weatherwiz

Looks like a window from 5-10 AM and then another maybe 4-8 PM. HRRR looks like it's going to be wild with wind

yeah it does appear as if it will stop ingesting dry air shortly...or very little. Where landfall happens will be big too...obviously the longer the eye stays over the water the greater the chance for strengthening but in this situation the longer it stays over water the closer to we towards sunset/evening when convection can start to increase.

starting to see some overshooting tots on satellite

the 18z HRRR has some nasty looking discrete cells moving through early tomorrow AM

If it did get higher than a cat 1 we would be in deep trouble But I doubt so too...I'm thinking maybe 80-85 mph?

crap...you're right. well I'm kinda glad about that

I'm still bit nervous for further strengthening...it's in an area where if it strengthens it could take off. Obviously there is no model support for that but given how it's holding it's own as the shear weakens and it becomes more favorably aligned with the shear...who knows what could happen.

IR doesn't look very good but visible seems to be looking better...hmmm

they're just waiting for the real playoffs to start

Get to watch the Bruins tomorrow and trees flying through the air.

the wind has blown you out of CT

FWIW, the 12z HRRR was just as impressive with winds for tomorrow. I know it's a bit far out of the HRRR range but still noteworthy. 18z HRRR should start rolling within the day

I was actually thinking about that. But, to save people's I elected not to say.

There has been another decent burst of convection flaring up the past few hours. Looks like its trying to wrap around the eye but still no luck. See what happens over the next 6-8 hours.

I'm expecting a slight risk here when the new day 2 comes out!!!

Looks like surface temperatures should push close to...perhaps even a few ticks above 80 with sfc dews climbing into the 70's. Those two alone are going to yield llvl lapse rates a bit steeper than we would usually see in this type of environment and not too beat this dead horse but much of this happening during peak heating hours is pretty huge.

Looks like the RPM (12z run anyways) has coastal CT sustained 40-50+ knots?

It's really all about mixing. That's what is a little bit bizarre IMO about this is how well some of the models are mixing. Here is 12z BAM bufkit for BDL. I'm still pretty impressed at these CAPE values given the shear. Also note that little area of drying aloft..but NAM has been pretty wonky with dry air aloft so not sure if that is accurate. Would have to investigate further

Yeah I think this setup is a bit different from some of our previous setups. Ingredients we lack in those are present this go around

there is definitely some room statewide for 50-60 mph gusts. Not sure that will pan out or if it will but this look is a bit concerning for CT...especially with potential for tornadoes. That''s n awful lot of llvl CAPE being modeled given these shear parameters. But even putting aide tornado potential...those CAPE values alone would be enough to transport down very strong winds...especially if the LLJ does max out over us. One underrated aspect going for us is this all happens during peak heating hours.

IDK..there does seem to be a window where we could get gusts 50-60+ mph across a large part of CT. NAM soundings...well at least 3km NAM actually don't really have much...if any...of an inversion which is actually quite bizarre I would think. But it looks like we maximize the LLJ during peak heating (yes it's clouds but that is important) and there looks to be potential for quite a bit of convection.

I've made several posts on the tornado threat but I don't think I've mentioned about tonight but there is potential overnight as well.

airplanes being tossed into the Atlantic

Getting a little concerned about the tornado potential in CT tomorrow...models are spitting out quite a bit of CAPE...especially within the lowest 3km. NAM bufkit soundings showing >300 J of 3km CAPE and over 1000 J of 6km CAPE...those are quite high given the amount of shear. I'll also add this...we may see llvl lapse rates steep enough to where these winds can certainly overperform...especially with any convective elements.

This situation that we're dealing with is why I am legit scared of a major hurricane impacting us. I mean think about it...our window of knowing like 100% certain that we will get nailed is like what...maybe 8-12 hours? Sure we can have an idea it will happen and make necessary preparations but there is still that uncertainty...by the time we really are certain it's too late to really act. It would be an absolute disaster, especially if you ever had to talk evacuations. How many people are really going to take something seriously when the main wording is "we still don't know"?