weatherwiz

Friday may even deserve its own thread. May fire one up a little later.

Weak llvl flow but Friday has my attention on the NAM...

I am really curious to see how it unfolds. I totally agree the rising heights are a big negative in this, on the other hand, if we are pushing MLCAPE values >2500-3000 J and get any sort of subtle energy rotating through aloft, is even subtle energy enough to set things off? I think that's why I'm intrigued in this. If we were dealing with MLCAPE that was only like 1500 I probably wouldn't be as intrigued.

It's going to be an interesting afternoon I think in terms of convective development. Have to watch this area here. Not a ton going on right now but the NAM seems to blossom from this.

MOS/NBM are 76/77. But I'll say they get to 78

BDL will probably get down to 77-78

NBM has EWR got to 84 tomorrow night BOS may get get below 80 either

Just had thunder now

Probably gusts 30-35. No thunder or lightning

Really shocked the warnings got extended

There goes the curl booo

There's the warning

Nice core on that Belchertown cell. 60dbz to 20K on BOX

ahhhh...I was just thinking about this earlier and if it was MLCAPE or MUCAPE to follow...couldn't remember

Will be interesting to see how this progresses because the stronger instability will continue building east towards the CT River along with the ridge building too

gotta say...its a bit more unstable than models were forecasting in our region today

yeah that complex is going to ride the instability gradient. outflow def could fire stuff up farther east

How dare it get to 100F in summer

I find it to be alright...I don't think its anything truly groundbreaking over traditional MOS. What can be very valuable about it is how it provides temperatures based on percentile which can be a huge asset in highly anomalous patterns. For example, I think it was a couple years ago when they were getting very big heat in the West I remember some places where the 90th percentile which was verifying over the typical median which is spit out. I think it absolutely sucks though along boundaries, which I mean can be expected to a degree, but it almost always, always to favor towards the warmer side of the boundary. I've seen NBM bust by like 15F because it had the warm front blowing through and that never happened. I also like how it does not have the limit of reporting cloud cover...so it will pick up on the high clouds while traditional MOS will spit out CLR

Going to end up with convective cloud debris today too and may even see convection begin to pop early afternoon...or maybe closer to mid-afternoon. Pretty healthy looking convective complex (at least from satellite presentation) in Quebec racing southeast

Even the GFS has a quite a bit of elevated CAPE with at least western sections on the instability gradient. It will be an interesting evening/overnight, especially if the NAM sort of verifies with the advection of rather impressive MUCAPE. The HRRR I think has been solid with the idea of convection moving into the region this evening but I think this may end up being a bit more impressive than modeled. These are tough environments, even more mesos to handle

Bring it baby

Just an insane presentation still. Even looks like there may be a rain wrapped tornado

I don't know if I would necessarily bet against it, however, I would put forth some caution into the extent of what some of the forecasts are in terms of its strength. I think its just way too premature to start tooting around x,y,z are happening because we have a super-strong that is developing. I still don't necessarily see how a lot of comparisons can be drawn to how the atmosphere is responding to something developing, particularly when it comes to the ocean. There is quite a time lag between ocean-atmosphere response. It's not like the atmosphere is going full EL Nino mode because the ocean is warming...there will be some time before that warming in the Pacific has a full-fledged impact on the atmosphere. For example, most EL Nino's, particularly stronger ones will tend to peak during the Fall at some point and begin to weaken moving through winter, but its not until the winter months in which you see a much stronger correlation to the impacts of EL Nino.

It's more of the fact that everything is being blamed on something which has not yet become established and its not like these episodes of heat and large ridges are solely a response to EL Nino.