Jackstraw

Take it to the banter thread. Don't clog this thread up unless you have something substantial to add and can back it up.... Sorry, I'm a bit intoxicated at the thought of mud finally being replaced with virgin white snow, caused a DT outbreak lol.

Wouldn't be surprised if KIND added some counties north to the watch/warning in the overnight as the 00Z models come in. Column seems to saturate quicker on the models at least in Central In. Even the Grinchy GFS is being generous. I'm Lebowski excited now.

The 'ol lady said it's gonna happen, "the pink looks just like one of our dogs" lmao

Can't help it that's the Battle of Helms Deep man!

This needs its own discussion thread, and a soundtrack.

Speaking of ice. I'm still trying to figure out why KIND is forecasting freezing rain as a possibility up here. I haven't seen a model warm the column up this way. Might be above my head why but not sure why we are getting freezing rain mixed when points south aren't.

You're spoiled, you've been away from pinger town too long

I don't have a lot of faith in any model during winter but this damn FV3 has been pumping 7-10 inches for me for 5 or 6 runs. If it happens the FV3 will be my God for the rest of the winter lol.

KIND pulled the trigger on a WSW just north and south of I70. for 4-7 (There ya go Buck!) Still calling for 2-4 to the north with freezing rain?

I love the optimism of us Central In. folks lmao

That's a good bet right now. If it pans out as currently forecast totals in Central In. will depend on the low level dry air. The quicker the column saturates the better. Models currently showing 70-80% humidity at the onset so it won't take much. There's also some convection down south that could potentially sap some moisture. It's not going to be a storm per se, just 24 hours of snow globe. There can be surprises + or -. I'll take what I can get and agree 2-4 is a good call right now.

Those warm 850's need to stop nudging North.

IF the FV3 solution verifies this could be biggest single event total in the last 6 or 7 years around here at 8 or 9 inches. Not a lot of confidence in that. Still time for Lucy. Better bet is less right now. Just sayin', we're a little overdue

Any molded before 12Z Thursday is over/under/sideways done as far as I'm concerned.

I'm still waiting to get inside 72. Except for the big dog in the SE this year model accuracy has sucked outside 3 days, even 2. Climo wise us folks in the central parts of IL/IN/OH are just now entering our statistical "winter" when it comes to snow so if this pans out I'll take it as a good sign

Da Bears

These models are as chaotic as hanging out with Henry Chinaski at the Golden Horn.

Just north up here I've measure about 1.5. That was one snow, probably another inch on top of that in .25 inch increments. Sad but I don't expect much around here until J/F unless we get a N/D surprise. I'm still optimistic but if I start seeing a suppressed storm track as the cold sets in I'm gonna need some mind altering medication, not the fun kind lol. Only thing I can say so far is my heating bill has free'd up some cash.

Don't trust it. Every 12 hours these models are showing something different. They are grasping at the timing as the only cold air around is at night. Have a storm pass after 11am and its rain. Have a storm pass after 9pm it's snow. The LL temps are oscillating in that 25 to 35 range daily. Just shows what happens when the Pacific takes a leak on our jet streams. If it pans out I will definitely be de- suppressed lol.

At least the complaint thread isn't "Hot" anymore lol.

My dogs, my bones and my beard and nature around here are hip to that 100%!

Well only 2 things can happen. Dismember (lol) continues through the next month or we get crushed as we move into the heart of winter. Still have 8 to 10 week left. I don't trust any of these models beyond 48-72 hours, they are consistently changing run to run. No science here but I think we get crushed sometime between 1/15 and V-Day. The rubber band has to snap as we've been below normal SN going on 4 or 5 years straight. We have been having ducks and geese winter around here the past few years and they are nowhere to be found this year that I've seen. Just a gut feeling but like slow hurricane years, it only takes one to make that year infamous.

My dogs (New Foundlands and Landsears) winter coats are thicker than I've ever seen them and this old mans beard has been growing twice as fast the past couple months (weird but it seriously has). According to those 2 forecast models we have a brutal stretch coming up in Jan-Feb. lol.

Already trending good, 48 hours ago wasn't even there lol.