weatherwiz

mid-month? That's like 5 days away

I like em stacked

Or H7 tracking over Albany

Well...James sequel could be based on a real life event

wtf is going on in here

The potential is certainly there. Like you said, it doesn't have to be a HECS or some major storm...but there should be some window for some type of event. I'm wondering if we see some sort of SWFE type event...or an inland runner and we get help from blocking or a high to the north. This might stand a better chance than hoping for a coastal

maybe the LES machine can crank for a few days behind it lol

The pattern looks to continue to favor the southern Plains and parts of the Southeast for now...if the degree of colder air in place was much more they would probably see a near historic stretch.

Maybe we can muster up some snow squalls Friday and some scattered snow showers Saturday

we got the May 1 thread © cranking

My interpretation could be totally wrong but I thought the tones were similar, just worded differently.

I didn't take them as opposite statements. Kevin said you can't use them to make or base forecasts...I'm assuming what he meant was you just can't look at an one aspect of the EPS (say 500 pattern) and just make a forecast. Ray added on more to the statement indicating they should be used as tools which kinda goes into what Kevin was getting at (at least I thought so).

He doesn't have hair so he wouldn't know

Precisely. The social media weenies take those things as gospel and assume whatever they're throwing out in the 7-10+ day timeframe is precisely going to happen. Anyways, it will be fun watching the Pacific the next several days because if we can extend ridging into the Gulf of Alaska and sort of cement that there for a bit...the tune of winter could change (even if briefly).

I strongly agree with this.

There could be thundersnow in TX tomorrow

It wasn't that storm??? Holy crap...then I wonder what storm it was. OMG...I've gone all these years thinking it was from that storm. Crap now I'll probably never know

I remember getting thundersnow during that. Was playing outside in the snow with lightning. I think I was outside for like 3-4 hours. I made the mistake of taking a hot bath right when going inside. Ouch

I need to buy that book and the KU books...I'm actually going to do that tonight...at least the KU books. The significant Tornadoes book I think is hard to find and quite expensive...at least when I checked several years ago. Thanks!

I found this book at Walgreens on New Year's Eve about Connecticut Tornadoes. I haven't had the chance to read it yet, but I did read the first 5 pages and it was talking about a major tornado that went through Wethersfield or New Britain I think in the late 1700's.

the weather has just become boring. We can't buy snow events, the Great Plains can't buy severe wx (KS only had 17 tornadoes in 2020...17). I mean I guess when we do get interesting weather we sure get slammed. This just brings a great debate...is it better to get a dozen small events or 1 or 2 big events? (like a winter where you get 1 20'+ event or 13 3-6'' events or a summer with one massive severe weather outbreak or a dozen events with just typical 50-60 mph winds and pea hail). ahhhhhh...this question causes me to lose sleep sometimes

I concur. This actually wants me to really start studying more that whole region of the globe...how evolutions of patterns over the Asia/Russia through the fall correlate to the GOA region moving into winter. There are some teleconnection patterns...I think the PT, WPO, and there is one more which I remember having read have a strong correlation to the pattern evolution within this region but you actually don't see those mentioned very often. Yeah they'll continue getting smoked. From wildfires this summer/fall to avalanches and mudslides now. Fun place

Agreed...I thought so too we might get better help from the EPO but that has really killed us. If the EPO was even slightly more favorable...I think we would be signing a different tune right now. Moving forward the ULJ looks to remain a bit stronger than average and I'm afraid we will get stuck in a progressive type pattern through the next month with very brief deviations...maybe we can sneak something in during these windows but I hate relying on that.

We are also a month or so away from what has started to become an annual February severe wx event

I just hope things sort of change and there is better storm potential. Just looking at the country over the next few weeks...for what's going into the "heart" of winter it's pretty meh.