weatherwiz

Yeah we can't ignore the rainfall aspect of this. This is a setup in which models (even the more aggressive models) could underplay rainfall totals. As impressive as the Euro is with rainfall totals, it could still be underdone (taking verbatim). That is a continuous fetch of moisture off the Atlantic and the system takes its sweet time occluding. There could be a swath of some substantial rainfall totals.

Agreed with that. But to be clear (though this may not matter) I was referring to H5 in general (across CONUS) - not just the specific feature. But I get what you're saying.

This is where you have to wonder whether the Euro's parameterization scheme just remains far superior to the GFS. I mean compare H5 of the Euro to the GFS from the 0z run at initialization. Now one could argue it's "noise" or subtle differences but IMO those differences for an initialization are rather large. I would also re-suggest the argument of the lack of upper-air observations within the region the s/w is traversing but the counter-argument to that would be - why is that not impacting the Euro...perhaps an answer to that would be...the euro is just more superior with initializing processes haha. Anyways, this post comes across as Euro is right and GFS is wrong - obviously we don't know that but lets say the Euro ends up scoring the scoop on this and blows the GFS away...may as well just put the GFS away.

One thing to keep in mind with this potential system too is it being warm core and how long it maintains its warm core

yeah definitely interested to see what recon finds with this

May be talking about potential for hurricane force gusts along the coasts. But yeah I'm really intrigued to see what hi-res is like with the LLJ and really start digging into mixing potential. Have to watch too for some elevated CAPE grazing the coast

what a beast

Hopefully utility companies getting some help on standby

that is a monster LLJ too on the Euro...and one that encompasses a large geographic area

What's interesting on the EPS is you see the two clustered areas that you mention, however, then there is a convergence of the two camps backing in west.

IDK...Euro has that look of backing in. Maybe it ends up east of previous runs but that H5 look through 120-126 seems to scream getting tugged in

Yup and at this point strength is not necessarily important. In fact, if one is looking for prolonged impacts you'd probably not want this getting as deep as it can get because that would probably result in a quicker occlusion. But because of the potential anomalous track of this system, the angle in which this may bank in is going to be more of a player versus strength.

Polo looks about ripe for IR

GEFS east but still a ton of spread and some interesting members. The GFS does have an east or OTS bias with coastal's though not sure if really only applies with winter and dealing with Arctic airmasses. If 12z euro is similar to at least yesterday's runs this is going to be a hell of a battle between the suites. One of them is going to get totally schooled

Yeah ICON is pretty wild. That's an impressive warm core system and it takes forever to occlude

Probably would be looking at some serious coastal flooding across eastern MA and particularly the Cape and along the north facing shore of Long Island

I'm glad it's not the following weekend. I'll be at an outdoor event in New York (though lodging is indoors) but that would totally suck.

it's certainly going to be blowing

That would be some widespread power outages on the Euro...yikes.

Wind fields are quite impressive and would be with such a storm so definitely need to keep an eye on given the trees are fully leaved still.

Definitely pretty interesting end of the week...can't rule out tropical given warm core but certainly could be looking at a hybrid type

Do you know if there are discussions within the NWS about a potential future of probabilistic warnings? I am currently taking a Weather and Society class (which is extremely interesting) which involves reading alot of research papers. I guess there has been some work and studies done about probabilistic tornado warnings, where you have your deterministic warning polygon but within the polygon is color coded probabilities of being directly impacted by the tornado. I have many mixed emotions about anything probabilistic in terms of public communication, especially with something like warnings but the results of such studies are actually a bit intriguing in that they may help influence (positively) people's decision making and action taken. Would the NWS ever consider such approach?

Yeah, I'm just not sure how much I buy it. We've seen plenty of times, especially early in the season where guidance gets way too coastal happy. I'll say though, I am not looking forward to Fall or Winter weather forecasting. I don't think this has gotten the proper attention this deserves but the reduction in balloon launches I think is going to have severe negative impacts on models and forecasting. In fact, we've even seen it this summer. There have been multiple instances where local NWS offices in the central Plains/Midwest and I think even from SPC where they noted the reduction in launches having a significant impact on even short-term severe forecasting. I know we have better equipment and technology from satellites but balloon launches are still a critical part in the modeling process.

Both Euro and GFS OP want to develop some sort of low along the stalled front later in the week. Ensembles have some signal on this too. Could at least be something beneficial in terms of rain for eastern areas. But its almost not even worth looking at anything 5-7 days out anymore

I'll say...it was very weird last week wearing a Pats jersey on the couch while wearing shorts and not jeans. Will be even more weird on September 29 if I'm wearing a Bruins jersey with shorts. In fact, depending on which jersey I'm wearing I may not even need pants because a few of them are game replicas so on the longer side.