weatherwiz

yup...that is going to be a big key I think

This is so tough...not sure exactly how much I'm sold on that much QPF extended back west.

Please let these trends continue 12z today.

1.3” nice!

Looks like recon is out...not sure if related to the storm but seems to be sampling along and within the Gulf

If we can get that vort better this would take off...and hell maybe the AIs are really out that prospect. But even looking at the GFS and how the we get a developing jet stream lifting poleward...you get quicker pressure falls at the sfc and the low to pop right along or near the Carolina coast, this thing probably tracks close to the benchmark. It might be a big ask but it really isn't far off from being a reality.

No they really aren't. I mean when dealing with phasing and relying solely on phasing, minuscule changes with how the energies evolve and interact can have significant differences on surface evolution. Traditional guidance is still struggling to get a good handle on the northern energy and even with how the southern energy evolves. It wouldn't take much but I presume we really need to start seeing a consensus towards positive ASAP

The NAM is pretty garbage but again not really a model to use for when dealing with phasing so all we can hope for is the GFS how some improvements

Looks like its still chasing convection

Quite the difference in that nrn stream on the 18z nam at 51hr compared to the 12z run lol

Ahh yes...thought it was later in the season. That was a brutal, brutal bust.

The biggest bust I can think of (in the opposite direction) was February 2018? (don't remember the date). It looked like a good chunk of SNE was inline for like 12-18" but the confluence to the north screwed us and Long Island got smoked. Southern CT barely ended up with more than a few inches.

I just find it really difficult to believe the traditional guidance would totally miss this...I mean this would be up there with one of the biggest busts in quite some time. If any of the big dawgs were showing a big hit I would perhaps feel a bit differently but what's really the likelihood of guidance being this wrong? Like lets say we didn't have AI guidance yet...how many of us would actually think there is a legit shot? I suppose though its still just far enough away to we could see big movements but we would have to see that tonight.

Just busting. I'm with you, it is very fascinating to see why the two camps are drastically different. My opinion on AI model aside (since ultimately my opinion means nothing), this is a tremendous opportunity within the field of forecast modeling and obviously the only way to ever see the true value in AI and how helpful will be is by putting it to the test. If the AI score a coop here that would not only be a tremendous win in the AI department but it probably also further exposes significant weaknesses in the traditional modelling. On the other hand, if the AIs fail here, then at least to me, signifies the importance of physics and complex equations and that there is much more to the evolution of weather than just on how a 'similar match' evolved historically.

Another theory is always trying to find a way to justify why the snowiest models are correct

Probably more like congrats Jacksonville and Orlando

Its amazing how quickly it just slings up the coast. Basically goes from LA to the northern mid-Atlantic within 12 hours lol

Yup...Euro is basically saying it's time to essentially pull the plug with the hopes for anything big and perhaps even anything at all say the Cape

If non AI models were a big hit and AI models were a non hit, would the mindset be the same?

It's also probably start time to prepare for May 1st. You all may laugh but there is alot of mental and physical preparation that goes into getting ready for May 1st. Preparing the mind and then getting in touch with the inner soul.

blah not was I was hoping for. Well I guess this system has about as much shot as any team not named the Dodgers of winning the World Series for the next 5 years

Agreed, a shift to that extent is going to be a very difficult task if we don't see some significant improvements by 0z tonight. If I were in eastern areas though I think I might feel a bit better about this because the shifts needed will be much less. It's really hard to go one way or another with this because we have seen some pretty drastic shifts with the handling of that northern stream energy and how it interacts with the southern stream

I actually wonder if we may see a few decent hits on the GEFS...I think if we can at least see some decent hits that should be enough to keep the idea alive that we could see some favorable trends in the next day. If the GEFS is pretty meh though...that combined with a subpar Euro might be enough to make for a nearly flat heartbeat on this

Yeah this isn't going to do it, however, should get at least light snows across a chunk of the region. Would have preferred to see a much better look here but I don't think it's a bad enough look to lean in the direction of not happening.

Just looked at 0z/6z models for second half of the week and holy hell what a disparity. I will say though and I think I mentioned this the other night...that is one powerful Arctic front slated to drop South and I would find it hard pressed not to see at least one major winter weather event impact a large geographical area. I think the biggest question is going to be the timing...does this happen during the second half of the week (similar to the 6z GFS) or does this get pushed back say 2-3-4 days? I would definitely watch anywhere from the mid-South into the Northeast.