weatherwiz

I don’t know. Not feeling too confident about it. Was really hopeful earlier but nothing really indicating. I do think we will at least see some isolated activity during the night.

The NAM has been kicking ass this week with convection (not just these parts). NAM doing what it was designed to do! Going to be a big loss when it’s gone when it comes to convective forecasting (and CAD)

meh that's a lot of money to look at clouds and put things out on auto

tsk tsk, sight should have been larger to include SNE

May be seeing lots of solar panels becoming airborne on Friday.

Friday may even deserve its own thread. May fire one up a little later.

Weak llvl flow but Friday has my attention on the NAM...

I am really curious to see how it unfolds. I totally agree the rising heights are a big negative in this, on the other hand, if we are pushing MLCAPE values >2500-3000 J and get any sort of subtle energy rotating through aloft, is even subtle energy enough to set things off? I think that's why I'm intrigued in this. If we were dealing with MLCAPE that was only like 1500 I probably wouldn't be as intrigued.

It's going to be an interesting afternoon I think in terms of convective development. Have to watch this area here. Not a ton going on right now but the NAM seems to blossom from this.

MOS/NBM are 76/77. But I'll say they get to 78

BDL will probably get down to 77-78

NBM has EWR got to 84 tomorrow night BOS may get get below 80 either

Just had thunder now

Probably gusts 30-35. No thunder or lightning

Really shocked the warnings got extended

There goes the curl booo

There's the warning

Nice core on that Belchertown cell. 60dbz to 20K on BOX

ahhhh...I was just thinking about this earlier and if it was MLCAPE or MUCAPE to follow...couldn't remember

Will be interesting to see how this progresses because the stronger instability will continue building east towards the CT River along with the ridge building too

gotta say...its a bit more unstable than models were forecasting in our region today

yeah that complex is going to ride the instability gradient. outflow def could fire stuff up farther east

How dare it get to 100F in summer

I find it to be alright...I don't think its anything truly groundbreaking over traditional MOS. What can be very valuable about it is how it provides temperatures based on percentile which can be a huge asset in highly anomalous patterns. For example, I think it was a couple years ago when they were getting very big heat in the West I remember some places where the 90th percentile which was verifying over the typical median which is spit out. I think it absolutely sucks though along boundaries, which I mean can be expected to a degree, but it almost always, always to favor towards the warmer side of the boundary. I've seen NBM bust by like 15F because it had the warm front blowing through and that never happened. I also like how it does not have the limit of reporting cloud cover...so it will pick up on the high clouds while traditional MOS will spit out CLR

Going to end up with convective cloud debris today too and may even see convection begin to pop early afternoon...or maybe closer to mid-afternoon. Pretty healthy looking convective complex (at least from satellite presentation) in Quebec racing southeast