weatherwiz

I am not sure how I feel about this conditional intensity addition to the SPC outlooks. I understand the premise behind it but I feel like this is going to introduce a great deal of confusion. I do like the changes though which will make high risks order to become issued although that means we will never see a high risk here again

Was always very nervous about the mid-week period when looking at that configuration across Canada. It's extremely difficult this time of year here to get full blow warm frontal passages through the region. It can be easy to get carried away with seeing pretty oranges with H5 anomalies and 850 temp anomalies but there is alot that can muk up sfc warm frontal passages. This is exactly how NNE (especially elevations) can rack up end of season snowfall totals

HTF did Portland jump from 25 at the 7:00 obs to 40 at the 9:00 obs

We'll be teased with a marginal or slight risk Wednesday poking into Fairfield County

Forecast soundings for BOS are pretty crazy though...about as textbook as isothermal snow bomb you could ask for. The type of stuff where after the event happened people go, "woahhh where did this come from, nothing showed this" and do a little case study and realize...oh crap isothermal profile with strong lift...yup that will do it

I think an inch is doable but we may be just a bit too far south. I don't see tonight really being anything like the other night in terms of sleet/icing across a widespread area...probably more so for the hills.

Going to come down to lift I think. If the lift is there...BOS will be ripping a heavy, wet snow. But I think the trend has been to favor a good 3-4 hour period of heavy snow around Boston with potential for 5-7" of snow

That is getting very close to WSW stuff for BOS should the degree of lift verify. You couldn't paint a thermal profile that is any more on the line than what's being forecast but wow. I guess its great this is happening dead overnight because rates could be 1-2" per hour for a good 3-4 hours.

We have arrived to the time of year where medium range is taken with a grain of salt. Way too much going on and we're throwing into the seasonal transition into the background mix. Certainly some potential for some unseasonable warmth next week when looking aloft but looking at the llvl and sfc configuration...lots of caution flags. This isn't to say we don't sneak in a very mild day or two but I wouldn't hold my breath right now

do Cheeze Its count?

Pretty "loud" outside with the popping noises and melting. Very eerie too with the dense fog. It's like something out of Scooby Doo

60 days to go!!! Down to one final full month to get through

Saw that...interesting

1000%.

yup. It is ridiculous though how the media tries to hype and tie everything into climate change...not every single sensible weather event is product of cc or can even be tied into cc. Anytime there is a flood, drought, tornadoes...the media says "CC is causing it"...that is ridiculous

yup. there is a misconception that climate change means no more snow or no more cold...that is totally untrue.

Yup...looks like we may be getting a little bit of a start on severe weather season. Pretty soon we'll be seeing these classic spring bombs with severe weather ripping through the midwest and blizzards from the central Plains into the upper-Midwest

@dendrite remember the January storm you brought up Earl Baker's isentropic surface analysis page and how it isn't working? This week we happen to be going over isentropic analysis (which is completely blowing my mind away, especially as I'm reading this 80+ page paper from the late 1980's which is pure gold) and I've been trying to find if any places provide forecasts. I came across this https://cumulus.geol.iastate.edu/ (under numerical models, forecast theta sfcs). Only has the NAM but is this similar to what Earl's page plotted? I can't remember what the plots had looked like:

good thought too

I want to say that was around the time the city started to experience it's development boom (well before the 70's) but would be a reasoning to explain the rapid increase in overnight mins (urban heating)...very similar to that of Las Vegas

gotta pin the May 1st thread, getting awfully hard to find it every morning to update the countdown

I believe there was a special weather statement

33

can't blame him

I got just over 1.5"