Jackstraw

I would think that cell approaching Bowling Green needs TOR warned. Nice hook, rotation and inflow notch on radar. Was warned 30 min ago

Storms becoming more cellular in central KY. Was a possible debris ball on CC on the one warned just N of Bowling Green but it's also showing a nasty hail core so don't know.

Isolate supercells popping along the MO/AR border, they all are showing rotation and a couple TOR warned.

Tropical season is gonna be a blast this year lol.

If this Tournament storm keeps showing up Cyclone needs to start the thread, he called it a month out

Euro and Canuk showing some legit arctic air setting in for a couple days late next week/weekend. If it happens and we can get a system come through to tap into it Biloxi will probably get a foot

I don't think I've ever seen this much consistent inconsistency in the models in winter over the conus in my short years following. 1 or 2 hundred miles on tracks this far out, sure. But we've been seeing 3 to 5 hundred mile to shredded nothingness this winter. I know in the tropics models always struggle with weak systems and with weak steering. There really hasn't been strong ridges and strong lows this season and hardly any deep arctic air dropping down, for a lot of reasons that have been posted, and the baroclinic zone has been very low this winter IMO . I wonder if this is causing the problem with the models across the conus. With such a consistent weak split flow across the conus, as fine a resolution as some have (and that is totally subjective) it's just not fine enough to whittle out the details and/or how much climo is influencing some of them (I'm not sure how much climo data they put weight on). Regardless, if this keeps up, I think this may be one of the worse model verification winters in a long time because damn near none of them have verified, especially in our area, for snowfall, or QPF for that matter, outside 24 hours. They're not even verifying that well in the mountains out to the W/NW where it should be close to cut and dry. The mountains in BC should have about 800 inches of snow by now lol. Just my armchair 2 cents but something is really strange this winter model wise. Maybe it will snap back late and cover some of the models butts, however, as has been posted, the long range models don't look that good. But then again 2 months ago the long range looked better than it is right now. If this pans out this may be a winter to study the complete failure IMO of the "new and improved" models across the board. I'll wait for someone smarter than me (which are many) and read the book.

I'm going to code my own model running an algorithm that inputs data from keywords from our sub forum. I bet it's clown maps would be as accurate run to run as these sooper compooters

PT Barnum model

When GRR is optimistic times are tough

With nothing but a possible dab the next 10 days around here on the models (except for the Canuk ), this January has the potential to be pretty much snowless here except for a couple dustings. If that pans out then I'll be looking for a Feb. early March big dog to bookend us the other 2/3rds to our average. Still learning the teleconection stuff but there were several really strong TC's in the WPAC late this year and am just curious if they just pumped extra heat into the northern latitudes and into the Pacific jet and how that influences the PV behavior. At least it doesn't look like the deep freeze is setting in over the next couple weeks. I might start to lose it if we start getting 1050-60 Canadian ridges suppressing the storm track south or east. Current pattern sucks but has a better chance for something as opposed to a deep cold snowless depre ..er..suppression.

It's still snowing here

Albeit that's usually me after midnight, but that damn near made me spit out my coffee lol.

Thar's one thing about living here in the hinterland of winter anxiety, getting hopes up is mea culpa. But on the flip side if it does happen it's like a one night stand with the Lawrence Welk girls in a tub of olive oil

Last 5 runs of the Euro have been pretty consistent on 4-6 inches from about 30 miles east of me all the way up through Toledo inside 72 hours, then another 3-4 with the second system. I'd lock it in except it's all alone with that forecast. Timing is going to be the secret (as it usually is around here until January). Get something coming through during the overnight our chances for snow increase 2 fold.

Euro, GFS and Canuk all have something coming through the Ohio valley around the 23rd-24th with the Euro down by the river, the Canuk just north of Chitown and the GFS running along I-70.

Thanks for the jinx. I'll buy some coconut oil and keep a couple pairs of shorts out for a Xmas cookout now lol.

My big sugar maples just dropped 5 inches of leaves the last 2 days if I slant stick it. If the NAM verifies in the short term and then a refresh midweek it'll look like a foot lol. Btw, is depth to measured off the dirt or whatever is above the dirt. If it's above I'll stop mowing the end of August so I can feel good about a 2 inch misery snow

Yeah I was surprised to see this much discussion on a GFS run this far out. Think the Halloween event triggered some irrational thinking like if you had a first date with the head cheerleader in high school and she teased you into thinking the second date was going to be THE date lol. Regardless I bought a bottle of my winter single barrel a little early this year just in case.

You mean like 5 years ago the GFS would spit out a 10 day clown map of 2 feet from St. Louis to Detroit or the last couple years a 3 day clown map of 36 inches from Dallas to Toledo. I swear the last couple years all of the models have been terrible. The local forecast offices need to get off the model teet and get back to some good old fashioned forecasting. Don't bash me I'm just sayin'. Reliance on technology can be a crutch when there's a bug in the system. Youtube, Tesla, sleeping drivers. Just sayin'

I've never been able to tweet embed. True story

Spent about 15 years in Fl. Experienced some good ones. Some I chased some didn't have to. Elena (72 hours of hell), Andrew (West coast still a monster), Katrina (scariest cat 1/2 ever), Ivan (was prepared and actually enjoyed it) to name a few. I'm of the opinion know where you live. Canes come with the territory down there so deal with it and prepare yourself. For most of Fl. it's not that hard to evacuate 20 or 30 miles inland (if you have to go that far) if you live within 5 miles of the coast and then hunker down. If you live in Fl. and your evac plan is Georgia move back up north lol. Pinellas county (St. Pete, Clearwater, Largo area where I lived) is just a disaster waiting to happen however because there's just nowhere to go. Water on 3 sides, an average above sea level of about 15-20 feet, 4 bridges and a highway paralleling the coast north the only way out for about 1 million people to evacuate. It's been like 100 years since that area was slammed with a big dog and it will happen again. IMO that area is a powder keg during cane season.

Pretty crazy stuff from the KILM Disco.... This will likely be the storm of a lifetime for portions of the Carolina coast, and that`s saying a lot given the impacts we`ve seen from Hurricanes Diana, Hugo, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, and Matthew. I can`t emphasize enough the potential for unbelievable damage from wind, storm surge, and inland flooding with this storm.

Well Ryan said google it lol. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Arabian_Peninsula_tropical_cyclones That would be an amazing sight especially just after landfall. I wonder if there is plant/animal(not necessarily multi cell) life in the area that lays dormant until such an event happens.