weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Satellite is encouraging.v Just made it to the Bennington welcome center
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I'll take the 3km please
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Gotta say...the RRFS has been quite consistent in its evolution. It's really liked up around the Albany area
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A bit of a change in plans. Going to go to Bennington, VT and start from there. There are some decent viewing spots. Secondary area (which would be only 30 minutes away) is Wigwam Western Summit in North Adams which looks like it has a tremendous view to the west. Really tough part about today is the mesoscale aspect of how this unfolds. The greatest potential seems to be well down into PA but given its a very late PM threat its probably not worth the 4+ hour drive.
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Spoke too soon
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Not bad out! No mosquitos either…so far. Usually get destroyed with them here
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Oneonta is our target area for tomorrow!
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Bring on the 75F dews
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the post about the accounts of sun breaking out was about the 10/3/79 event...don't want to get that confused with the 7/10/89. But its not uncommon for our EML days to begin with clouds and showers/thunderstorms moving through followed by quick clearing (hell, probably the case too in the midwest). I remember 5/31/98 was like this. Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms until like 9 or 10 AM (maybe a bit earlier) then off to the races with full sun
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I remember reading some accounts that the sun broke out maybe an hour or two prior to the cell moving north through the valley from Long Island and that may have been enough to rapidly destabilize things. There definitely had to be some localized horizontal vorticity in which the rapid destabilization was enough to tilt this more vertically and become ingested into the updraft.
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ahhh right...the Oct 79 was left moving
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That supercell from Albany to New Haven still has to be one of the most classic left moving supercells on record
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Agree with this 100%. When I did my presentation at the TriState Weather Conference back in 2022 I think it was on the November 13, 2021 tornadoes I mentioned having the higher dews advecting in ahead of the storms likely played a factor in not only destabilizing but because of the advection, the destabilizing was occurring more rapidly which can enhance updraft strength. One thing I'm also noticing too about tomorrow is a trend towards steeper mid-level lapse rates.
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I wonder if we'll see a 30% wind area added in E NY into NW MA/SW VT. 12z bufkit soundings within this corridor look solid for wind potential with inverted V profiles and steep llvl lapse rates. One concern I have is potential for too much dry air in the mid-levels which may be a reason why CAMs aren't widespread with activity.
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Yup a little worried about that. But targeting probably E NY/NW MA/S VT area tomorrow.
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AWT
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Lets get some sort of show tonight
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Hopefully some day we'll get something like that again.
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Thunderstorm triggering - and also keeping in mind we'd more than likely be looking at a pre-frontal trough triggering convection. Sunday we more than likely would see the actual cold front as the trigger which goes into Scott's point about Sunday's potential and towards the coast
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Give me 25-30 higher
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I am buying the NAM timing...the NAM is usually the model which is a bit too slow. Heights really fall too mid-to-late afternoon, even on the GFS. That too me signals leaning faster with timing (well one reason)
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Timing is speeding up even more. May end up being a south and east of HFD day
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AIT
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it might be but this isn't
