Jackstraw
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Everything posted by Jackstraw
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I changed God's the last system so I'll stand at the FV3 alter, but I am fickle lol.
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I tend to reference it for the mid levels when tracking the tropics, with as well, dare I say it, the NAM strictly for steering above 500mb as tropical systems approach the coastline.
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There's always this insanity! Ya never know lol.
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Starting to get a kitchen sink feeling for the onset. I'm Cyclone greedy now that I've had a taste lol.
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That GFS run was like Snowfreak cranked the magnet to 11 then blew the power grid releasing the low to jump back east lol.
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I'll take one for the team for an hour or so so folks N can get in on the game but lets keep this track lol.
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850's getting uncomfortably close this run.
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Yeah those 850's are too close for comfort.
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Could be looking at 40-50 with this one if it performs which ain't to shabby. Setup is different and as you posted before isobar distance makes a big difference.
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The OP Euro with winds 25-40 gusts 35 to 50 through central IN up through west central - NW OH and SEMI Sat. night. That would make 6 in of snow seem like 2 feet.
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I'm all for a late cut just keep that warm tongue south of me.
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After the last 4 or 5 winters if this pans out its hitting the lottery. I'm changing my name and hiding from the relatives lol
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If that 00Z FV3 verifies, with the cold coming in behind its gonna be winter till March lol
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Man I'm licking my lips, That gradient keeps getting better every 24 hours. I haven't been in a blizzard since 78.
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qpf outputs across the board with consensus on these models is kinda scary this far out.
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One similarity between all of the AFD's from Iowa through Ohio, "If you have travel plans this weekend please be aware" etc or something like that. There were 7 deaths across the board attributed to last weekends snow. Not sure if the wording is in response or if they see the potential for a really big debilitating widespread storm. I've just never seen consistent wording like that across so many AFD's this far out.
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Yes there's more pieces but the possibility of a stronger storm as in wind and rates is much higher with this one as opposed to the last one. Don't think this one is going to be a nice 24-36 hour pixie fest, should have more teeth if it pans out.
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Looks like a couple of strong clippers could come in behind next week.
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This past weekend put a dent into my winter pessimism but thats about it. I'm still not going to be confident until 12Z Thursday. Still concerned with suppression even for my area. I'd much rather have a big cutter so at least some of the sub gets some even if my area white knuckles it. I don't like the strength of those ridges and the gateway for the frigid air opening up so close together. There's a scent of a SE special in the air.
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The timing couldn't be better with these possible 2 or 3 systems coming through at the same time as the PV responds to the strat warming a couple of weeks ago. How much of these storms is a direct response to that is above my head but I don't think it always happens.
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If this coming weekend pans out with possible warning criteria fro MN to MO all the way east to the Mid Atlantic and NE one things for sure. This weather board is going to crash lol.
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I agree, I think suppression is a big concern with next weekend. For points N with the first wave and then points south with the second. Those are some pretty strong ridges coming back to back down out of Canada.
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No you've ruined me. My method had me just over 10, double digits for this one. Now I'm probably at 8 or 9. I'm tying the noose lookin for my kick chair.
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Ok I get it. So if you get blasted with 10 inches in 6 hours but it compacts to 8 inches the official result is the 8 inches. Wasn't sure. Now I have to have 3 boards in the yard, hourly rate, 3 hour rate and total, and storm total. Thought you were going to make my life easy for a minute lol.
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I'm enjoying this and trying not to pay attention to my 3 days of rain/snow mix P&C forecast next week lol. Think we've lost forcing north of I70, hopefully southern In. can pull a last minute coup.
