weatherwiz

that's pretty close to the transition period too, no?

I've actually thought about that. But IDK...by doing various point-and-click soundings across the state during the overnight through morning it seems like dry air really starts to creep in perhaps as early as late evening...becomes quite apparent I think after 9z.

THE GFS is cute...still chucking out precip over CT despite the fact the column is about as dry as Kevin's scalp in February

I wonder if we'll really see the rain pick up this evening. The dynamics are no joke: PWATS over 1''...in December...nice

Much of the region gets into the stronger forcing but it just seems that everything favors eastern areas being able to utilize it. Actually...18z NAM 3K and even the RPM are hinting at an extremely thin band of very heavy snow which may develop and scrape SE CT, RI, and SE MA...it's just very progressive though...if something like that can develop and hang around a bit someone could easily get 3-4'' out that way.

Cod

FWIW there really isn't a whole heck of alot of of precip reports on the back edge of the precip going through TN Valley. Also, PIT did an 18z sounding. This is behind the front. that dry air means business

Looks like there is an unstable layer in there...but also looks like there is sinking motion within it. Here is 850 RH at 9z...all the good lift is just above this...I don't think we'll have issues generating snow but we will have problems getting it to the ground. This is why I think the radar may be a bit deceiving tomorrow...especially the higher up the beam is hitting

Looks like 6-hr precip on the NAM across CT during the time of the changeover is only about 0.1 to 0.25''...which can likely be cut back even more given the dry air...still a major problem on soundings all across CT

It will be about as moist as a Christmas ham

could be some decent icing somewhere

was too lazy to type it all out.

euro quite dry though at 850 with DAA (making it up ahahahaha) quickly arriving at 700

yeah that's a huge issue here too. It does seem though that they sort of become more stacked moving through the morning across RI/SE MA...this is virtually where any hope exists for accumulating snow. Hell at this juncture there's a chance someone in W CT doesn't even see a flake. Precip is going to shit down quickly.

If only

This is some of the strongest fronto I think I've seen on a forecast model: If you analyze further you can easily see as well why the best chance for snow would be on the east side as opposed to the west side.

Thank you. I think using gif option's where available will be the best way to go moving forward to really understand things and learn more. This displays it beautifully. Gotcha...this helps. Great explanation.

See...this is where I am a bit weak in analysis. Well...I get the southeast shift has little to do with the shallow edge of dry air at 850... but what about the differences in the s/w relate to a farther southeast shift in precip. This is what I struggle to deal with visually on models.

At least there is no virga when tracking severe

In a situation like this though, how important is that s/w? Too me, I don't think it is overly important (referring to that OV s/w)...that s/w lags the cold front quite a bit and it's this front (and associated frontal energy) as it pushes through which just yields a different atmospheric state (going from buoyant to subsident). Even if that s/w didn't really get absorbed and maybe the jet feature/speed was more favorable...would it do anything to help? If there was stronger moisture advection which could shoot in with some WAA as we lose the influence of the front...maybe it would be different?

I feel like there are people who just browse social media 24/7 and stalk either local news stations or NWS and troll. My roommate from school works on TV in Bangor, ME and the comments he gets are ridiculous. One viewer was claiming she measured like 26'' of snow in the last storm and was upset b/c when he mentioned a range of totals that fell on air her total wasn't in the range lol

What I've learned from here over the years is that the best method/approach to forecasting is to account for everything...especially flags. When flags start to arise, that's when you need to pump the brakes and start asking yourself questions in your head...questions such as "how does this alter the potential outcome" or "what does this offset". What I then do is try and paint a visualization in my head of how everything will look as the event is unfolding (especially regarding radar). This does burn me often b/c I will be conservative more times than not, however, I have learned that there are some things I may place too much emphasis in or that my understanding of what I was interpreting was just flat out wrong. One example of this is RH in the DGZ. For some reason I was using 90+% as a threshold, however, upon reading up, I was way too high...threshold seems to be more in the 80-85% range...so when I would see less than 90% I would think it was too dry for good snowgrowth and I would underforecast. I also suck at not necessarily analyzing charts like 500 vorticity, but I really suck at understanding how the pieces work together and how subtle changes in placement, structure, track influence everything at the surface. This BURNED me last year...remember the weekend where we had a storm Friday and sunday or Monday...I completely played up the Friday one and and downplayed the second one...we got little Friday and slammed Sunday. That certainly presents a major challenge for you...and everyone else really. It has to be tough when forecasting along the boundaries of CWA's in questionable situations...you think 1-2'' but just across the border they're going like 4-6''...huge difference and that does the public no good. People really thought you were ignoring southern NH...lol

Thanks but it's not over yet haha. If the Pats can come back from down 28-3...anything can happen lol.

I wonder if you can forecast negative snow...since we measure snow that reaches the ground (a positive value) what about snow that evaporates before reaching the ground...or gets caught in the updrafts?..it's not falling to the ground...it's rising farther from the ground.

What's funny is there is a chance perhaps CT coast sees more than inland