weatherwiz

It's certainly not a horrible look but its pretty far off from getting to the point of being like, "yeah this is a bit concerning" and something which may result in stronger storm impacts (something like increasing concern for power outages and surge/coastal flooding). There are a lot of "if this happens" involved here. Certainly worth watching, but if I had to lean towards a direction of what this becomes, it would be minimal impact...nothing more than what this area sees with daily thunderstorms which produce gusty winds and heavy downpours. maybe a bit more of a FF risk from torrential downpours and maybe some slightly stronger wind gusts.

Certainly can't disagree with that. As we've seen the past decade really is you can't trust a storm in the Gulf, especially with the OHC that builds going into the season.

Good stuff on TUTT's. It was essentially a TUTT that lead to this potential, but TUTTs are interesting in the sense that they can help with the initial phases but also can be very bad for TC genesis/strengthening in general. This system is certainly fighting stronger shear to the north and also ingesting some dry air. Despite the water temperatures, its really difficult seeing this take off or really becoming anything organized. I was pretty shocked to see TS watches fly but I guess I can sort of understand it because that allows certain protocols from local govt's to be activated. But this looks more like just some areas of heavy rain, scattered thunderstorms, and gusty winds...a.ka. a typical summer afternoon along the Gulf Coast. Seems like any greater storm impacts are going to be confined to the open waters.

This Gulf system is absolutely crap

Beautiful day for some baseball, although a tad windy

Yesterday didn’t really bust. The greatest threat for severe weather was off to the West, in which there were a quite a few reports, including at least one tornado. Threat was always lower here and worth watching.

yup multiple warnings.

yes MCD was issued which includes western CT mentioning uncertainty in whether downstream watch will be issued

Expectations should always be low in our setups really. At least for me, part of the fun in all this is the "unknown". 99.999999% of the time (or some number that's essentially 100% without being 100%) severe weather here is not going to be widespread or even concentrated, its just going to be some reports scattered about and localized. But back to the fun...its the tracking and monitoring to see even if one storm produces...and if that one storm does produce, there is someone out there who was directly impacted. These setups are just so intriguing in that regard because the kinematics support the potential and generally instability is usually just enough to warrant some concern, but ultimately low enough to where maybe only a few storms will ever become mature enough to utilize the environment.

Got the MCD for western areas...only an hour after I suspected maybe I meant 5:00 CT

I would wager by 5:00 we probably see an MCD for western areas.

That stuff west of BGM starting to look pretty good with cooling cloud tops. Looks like it just behind the warm front too. Probably up to the CT River probably still in game for svr potential given it looks like the warm front should get there. Want to see dews get to around 72-73...not sure how far northeast those will make it though

Hoping to go after that stuff moving past BGM now. Hopefully it will remain on a trajectory or pass close enough to BDL.

when I was outside with the dog this morning I was a bit shocked how it was outside...smoke was pretty evident. Thought at first it was maybe some fog but the smell of smoke was clear as day.

just edited...meant to say 3km is a bit off with how things are evolving. HRRR pretty good to get everyone with some amount of rain for rd 2. Severe potential remains complex. Might just have to watch where the instability gradient is. But even that will be tough to pinpoint because the warm front is moving.

The HRRR is wayyyyy off with how things are evolving EDIT: meant to say 3km

Hasn't rained here in like 20 minutes, time to raise the drought monitor index

def a good drink here. took a drive to Enfield/back and ran into some heavy downpours on the way there and again on the way back. cloud tops warming quickly though on the back end...lets get some sun. won't take much to get temps to jump

Might actually be encouraging for some breaks in the clouds

Yeah real tough to tell. Looks like there may be some breaks behind this stuff so we’ll see. Probably going to struggle to get enough CAPE though unless we can really pump the dews

Ramping up the elevated instability…not a bad sign. Just have to see if we can muster up enough surface instability. It’s going to be a short window but not impossible. Some of the bigger events happen when you’re rapidly increasing instability just out ahead of the approaching activity

yup...that's the stuff to watch for this evening. As that activity approaches we may see some discrete develop out ahead of it.

I think our window for discrete may be smaller and probably would be timed closer to when the line arrives. Probably looking at 5-7 for discrete with the line rolling through shortly after. I think the overall progression of the warm front has slowed to what it was looking like yesterday. It will be some time before we can get in some sfc instability

Definitely going to be interesting early evening, guidance increases instability just out ahead of the main activity moving in. If we can get upwards of 1500 J of MLCAPE to build in like some guidance shows there will be some wind damage for sure. Of course given the directional shear there would be the risk for a few tornadoes. Won't be getting much sun today but our instability is going to be coming from increasing dewpoints...if we get dews 73-74-75 in...watch out

yeah certainly could see some flash flooding