Jackstraw

KIND calling for 2-4 across the area ATM. Thats fine by me with the cold air settling in for awhile if it happens. Especially if next weeks system pans out. Will be interesting to see if the Euro caves tonight as it has. The odds have definitely gone down over the last 48 hours (figures lol). Along with the weak s/w, dry air and southern convection could come into play. We shall see, like I said worth a shot

00Z NAM sounding north central IN at 84 not too shabby. Upper trough seems a little sharper/deeper. Any northward trends favor the I-70 crew as there will probably be some wipers going back south. That's a pretty stout ridge to the NW but the orientation is more key in my feeble mind. What the hell do I know lol

Since I fired Cyclone I'll give it a shot for the first time lol. We're inside 120 hours so if this takes a crap I'll resign. Models have been consistent coming north of the OH river hinting at advisory to possible low end warning criteria snow for central southern IL/IN and central OH around 3/3-3/5 time frame. Potential App runner with some decent cold air in place would be a classic setup for some synoptic snow for the I-70 crew. GFS/FV3/GEM/Euro have all been coming north and a little more amped over the last 36 hours or so. Suppression and strength the only caveats I can see (like thats not enough lol.) as opposed to a strong WAA that's put the screws to us lately. If we're going to have this upcoming late season cold snap may as well paint the ground white one more time

Welcome to my world (- snowpack of course) lol

Bass ackwards I tell ya lol.

Yeah, we'll see as the week progresses. The clown maps make me jealous lol, but if the current winter pattern continues could be a late winter/early spring outbreak for the sub this year. We're due.

1 inch of crappola here. You're fired lol.

Explains my bit of sunshine this morning...

I'm going to go with 3-4 here. Looks like it could mix just to my south but if we can stay cold enough

OMG you said it! lol. I'm more interested in the moon angle till the Ides of March

All you needed to do was start event threads, we'd all have a Bo snow pack by now lol.

This

I don't know about up there but around here AEP has been very aggressive over the last 5 years trimming trees back from power lines.

My grade for this winter is slowly dropping from a B-. It's only getting a B because I'm grading on the curve of the last 5 or 6 years lol. We've had a couple nice events of 3-5 and one over 8 inches and a decent over performing ice event but it's this pesky cold -snow - torch - melt - rain back to cold sequence that's really getting old. Haven't been able to hold onto a snow pack at all (yeah my climo isn't the best for that but at least give me 14 days!). If I can go out with at least one more warning criteria snow the curve may just get it to an A, but it's gonna have to be a good one. Really not looking forward to a potential flooding spring, there's a very saturated water table around here.

Not Thunders fault, models have been crap this year outside 24-48 hours. GFS is trying to bring something back the 16th-20th lol.

NE IN, NW OH, far SEMI may be getting the worse of the ice overnight, possible 1 inch amounts. Nice moisture plume should over run the area in the next 4-6 hours with sub freezing surface temps. I'd be real concerned for some severe icing in those areas.

We got lucky a couple weeks ago. We got .25 to .3 with some strong winds right on the tail. Fortunately those winds only lasted an hour or less. I sincerely hope, with some of the modeled accretion rates, y'all don't get hammered. It's one thing to get paralyzed by a 20 inch 50 mph blizzard but a .5 to 1.0 inch ice storm with 30-40 mph winds really sucks.

From an aviation perspective this is a fairly dangerous setup that has caught many pilots off guard. There is a line from Central IL through N/Central IN that has a fairly low level melting layer above a much lower level freezing layer, roughly 2k-5k feet, that can catch an unprepared pilot off guard. You normally encounter these setups much higher but this setup is lower and has/can present issues.

It's kinda strange around here. We're hovering around 33-34 degrees with drizzle. It's not freezing on the roads or the vegetation but it's also not melting (completely) our little minuscule 3 inch snow pack, may have lost an inch. My unscientific measuring of ground temps around the yard are running 31-32 degrees with an air temp of 34. Probably looking at 36-38 up around 5k feet from aviation reports. Regardless it's messy slushy crap.

.75? That's scary stuff. I've seen 1-1.25 in the SE when I lived in SC and it was damn near as bad as a hurricane when it came to power outages but nowhere near the cold that follows like up here. I hope that doesn't come to fruition. It makes for great photography in the morning though lol.

Did you move to N Central IN.? Sounds like our weekly weather lately lol. At least it's going to be a normal WAA to snow progression for ya not bass ackwards like its been around here. You need to start the last thread of the winter damn it.

Yeah, it's been the story this winter. This winter has been bass ackwards. Normally we get warmth, rain, sleet/freezing rain, snow, then cold with these systems. This year it's been cold, snow, sleet/freezing rain, rain then torch. Bass ackwards winter I tell ya but I'll take it over last year lol. And on that theme finishing up here with about 3 and some vary light freezing drizzle.

Up to 2.5 and still moderate to occasional +SN. Really coming down right now with nickle flake size.

Nice little event going on here. picked up 1.5 in the last couple hours may even get to 2 if radar trends continue. Too bad its not gonna last.