weatherwiz
-
Posts
75,859 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by weatherwiz
-
Leaving Branford and going to meet my friend in Enfield
-
The difference between the GFS/NAM tomorrow in some of these Northeast locations is insane...typically the NAM tends to overdo the clouds but the NAM is HOT in the warm sector...also noting it does have NBM support. Anyways...if the NAM is correct tomorrow with alot of its output there is going to be a quite a bit of severe weather with at least a few tornadoes tomorrow. Does this extend much into SNE...I'm not sure but I definitely would watch into SW CT.
-
Remains fairly unstable aloft through the night so I would anticipate we see showers and thunderstorms (elevated) through the overnight.
-
We've also mixed out dews some which is hurting the building of MLCAPE. Actually looks like there is a pocket of some lower dewpoint air in the llvls but looks like we do increase slightly later this afternoon. Also appears that there is a very diffuse boundary very near the CT/MA border. Maybe we do see two rounds of action today...one in a very small corridor from MA Pike to CT/MA border and then a second round later moving SW to NE across CT.
-
mid-level lapse rates are a little poopy right now but should steepen somewhat over the next several hours and MLCAPE should jump
-
Have to assess that radar further but it's possible that could have been a gustnado
-
I'm wagering between 6-8 and then need to watch again later on for another round
-
I am starting to lean in the direction of tossing the HRRR although not completely...yet. The "not completely yet" is due to the fact that it's been rather consistent in the 6/7-11 PM timeframe with rapid development across SW CT and moving NE. It has been very inconsistent though what happens late afternoon. Big differences too between 3km NAM/HRRR. I'm not a huge 3km NAM fan but I am inclined to believe it may have the best handle on how later today evolves.
-
I think this is a bit different though. I don't think this is a scenario of a cold front passing through and then stalling trying to retreat back north as a warm front. It basically just looks like the cold front stalls (and becomes a stationary front). It's actually a pretty diffuse boundary too so there is a possibility surface heating could contribute to some adjustments of the boundary...similar to what we saw last August.
-
That is some pretty crazy 0-1km shear tomorrow. It really won't take much CAPE in the lowest 2km for something to spin up.
-
NAM has a legit tornado threat into SW CT later tomorrow afternoon.
-
There are some hints on that on some of the models.
-
along/just southwest of the warm front tomorrow could be quite active. The 6z NAM Bufkit for EWR is actually quite eye opening. the 12z NAM coming out now but this is a massive challenge determining where the boundary stalls
-
Hudson Valley special?
-
yeah there looks to be a very narrow area of wind enhancement...perhaps aided by outflow boundaries from yesterday. I think if we can match yesterday's instability output (which seems plausible) we're going to see some nasty storms.
-
I think it's going to be a pretty interesting period between 6-11 tonight. I am not very confident in how widespread convection will be but I think we'll see some marginal supercell structures. Would like to see a bit more shear but I think there is room for a brief tornado this evening across northern CT
-
Yeah looks like we could see more Thursday. Going to be another impressive week of rainfall totals for many
-
not sure. I would wager though they upgrade at least part of the risk area to a Slight. The strongest winds at 500 are north of the front but the southern edge of 35-40 knots may straddle the CT/MA border. How much destabilization tomorrow will be huge so we'll see how that looks in the AM.
-
That is it!!
-
we're going to meh our way to big stuff!
-
Pretty nice directional wind shear tomorrow...to bad llvl shear is a little meh. WHY CAN'T WE KEEP THIS STRONGER LLVL SHEAR TOMORROW WHEN WE HAVE A BIT BETTER MLVL SHEAR?????? Window looks to be like 5-10 PM...could even see some stuff persist later. Biggest key will be how much instability we prime. If similar to today...we may sneak a TOR in. I'll be dreaming of rotating wall clouds
-
I am not able to. I am not friends with the person so it won't let me. My friend found it on an Enfield, CT form
-
Came across a video on Facebook taken in Broadbrook. Looks like a definite wall cloud. Can’t comment or share post though since I’m not a friend damn
-
Couldn’t get to my parking spot. Had to cut across lawn
-
Incredibly fun drive up 91!!! Starting recording video near Hartford and saw a sick gust front! Got a screen grab from the video. The lightning was wild
