weatherwiz

I'm a bit shocked really. They seem pretty gung-ho on convective coverage today. Maybe their all in on the HREF. But we've had far better setups (in terms of coverage) with no watch lol

MCD Watch Likely Mesoscale Discussion 1323 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0932 AM CDT Wed Jul 21 2021 Areas affected...Parts of northern Virginia...the District of Columbia...central/eastern Maryland...Delaware...southeastern Pennsylvania...New Jersey...southeastern New York including Long Island...Connecticut...Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 211432Z - 211530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying thunderstorm development is possible through Noon-2 PM EDT, posing a risk for at least marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. With storms likely to become more widespread thereafter, a severe weather watch probably will be issued. DISCUSSION...A slowly southward advancing surface cold front has reached southeastern New England and the northern Mid Atlantic coast, with large-scale ascent likely to increase in a corridor along and ahead of it through early afternoon. This appears likely to be aided by forcing ahead of substantive mid-level short wave trough gradually turning east of the lower Great Lakes region. The strengthening lift will coincide with a narrow pre-frontal corridor of rapidly steepening near-surface lapse rates aided by daytime heating. Lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates are also relatively steep and, despite seasonably modest low-level moisture, it appears that this will contribute to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg (up to around 2000 J/kg). Although low-level wind fields are generally weak, 30-50+ kt cyclonic flow in the 500-300 mb layer is contributing to sufficient shear to support organizing clusters of storms. Isolated supercells are possible initially, and these storms may pose a risk for (mostly) marginally severe hail, before the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts become more prominent later this afternoon. Areas of deepening convective development are already evident along this corridor, and a severe weather watch will probably be issued within the next hour or two.

I wish (or wonder) if something like smoke potential will be something that can be added into bufkit.

and screwed our severe wx today

Pretty good way to sum it up and agreed

There is a pocket of some dry air aloft too...850 dews between like 6-8C. With a westerly flow and strong mixing we may mix dews out too. Some warm layers too on soundings and with this haze/smoke we probably don't erode CIN. oh well...next

pre-frontal is already pretty much past us lol

Good catch I don't know if it's me or my keyboard but I've been constantly missing keys...I think it's a product of me using two fingers to type

So many flags today I feel like the flag waver at a NASCAR race

Looking at mesoanalysis this morning this has really turned to crap.

wagons southeast

It also looks like timing has slowed by a couple hours which coins be a good sign

Pretty much HRRR vs. other CAMs at this point

50 shades of Haze

I think the 3km NAM is trash anyways.

WOAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH 18z HRRR with an explosion of convection tomorrow!!!! embedded supercells for all.

Jeezus...what's with this flooding everywhere

Soundings have sfc winds at BDL already NW by the morning with a NW flow through 5k...actually you can see small capping layers too. God damn it...this is BS. Of course this crap would happen. We actually get decent lapse rates and everything else goes to shit. I also don't like how the pre-frontal is oriented. What a waste. We better get an EML coming up with that look.

I did see the Slight risk. The position of the pre-frontal trough is going to be pretty huge I'm guessing. But this could really be good for RI/SE MA looking closer.

I am a little unsure actually of what to expect. Looks like we'll have a pre-frontal trough on our doorstep to start the day and sfc winds begin to become W to even more WNW. Thankfully it is rather moist aloft so we don't have to worry about mixing dews but that could heavily limit convergence. If sfc winds can be more SW that would be beneficial...could also increase tornado potential but LCL's and llvl shear are kinda high/weak.

We have to get an EML from this

I had a dream that there was cloud seeding going on and that's why we've become a tropical monsoon

I love the FU's!!!!

That's good! Sometimes I am actually quite amazed at temperature responses even when you have an abundance of sky cover. I notice this quite a bit across the mid-west. You'll have some cities that are virtually cloudy all day and still somehow manage to get 3-4F above MOS/NBM. But then again...when you have the right airmass in place and sufficient mixing...it doesn't take much to ramp up the temps.

Woah...that is super interesting. I'll have to read more on that. I can definitely see how it is complicated...if you're relying heavily on CAPE for convection well not good...but if CAPE isn't necessarily important you can probably get away with it. I remember back (I think) early 2000's we had some bigger convective potential events get squashed from smoke...I remember having forecast highs in the 90's and we barely got out of the lower 80's. But...I think too the smoke was literally even down to the sfc (it was from the wildfires in SE Canada).