weatherwiz

I think there will be a line of downpours with some lightning which materializes. May fall apart as it trucks east but the lift and dynamics are pretty impressive.

I know...just messin'

Looks like I'll be getting my low topped squall line later hahaha. Going to outside and clean the cutters at some point this afternoon.

When I said that you said yawn

The conference is two weeks away with plenty of spots open! https://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference/

The conference is two weeks away with plenty of spots open! https://www.wcsu.edu/weatherconference/

Got quite warm after a few hours of Sun plus the higher dews. Have to go outside later and move some stones...will be perfect weather.

I'm just sick of these EL Nino and La Nina's. We need a several year quiet period where the ocean is just neutral. For whatever reason, we're in a regime where winter conditions are shorter than they used to be and I'm kind of using the metric of growing season here. When we're dealing with these ENSO events where either the front end or back end is "favored" we're further reducing our chances. There needs to be a substantial global shakeup. -NAO's, blocking are all great but we have had horrific luck getting them to actually coincide with a storm potential or the blocking is overly strong and screws us that way. Who knows...maybe with what is going on with the African/Indian monsoon season and the anomalously north shifted ITCZ will be a driver in the shakeup. But if we get deep into the fall and especially past the solstice and the global regime is crap that will not bode well. I don't care what D10 EPS colors show

people who may forecast for that area but so boring around here nothing else to do lol

what sucks to me is how everything gets adjusted to the current climatological period. At least with the ONI, a new method was created so ONI values from previous decades are compared to the climatological period reflective for that period.

so do the Mets, but doesn't mean they'll deliver

What I've learned through my mass making of composites the past few years is the analog approach just isn't going to work anymore. The more and more I looked into things, the clearer it became there was a tremendous shift in the influences of ENSO on the global regime. So I've decided to start from scratch with composites. It's also become clear the traditional ONI may not be the best method for defining ENSO anymore, the RONI seems to be a better fit, however, I am also closely beginning to look into the SOI and then want to look into the MEI. I had previous constructed composites and breaking down ENSO into strength based on the ENS-ONI and ONI then I had started to incorporate the RONI, however, it started to become clear that oceanic aspect alone may not be enough to define strength (thus the importance of SOI/MEI).

Sun finally breaking through the clouds here

I wonder if there could be a few stray snow showers across the high terrain of upstate New York Sunday or even Green Mtns. That's a pretty hefty shortwave and llvl cold.

This https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/seasonal_system5_standard_z500?area=GLOB&base_time=202405010000&stats=tsum&valid_time=202406010000

Certainly going to have to watch the Gulf this week. If anything were to develop it would probably only have a small window for strengthening but regardless of development there could be some impressive rainfall totals along the Gulf Coast this week.

Can't rule out some showers/storms Monday (probably north though) but yup a big snooze fest

lmao the PV is typically weak this time of year ("weaker" than average doesn't really mean anything).

we all may

Could see a nice forced low-topped line of convection late Saturday afternoon

If the Fall severe weather season is big in the Plains we may have to start naming MCVs to meet the quota.

Looks like our 6 months of Fall will be setting in nicely.

All basically 10-20% chance of development in the next week. Trying so hard to pump up the numbers

PRefer not to think about that

Might be getting close to that if it happened again.