weatherwiz

NAM deepens this so much and so quickly that we probably just end up with bands of heavy rain and gusty winds versus a widespread heavy rain shield. Would greatly reduce flooding risk and even wind risk (especially inland). Core of the LLJ never really gets into the region and its quite inverted. But not totally sold on this being as intense as the NAM has it...but this does illustrate such a scenario should that occur

If there are trees or limbs hanging over an area where kids play, such as a playscape, and there is signs of tree rot or tree damage you could certainly make a case for negligence on the property owner. No different if you say hurt yourself walking through a parking lot of an establishment because of torn up pavement or concrete

Have to wonder if the NAM is going a bit too wonky with the deepening but it keeps this warm core for some time

That would be some good wind on LI and NJ tomorrow afternoon...probably some significant coastal flooding too

Noticed a pretty significant increase in tree color with the tree out front and neighbors yard from a few days ago.

6z Euro definitely an issue with winds, particularly for the coast

The wind aspect inland is still quite challenging. Coast should gust 50-60+ mph but inland its a bit more complicated (as always). Winds not far off the deck are quite strong and even if inverted a bit, it might not take much to bring some stronger gusts down. One potential thing to watch though is when the core of the strongest LLJ arrives...very possible this happen overnight which will make it a bit more difficult to tap into it. But if we can sustained a period of 50-60+ gusts inland there certainly will be some issues

That is a heck of a mlvl warm front that will be draped within the region with PWAT values > 1.50". The rain is going to be nuts. There is bound to be significant flooding somewhere. Some areas could probably get 6-10"+ but really need to wait and narrow down the mesoscale details better

do vertical cross sections not work on TT anymore? EDIT: working, had to refresh the page several times

some days it feels like it

No, it destroys them

Folks complain when there is no weather and complain when there is weather to talk about lol. It's almost as if every single weather phenomenon has to be extreme or bust. Everything is meh, meh, meh unless there are 20 tornadoes, trees get blown down all over, snow accumulations exceed 2 feet, winds gust above 60, or half the region is under water.

Pretty stout LLJ.

I think Oct. 6 unless its been pushed back again.

Looks like Hawaii will get hit AGAIN. Rainfall forecast of 15-30"+ across the Big Island...yikes

The NAM very well may go out on a very sad demise

I noticed that yesterday looking out the window. Had to take a second and more closer look...haven't seen clouds stream in from that direction in a while. They were hauling too

a few models

This could be another great test for AI guidance. However, didn't we have some similar scenarios last winter (maybe not truly anomalous as this setup is given time of year) but where we saw AI guidance holding steady and then collapsed towards traditional guidance inside of like 48-60 hr?

Only a couple of weeks until the NAM is toast (unless that gets pushed again). I don't know why I thought of this but it's kind of funny, just thinking of how many models have been introduced and retired since the Cowboys last won a Super Bowl

Definitely a much less impressive LLJ on the Euro (except towards the Cape). One thing that seems noticeable too is differences with the handling of the high to the north (on all guidance)

That was a sounding from New Haven he posted

40-60 mph gusts is a pretty big deal when you have fully leaves trees, especially when you're talking about a long-duration of those gusts. Summer thunderstorms which gust in that range for like 20 seconds knock down tree limbs and power lines

Oh my lawdy

I think there is also some potential this could become a deeper storm than what is being advertised now, especially given it starts warm core and how it may take its time transitioning to more of a cold core. Another factor in this too is how the upper-level wind field evolves. At least on the Euro, look at how the structure of the ULJ evolves...that is very favorable for enhanced diffluence aloft which would further factor into the strengthening of the storm and wind fields. Lots of interesting processes will be undergoing with this thing. Sexy science at work