weatherwiz

Inflow winds are pretty gusty

Made it to the golf course in WeHa.

yeah that as well is aiding in storms acquiring weak rotation. >50 knots of effective shear with the degree of CAPE is quite impressive.

Kinda shocked the cell that gets the warning has no lightning in it while the one near New Milford with lightning and what looks like a bit stronger winds on velocity doesn't

debating on starting work or seeing if that storm near Woodbury Center will make a run for WeHa and then I can go to the golf course

helicity is a bit higher I think than what is being displayed. Diffuse boundary is enhancing some rotation within the storms (especially west) but there really isn't a whole much to cause any concern. Probably just enhance potential for strong gusts.

Too bad we didn’t have the forcing or lapse rates today

Think we could see a few strong or severe storms today

I was getting nervous driving through Ridgefield...went through an area of narrow Roads with nothing but trees and power lines. Lots of ponding too. I wonder where in Ridgefield

Just got into Reading. Had to pull over...can’t see and there’s ponding. Made it so close to the rotation

Getting a few good CG’s now

On that cell headed to Ridgefield. Looks like the weak rotation may pass just south though

The past few...even several runs of the SPC SREF have continued to highlight western MA and western CT...even bumped up the probs. I still wish I understood what the values actually indicated...is it a percent or like an "on a scale type thing"?

sorry that came out weird and couldn't edit but that's the 11z RAP for Waterbury, CT for 2:00 PM today. Great combination of shear and CAPE

11z RAP for WTBY

Part of the reason is typically later in the summer we have a higher likelihood for stronger llvl moisture which; 1) leads to lower LCL’s 2) enhances llvl instability and 3) combine this with strong shear in the 0-3km layer and you have potential for weak tornadoes. Basically we’re relying more on what’s going on in the llvls than the mid/upper llvls...especially when we aren’t really looking for storm tops exceeding 20,000-25,000’. I also believe with warmer SST’s this reduces the effects of marine air, especially in situations where dews are exceptionally high. Also, steep mid-level lapse rates are typically more important when looking for significant severe widespread severe weather...this includes strong tornado potential.

You’re not kidding...holy crap. Tremendous directional shear in the 0-3km layer with sufficient CAPE. Anything that gets going has plenty to work with

The biggest concern is going to be some weak height rises through much of the day and whether we can get a good forcing mechanism. Looks like the majority of the s/w forcing remains well to our west. We will be uncapped which will certainly help but our only source for buoyancy is just from unstable llvl air but nothing to really give an extra boost of support. EDIT: Nevermind...I was hovering over the wrong period looks like we will have subtle s/w moving through tomorrow but concern of height rises remain

Looks like mlvl lapse rates steepen a bit too which helps keep it quite unstable and even bump CAPE up a bit in the evening and early overnight

If enough 0-1km or 0-3km CAPE can develop tomorrow it does look interesting around 0z. llvl shear is fairly nice looking...not too weak and not too strong and some good directional shear going on as well in the 0-3km layer.

That did eventually make a move up the coast right...but like several days later? It actually ended up making like a decent jog west too at the last second lol. It sort of rode up along the boundary as it stalled off the coast...?

yeah that night have been the one...or was it the one that began with an H? Hermine or something

Totally agree here. If you're able to have an understanding of how this sort of stuff influences tropical (development, intensity, track, etc) you have a very strong likelihood of "beating" forecast models. Do you remember a couple years back there was this tropical system off the coast of FL and even 3 days out most models and the spaghetti plot tracks all showed a hit into New England? I kept telling people at school I didn't think that had any chance of verifying just because the atmospheric pattern did not support a track into New England or up the coast. The system ended up doing a fuwijara (or whatever it's called) off the coast of FL lmao.

EXACTLY!!!!! This needs to be printed on a tee-shirt. The same can be said as well for just about any weather event. There are so many factors to consider when talking about a potential impact from a tropical system around our parts...that's why our average is like every 10 years for a hit or a landfall (believe that's hurricane...not sure if that includes tropical storm). Anyways there is more to it than just ridging or high pressure in the western Atlantic...the atmospheric pattern configuration across the United States is critical as well...especially with the timing and amplitude of any trough which may be pushing into or digging into the east. Then you have to worry about frontal boundaries moving through.

right but with my luck that's what will happen