Jackstraw

I live about 50 miles N of I-70 which always puts me in a white knuckle slop zone as opposed to closer to I-70 where it can be a little more cut and dry. I agree the potential for seasonal repeat is there but this one is a bit different than the past few with, albeit coming in later, cold air to work with, the warm nose doesn't have the northward push as the past few systems and we're not going into it with 40-50 degree temps prior. Most of the models have warm 850's to my south some as close as 5 miles lol. 2m temps may be at or just above freezing on the onset but I've noticed the models have been over doing 2m temps the past couple storms. Get some decent heavy precip rates at the onset could negate that along with cloud cover and previous lows in the mid 20's. I also have a classic forecast office battle going on with KIND going 1-3 and IWX going 3-5 two miles to my north. I'm going all in with the short stack this season calling 6-7 through Thursday afternoon. If that all sounds like someone in denial, well yeah lol! Long term this looks like my last hurrah except for a late season long shot big dog so why not

Flipped to rain, sometimes heavy rain about an hour ago with temp back up to 34. When it was snowing it was the biggest flakes of the season, half dollars. +SN on the onset then flipped to sleet/rain, melted then went back to +SN again for about an hour. Got about an inch twice lol. Just a freakin mess out there now.

Quite the WAA battle going on here. Got a quick inch flipped to light freezing drizzle/sleet now back to parachutes.

I'm on the north side of the mediocre winter climo for this sub so it's really got to be bad for me to complain. I need to pick up 20 inches to reach average this year. Wouldn't be so bad if I had a year in the last 8 that was 20 inches over but only had 2 that were at or slightly above average since I moved back. The only good thing about this trend is slowly lowering the average thereby lowering expectations. Geez, next year if I get 6 in 24 hours with a 25mph wind I'll be comparing it to 77

Euro and Canuk showing some legit arctic air setting in for a couple days late next week/weekend. If it happens and we can get a system come through to tap into it Biloxi will probably get a foot

ZZZZZ

I could piss out my back door into a 20mph 25 degree wind and it would be a top 10 event this winter lol

We overperformed here with a non official 61 by 5 degrees (with a feels like temp of 80, I was sweating lol). We're supposed to "plummet" to 34 tonight, currently 43 then "soar" to 58 tomorrow. If we can stay sunny tomorrow I'm calling 63. Regardless took the day off to get some stuff done outside I missed because of "Winterfall".

I don't think I've ever seen this much consistent inconsistency in the models in winter over the conus in my short years following. 1 or 2 hundred miles on tracks this far out, sure. But we've been seeing 3 to 5 hundred mile to shredded nothingness this winter. I know in the tropics models always struggle with weak systems and with weak steering. There really hasn't been strong ridges and strong lows this season and hardly any deep arctic air dropping down, for a lot of reasons that have been posted, and the baroclinic zone has been very low this winter IMO . I wonder if this is causing the problem with the models across the conus. With such a consistent weak split flow across the conus, as fine a resolution as some have (and that is totally subjective) it's just not fine enough to whittle out the details and/or how much climo is influencing some of them (I'm not sure how much climo data they put weight on). Regardless, if this keeps up, I think this may be one of the worse model verification winters in a long time because damn near none of them have verified, especially in our area, for snowfall, or QPF for that matter, outside 24 hours. They're not even verifying that well in the mountains out to the W/NW where it should be close to cut and dry. The mountains in BC should have about 800 inches of snow by now lol. Just my armchair 2 cents but something is really strange this winter model wise. Maybe it will snap back late and cover some of the models butts, however, as has been posted, the long range models don't look that good. But then again 2 months ago the long range looked better than it is right now. If this pans out this may be a winter to study the complete failure IMO of the "new and improved" models across the board. I'll wait for someone smarter than me (which are many) and read the book.

Seriously?

Just hit 60 here also. Grill's gonna be a challenge lol

Had about 1.5 hours of sun before noon today for the first time since like Xmas. Thank goodness. Went outside in my shorts to replenish my vitamin D deficiency.

As long as Chattanooga doesn't get more snow than us I'm game. I'm cautiously optimistic but that sure looks like the SE could get a paralyzing 6 incher.

I'm going to code my own model running an algorithm that inputs data from keywords from our sub forum. I bet it's clown maps would be as accurate run to run as these sooper compooters

Every morning looks like a painting by the dark side of Bob Ross when he forgot to take his meds for a couple days. Ain't no happy little trees or bushes. Just dreary depression day after day after day.

PT Barnum model

No science here obviously lol. But I really feel like this is going to be a bookend winter with a bunch of piss in the middle. My area is below normal precip wise, liquid/frozen -30%, and above normal temp wise +10%. Vegas odds are the rubber band snaps towards the middle to latter half of Feb to early March. The overall storm track tendency hasn't really changed since Aug/Sept and is very favorable for a big dog around here if one of these can just tap some cold air. Halloween cold air tap was a surprise. The split flow ninoesque pattern that followed was a surprise. But the potential deep winter cold air tap that is lurking to the north, and you can see it there, combined with this consistent storm track could very well lay down a late winter big dog. Models are trending colder in fantasy land for once this season, not just cold but some real arctic air intrusion but without deep suppressive ridging. I just feel like something has to give this winter to make the stars align, we are way overdue. All my years living next to the ocean and dealing with the tropics in the SE taught me one thing, it only takes one big one to even the score during years of drought. Or maybe it's just me having visions of Hank Stram when I was 8 years old thinking anything is possible lol.

When GRR is optimistic times are tough

We might see the moon one night lol.. Tonight Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 29. West southwest wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Sunday Cloudy, with a high near 35. West southwest wind 11 to 13 mph. Sunday Night Cloudy, with a low around 25. West northwest wind 6 to 9 mph. Monday Cloudy, with a high near 34. West northwest wind 6 to 8 mph. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Tuesday Cloudy, with a high near 36. Tuesday Night Cloudy, with a low around 28. Wednesday A slight chance of snow before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Thursday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Friday A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40.

IWX earlier today says it all... For Sunday through Thursday little if any precipitation is expected with seasonably mild temperatures for this time of year. Highs should be from around 35 to 40 each day with lows from the mid 20s to lower 30s each night. Most noticeable will be the absence of arctic air with the continued pattern of above normal temperatures (Fort Wayne has only had 3 days the temperature has been below normal during the past nearly 5 weeks).

Well at least we don't have to worry about this lmao...

With nothing but a possible dab the next 10 days around here on the models (except for the Canuk ), this January has the potential to be pretty much snowless here except for a couple dustings. If that pans out then I'll be looking for a Feb. early March big dog to bookend us the other 2/3rds to our average. Still learning the teleconection stuff but there were several really strong TC's in the WPAC late this year and am just curious if they just pumped extra heat into the northern latitudes and into the Pacific jet and how that influences the PV behavior. At least it doesn't look like the deep freeze is setting in over the next couple weeks. I might start to lose it if we start getting 1050-60 Canadian ridges suppressing the storm track south or east. Current pattern sucks but has a better chance for something as opposed to a deep cold snowless depre ..er..suppression.

We have 4 big dogs and a mop by the back door. I think my feelings on mud have been expressed over the years. Seems to be a running theme the past few winters. Mushy mud during the day then frozen boot piercing stalagmites at night.

Guess theres enough of us weather nerds to support a movie being made. Wasn't to bad actually... https://smile.amazon.com/gp/video/detail/B0812BZF9D/ref=atv_hm_hom_1_c_ZWyNDQ_0YgTDE_1_1

It's still snowing here