

GFS has a bit of a severe look out in fantasy land around the 1st - 2nd. All I have to look at right now lol.

Happy T'giving!

I know it's early but central IN starting off where we left off. I hope the recent pattern can carry on into the colder months, keeps the potential up but I'm, gonna be glass half empty this year.

Pinger city here now

Yeah I just realized I was looking at TT model lol. Pivotal NAM actually dropped amounts to crap. Might be messy.

18Z NAM ramping up totals, 3-5, across central southern IN and OH.

Freeze warnings all the way down to Brownsville TX. That's gotta be pretty rare in Nov.

Came down at a decent clip for a bit last night for an hour or so. Might have gotten .5 on the unraked leaves.

Low level dry air going to be an issue around here. Another windshield dusting is my call.

Amazingly -SN here and no rain yet w/ 35F

Yeah not really expecting any accumulations around here, maybe a dusting on the windshield. KIND covering their butts just in case though lol..... Precipitation will mainly be in the form of rain across the southern portions of the forecast area, but a rain/snow mixture will affect the north, eventually turning to all snow. The best chances will be a quick burst of snow showers from Fri 06-12Z when a 120 plus upper level jet provides some additional forcing. Will not rule out a quick 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation across the north central counties.

Euro hot on the heels for Mon. Tues. for us a little to the south

#1. 1/25/78 #2. 1/25/78 #3 1/25/78 #4. 1/25/78 #5. 1/25/78 Only true blizzard I ever experienced. Was 16. We lived on a small farm near Arcadia In. My father and I were able to get into Elwood on our old IH tractor (coldest ride ever!) and got our service station opened up. Was the only place emergency vehicles etc. could get fuel. They imposed travel restrictions for 3 days. If you could get out and help the police gave you a big round red sticker to put on your windshield, without it you would be arrested. So my friend and I made our own big red round sticker and put t on his Jeep CJ5 and played around trying to kill ourselves lol. (We did run supplies to friends and relatives, but hey, it was the 70's ). The whole town was pretty much isolated for 3 or 4 days. It was a wild few days to say the least.

Blue dog weather if it pans out. As much as I want some action be nice if itt fizzles. Sorry, couldn't resist, spank my socialist ass Hoosier.

If we start seeing insane 1060+ ridges on the models moving down out of Canada Snowless might want to move back to GA.

I just want a real winter around these parts. It's been 5 years since we've had a decent one.

Pretty cool seeing all these little outflow boundaries on radar running out ahead of these little cells

From IWX 2:30 Discussion.... sucks .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 235 PM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018 In stark contrast to the active short term...long term period is incredibly dull.

Could it happen here?

I can't think of a better tool than this video to show people why they need to evacuate storm surge prone areas. It really shows how quickly and how powerful the wind and water combined come ashore. Too often people see water levels rise over a period of many hours, this was true storm surge. It went from nothing to maybe 4 feet of water w 3 or 4 ft waves on top in 15-20 min. And that was w/ the wind and surge coming from the E/SE somewhat paralleling that coastline. The video quit before the the winds became more perpendicular to the coastline. That location looked like it never saw the eye proper but stayed in the eyewall (maybe even the outer fringes) throughout. The backside surge can be just as bad. I couldn't imagine back in the days of Camille being half toasted at a hurricane party in a house sitting at or just above sea level, and having even worse than this come barreling through. I dont care about the blame game stuff, I don't blame race car drivers, it's their choice and we all still like to watch. Regardless, glad they're ok.