weatherwiz

Clouds cleared quick...blue sky here...temps jumping

Good thing the Red Sox open in Texas. Red Sox will be playing in 85F weather while avoiding wildfire smoke while Fenway is getting buried.

Watch something finally work out in late March or early April

Definitely...but I think that's what makes pizza so great. I at least love both styles though I think I may be in the minority in that. It seems like everyone has their one preference, either New Haven, New York, or Chicago.

New Haven pizza is the best for sure. Just behind it I would have to go with Chicago Deep Dish...but from Chicago. When I went to Chicago like 4 years ago I had some and my uncle could not believe how much I ate. The "Chicago Deep Dish" you can get around here is fake.

That's probably the best digging northern stream we've seen this season Too bad models have been piss poor with it

Like 26 days until the 384th hour of the GFS gets into May!

Did someone say pizza

I can’t wait until the trees start getting leaves

This is a great explanation

Very possible, I probably just broke my own rule and basing off outdated information. Or you know what...maybe I am just wrong...its Summer where the correlation is substantially weaker, and if I recall, even somewhat reversed.

NAO/AO correlation also starts to wane quickly moving through March and especially April. Still important enough to influence backdoor potential and maybe cut-off potential but outside of that its overall influence on the NHEM pattern will wane.

Also looks like we may start drying out aloft pretty quickly

I think we'll see many probably end as some snow but I don't know if anyone will really accumulate. One thing to watch too is for the wave to become a bit less impressive. one of the drivers in a stronger wave was stronger temperature gradient but if the gradient is weakening this could have a negative impact on wave development. There are other factors at play and involved for wave development though

Yes, agreed. This is a better take and analysis

Seems like there has been a trend towards CAA occurring more slowly. Adirondacks still look a tad interesting but the CAA push seems to be slowing, even within the OV

The snow maps look cute and all but when you actually start looking at everything...they're even more of a giant LOLz than they usually are. They are garbage in winter but they are even more garbage this time of year

EF3 for Chicago later?

What a crushing in eastern Nebraska with thundersnow

That is a decent SWFE signal for interior New England Monday. One question is whether Sunday being convectively active in the mid-South ends up robbing alot of moisture but that may not be a concern here.

Have to look more closely but a quick glance...it's probably a cold rain for most. Snow probably above 1,000 feet. Adirondacks get smoked though and probably southern Greens and even maybe the Berks.

No doubt that tunnel can be long. I mean we've certainly had some terrible weather well past Memorial Day. It's a crap shoot around here.

I don't think its anyone rushing to that crap, but I do agree that these great days early in the season can sometimes make us forget how shitty spring can and usually is. but I don't think its anyone rushing to this...its more about knowing there will be these type of days mixed in and trying to take advantage of them. It's also a sign that, yes while we have crap, we are going through the tunnel and be out of the crap soon enough.

Friday could be pretty decent for the Adirondacks. Could get smoked pretty good actually.

Maybe the problem is just where it is being dumped. I know Ray has mentioned this several times, but we haven't really had any patterns favoring dumping the source region cold directly into our region. The dumps have been central Plains, upper-Midwest, and then those airmasses are moderating quickly as the move our way. Also, even this winter was seasonably cold here (I would at least term it that way), it seemed there was just a lack of that bitterly Arctic cold on this side of the hemisphere. There was that one period in mid-February where the central states got it. Ultimately though, from a research perspective, we may have to fine tune expectations or re-define the sensible aspect of weather as a result from the combination of teleconnections. What probably was a strong correlation in the 1970's and 1980's...might not be as strong anymore. And this could be from a variety of different reasons, including just from building the database itself....adding more scenarios to the picture.