weatherwiz

Its always cool to compare stats versus memory. But it does feel like we used to do much better with convection in the 90's then we have for quite some time..and by that I mean these elongated squall lines (or usually multiple) that would be draped from like Maine into the mid-Atlantic. I remember many times during the summer watching the weather channel and following the radar on the Local on the 8's and seeing these squall lines moving from NY/PA into SNE...and more times than not they would fizzle before reaching West Hartford But I also remember several times a summer getting really loud overnight thunderstorms and evenings where the sky would just be lit up from distant thunderstorms and it seemed like the lightning would just go on for hours. It seemed like every period of high heat/humidity not only came with thunderstorms but multiple instances and the overnight stuff. 1990's were the king of the squall lines (and into the early 2000's).

Will be interesting. Like you said last night too, dewpoints will spike back up this evening. Something to also watch because that may boost sfc instability a bit more or even maintain, despite losing the sun. May yield some room to keep convection sfc based and maybe a wind threat continuing into the region. I think its encouraging seeing CAMs continuing with activity tonight, though I wouldn't expect them to handle it very well.

The HRRR may be a bit too aggressive with weakening that activity tonight. One big key I think will be how organized the cluster is as it develops across PA/NJ (does it develop a cold pool to sustain on?) and what we are looking at for MUCAPE. Kind of hard to see an organized cluster weaken if MUCAPE is still pushing 2000+ J

Was doing my last final earlier and happened to look out the window and saw this cutie. sitting outside watching distance flashes every now and then from the stuff to the northeast

hey they get plenty of days in the Plains with double the MLCAPE and nada because they capped out the fanny

S NH/MA/N CT

Going to be a loud night tomorrow somewhere in this area

There may be a cluster of elevated storms tomorrow night tracking northeast across the region. Would be quite the light show. Then we'll have to see if we can bust out into sun on Saturday but could see widespread storms and maybe even several pockets of wind damage

I am hoping we can pump 80's and dewpoints into the 70's into November. Can sit outside and watch football and hockey...that would be epic.

This isn't bad for D3. I'm not huge into these products but assessing everything you can see the potential is there and when you supplement with this product its certainly a real signal.

Saturday could be a pretty good widespread day of storms with some strong-to-severe storms

Won't have any time to dig into winter analysis but I really am curious how this winter will go. I do find it extremely hard to believe though this will not be a well above average for much of the U.S. With how expansive the 28-30C waters are (and still growing) expansive ridging is going to be too dominant. Hard to see anything really combating that. Probably be dealing with a raging jet too...but with that, maybe we get something and we benefit in a big way from a powerful jet

Instability pretty large tomorrow. Shear certainly doesn't look great so probably looking at some pulse type. Will probably see a ton of lightning in any storms and a localized FF risk where storms occur.

Monday could be a decent severe setup too. Going to be an active several days in the convective department. Certainly going to start seeing some increased flood concerns too. Time to toss those drought maps

I am surprised we don't have at least a marginal risk for Friday

got a marginal just off to the west with the new D3

#4 seems like it was already perfect as is.

May even have some decent severe potential next week

I'm actually not so sure we really see dews mix down during the day on Thursday. Well...I should say, not mix below 70. Probably would start the day 73-76F but mix down to like 71-72

This month will most likely finish above average, especially if the signals for the second half of the month verify

May have to watch out for a few (rather isolated) strong storms across western MA/CT late Thursday afternoon

I enjoy his posts and discussions. Extremely knowledgeable and doesn't try to hype things up...just tells it exactly the way it is.

Almost looks like a similar transition to the pattern we had a few weeks back. That is some ridge being modeled second half of the month...that is a massive area of 600+ dm heights on the GFS.

Much of next week is going to be quite warm with high dewpoints, at least until the front moves through sometime second half of the week. We definitely encounter a period of around average temperatures with low humidity, should that western ridge become as stout as some guidance suggests and we end up with a NW flow. We'll see how long that holds though...may get one more run at big heat/humidity following that period.

Thought this even looked good last Thursday or maybe it was Friday. Front is actually moving more quickly than I thought but when you're ripping a 40+ knot LLJ ahead of a slow moving front with sfc dews >70 and 850 dews into the 60's, PWATS > 2" and a totally saturated profile...great way to great prolific rain rates and over a large area.