weatherwiz

It's really becoming quite intriguing, especially when you take into account the consistency hi-res models have on activity moving into the state...this coincides with combination of best shear/instability (well maybe weakening instability but still sufficient). Yeah good point...these low-level lapse rates are quite steep so won't take much for strong wind gusts. Even some Td's of 71-73 not far SW...that alone will help compensate a bit for crappy mid-level lapse rates.

RAP/HRRR continue to really suggest enlarging hodographs as we move into the evening as stronger winds aloft move in. Also looks like a surge of higher theta-e air moving into western areas with a push of higher low-level moisture. that could help keep instability up there even for a few hours after sunset. Too bad lapse rates are awful but if some cell can get some updraft enhancement it will have lots to work with.

the HRRR, NAM Nest, and RPM all been pretty consistent with a line (perhaps broken) moving through the state. Best chance for any severe is certainly up around NW MA though but I definitely won't make it there. I might not even be able to make it to BDL b/c traffic from HFD to BDL at 6:00 when I get into HFD area will be horrific. Unless I take back roads from WeHa to Bloomfield and catch 91 there

nah I think we'll see a line of thunderstorms move through the state. Just a few embedded strong-to-severe thunderstorms (particularly west and north-central CT). We have stronger flow working in aloft, decent height falls, the instability.

This sucks...my camcorder's dead and i can't find my charger. I won't have time after work either to go buy one and then get to BDL from Branford before the storms come Maybe I'll just go to a golf course in WeHa or something.

That's what i was thinking but the value doesn't seem to change when you adjust the level. Unless for some odd reason it's the same CAPE values at each level lol. I'll try a different model too...was just using the 15z HRRR for BDL

I don't think its the warm front but there looks to be ome sort of boundary that runs from around ALB into MA down into northern CT

Here's a question I've always had but never found an answer. On bufkit in the hodograph section, on the bottom left of the hodograph there is an output for Cape and Helicity...does anyone know what level the Cape is measured in? is it surfaced-based (I'm guessing it is not sfc-based output) mixed-layer, or most-unstable? If i had to guess I would guess mixed-layer. I even tried playing with the llc values on the right to see if that would adjust Cape values but it only does so with helicity

whoops...quoted wrong post but the convective temp is around 90 per forecast soundings

This is certainly intriguing!

Wasn’t completely impressed with the 12z soundings from ALB and OKX but I was shocked to see that the H7-H5 lapse rates were 7...though they are weakening during the day. Shear isn’t terrible and still some directional shear in lowest few km. There will be a few decent storms around the region today.

Some pretty impressive looking hodos tomorrow. Lapse rates and better forcing being a bit late hurt things but from C Ny into western SNE there will be some really good storms

Some decent looking holographs to watch too. If the plume of steeper lapse rates does time better tomorrow could be solid. Real shocked there isn’t a slight or even enhanced risk

You're certainly right with that perspective. I went ahead and looked at H7 temperatures and those would certainly suggest capping. When you have H7 temps approaching +10 around these parts that's pretty strong. What I was thinking was this didn't necessarily have that textbook look of nig heat into our region...we weren't under the dome of the high pressure (almost right on the crest) and the source of the hottest llvl air was just to our SW and it was the flow transporting some of this into our area. But look at H7 ridging and positioning we do get those high H7 temps in. As far as EML goes the pattern actually looks pretty damn good for advection of an EML plume or EML air into our region. There is just one problem...there is no (or little source region lol). What screws things over I think is that initial trough which digs into the western US this weekend and (while flattening) progresses towards the central US and it screws with the EML environment

Yeah I didn't mention Monday but Monday looks real interesting as well. Models do show some s/w energy moving through as the ulvl ridge breaks down. This also allows for some strengthening westerlies to move overhead. As far as the capping is concerned the lid strength index values were right around -5 or so which would indicate that capping wouldn't be a concern...I guess that could make sense with height falls aloft?...usually with capping issues we see heights rising. I wouldn't rule out MCS regeneration across our region either with perhaps some activity developing along the OFB as it propagates into western sections.

Not sure about here but Tuesday could be quite interesting just off to our southwest. Obviously lapse rates are meh but could be some enhanced low-level shear to work with

Actually a shame that 1) We probably have showers moving through during the day and 2) That s/w isn't timed quicker...not a terrible looking environment across western sections. Actually some nice looking hodos on some of the soundings.

Debating on maybe going to NY Wednesday

Starting to wonder if the configuration will ever break down I have not really looked at long-range in quite sometime (as in influences of the global pattern and such) but this seems rather odd to me to see such an extensive feature become established at the high liatitudes this time of year.

I can see that happening. Could even see a bit of an instability spike around 0z across far western areas too with some decent theta-e advection modeled. Looking ahead though what a horrific pattern. Although, I guess there is some hope for maybe some cold pool aloft setups but just yuck.

yeah the timing certainly has not trended in our favor.

Boundary layer and low-level winds could be an issue on Wednesday but Wednesday has been a bit intriguing for a few days now.

yeah that thing looks like it would be a heck of alot stronger than an EF1 or EF2

Absolutely! Quite the show in Newtown overnight

Time to ride the MCS train if the GFS is right?