weatherwiz

Definitely going to need some boundaries for enhancement given how poor the llvl flow is. CAPE though is pretty decent for these mlvl temps and there is good mlvl shear so storms that do develop and get good cores should sustain.

Saturday looks iffy with warm front moving through with some showers but the cold front moves through evening or overnight. May have to deal with some showers/thunder around for a part of Sunday but high pressure will be building in so second half of Sunday may be fine and right now Monday looks to be pretty decent.

Wednesday could be a big day, particularly west of here. Late show here but severe threat should persist into the overnight. EDIT: Lots of model uncertainty though with placement of some of the key features but with EML associated this should be watched. EML may weaken though as it approaches our area.

It has been an ongoing debate on these boards for many years and something I always go back and forth on, but I’m not so sure you can use one storm (whether it be severe, winter, tropical) to characterize a season as a whole. Sometimes the higher end events are more of a product of the short-term pattern and how the pieces evolved and interacted versus the overall regime or what regime dominated during that season. when it comes to this tropical season, what was the biggest focal point from many of the tropical forecasts? It was the forecast of a record named number of storms and these forecasts blew any previous forecasts for nunber of storms out of the water. At least up until now, can you really say this has been a wild season, regardless of what what some index says? We’re definitely going to see more storms and there certainly will be potential for major hurricanes and land falling hurricanes, however, it’s been a total dud versus expectations…period.

Upper-level low pressure dives southwards into New England through the day Sunday while briefly closing off at H5 during the day Monday. Associated with the upper-level low will be an impressive cold pool characterized by H5 temps around -13C to -15C with mid-level lapse rates on order of 6.5 C/KM. This combined with surface temperatures ranging between the upper 70's to lower 80's with dewpoints into the lower 60's will contribute to modest CAPE with MLCAPE values on order of 1500 J/KG. Wind shear in the lowest 10,000 feet will be extremely weak, however, the region should be brushed by stronger 700-500mb winds on the southwestern side of the upper-level low. Based on the above, scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms should develop by late morning to early afternoon across northern New England and progress southwards through the remainder of the afternoon. Combination of unseasonably cold mid-level temperatures, modest instability, and roughly 30 knots of bulk shear should be sufficient for storms to become organized. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail (perhaps > 1'' in diameter in the most intense cores) and strong wind gusts. The weak low-level winds will mitigate the damaging wind gust potential, however, inverted V forecast soundings favor potential for localized damaging wind gusts, especially as any of the stronger cores collapse.

Here’s your shorts @CoastalWx

We have our marginal for Monday!!!

it’s hand sanitizer. The dogs recovery is super slow so we still have to help pee him so I wore gloves then put hand sanitizer on after instead of running inside to wash my hands and leave the dog outside because then he tries to jump up on the step towards the house but can’t make it.

Not a bad beer. I bought a 4 pack like a month ago and this is the final one. Don’t really drink much these days but when I do I’ve really grown on the High Noon’s. When the Bruins start up I’ll be switching to high noon for games. Past few years I would have a voodoo ranger for games (either the imperial or juice force) but both those are 9.5%. Can’t really do those high content beers anymore. High Noon is perfect.

I only wear shorts if it’s above 90 and dews are above 70. Unless I am going to be doing activity outside then I’ll wear shorts. But even now with the sun going behind the trees it’s getting a cool feel

Probably back to Canada

It is pretty stellar out

It's like those models don't exist in the summer

pretty soon we'll be getting posts from metfan at 3:48 PM while he's on his break posting a 384 JMA map that shows some blue on the ptype maps and get all aroused thinking there is a chance for snow. Or him coming in at 4:05 to tell us the EPS looks good even though we've been discussing it for 2 hours

I'm not sure Not even sure why I said CMC there since it was the CFS that was posted.

I also want to be clear that wasn't a jab towards the OP, but moreso a jab at the good ole Twitter (or X but I will never call it X). But I always find it funny as we move through the fall and winter all of a sudden everyone is posting all these different models as if they're searching around for whatever model shows a snow threat or cold shot and then doing what they can to hype it up and create potential just because its something a model shows.

why does the cmc only come out when it shows cold or snow?

This is certainly possible.

have to remember to give this a read today

Either the second half of September/October are going to be historic or at least when it comes to the number of named storms, this will be a big dud. But, given what we've seen develop, especially with Beryl, I guess it shows what kind of potential was in place.

Supercells, typically strong/more mature supercells tend to move to the right of the mean wind, however, its highly dependent on the wind profile. If you have good veering of winds with height you're more likely to get right movers. It can be difficult to get classic looking right movers because of the challenges to get that perfect wind profile. I don't believe the wind profile that day probably favored right moving supercells.

ohhhhh yeah

The supercell which spawned that tornado came down from Albany too! About as classic of a right mover as you'll ever see. That's some wild storm motion

Monday could be a fun day actually. Shear is pretty poor and it's not the most impressive of cold pools, however, GFS has ~-14C 500mb temperatures with 6.5-7 C/KM lapse rates atop of dewpoints well into the 60's. That's pretty good moisture for those values. The weak shear will limit organization and prevent good updraft/downdraft separation but could be a few decent hail producers.

IIRC correctly, we saw a similar pattern earlier in the summer and it turned out to be quite above-average for that week. Even if we have a bit of an onshore flow, the flow doesn't seem particularly much to greatly impact temperatures (except for maybe right along the immediate coast). I would just like to look at some of the soundings for fun but I would be willing to bet guidance is cool because they are struggling to mix. But the Sun angle is still plenty strong enough to where we will not need much heating of the sfc or boundary layer to mix sufficiently.