weatherwiz

I'm not so sure though it's a product of it being more west...I think it's more of how it evolves the low pressure. The 12z run has a much more mature surface low and is pretty much nearly perfect cyclogenesis. So I think the talk of models being "west vs east' is not necessarily correct...it's a matter of how the area of low pressure evolves. I am kinda torn on this. Looking at the ulvls the dynamics are quite impressive and support a great deal of ulvl divergence. However, given the stationary front it's more likely you'll see multiple areas of low pressure develop along it. Is it possible the NAM is going crazy with one specific shortwave or low? Very possible. Could it also be heavily influenced by convection? Possible. At this juncture I think I'd be less inclined to side with the NAM right now until there is additional (stronger) support. I would think one axis of very heavy rain tied right along where the best dynamics/forcing are...which is east of us. However, that ulvl jet structure is eye opening.

Should add even the GFS has it to some degree. both NAM/GFS bufkit for EWR Thursday night increase winds out of the NNE 10-15 mph with gusts to 20

NAM has an all out coastal storm rapidly materialize...some pretty impressive cyclogenesis. I mean I guess there is ulvl support for such a scenario to occur but it also looks like it is phasing energy with the ulvl to our west and s/w energy off the coast (associated with convection) and well maybe the NAM is a bit too overzealous in this instance. However, should a scenario like this evolve we could see two QPF maxes...one just NW of the low and the other tied into where the best dynamics/forcing occurs. 6z euro did seem to give the NAM some backing though...

Nasty squall line on 3km NAM. No trees left standing?

shift all that east by a good 30-40 miles

It is not Perhaps maybe through AWIPS though?

Oh...oh...OHHHHHHH

For Thurs - Sun period? I certainly agree with convective threats during that period and perhaps alot of the rain that occurs during this period if more convectively driven than synoptically...though they key word here being more...as there will be synoptic aid but I don't see it being enough to support heavy rains over a widespread area. The pattern moving into next week could certainly favor some MCS potential, especially northern New England.

I'm leaning more towards a few narrow areas of heavy rainfall but not a region-wide event. May see one or two axis of heavy rain. I guess the euro does support chance for strong storms Friday but pretty big differences between euro/gfs right now on how everything evolves.

The euro isn't as far west as it had been with the boundary either. Huge differences too with ulvl low to our West.

meh end of week not really turning into much. Boundary looks to stay pretty far off-shore and even weaken quite a bit. Dynamics are pretty meh. Don't see dews very high either...maybe mid-60's (especially closer to coast).

any EML's coming?

How’s the EML watch going?

Wish it was like 13F warmer out. Had to bring out the P coat

EF3 winds 140 mph in the Bensaem/Trevose area. Was most intense over the car dealership

Only 384-hours away!

Was it 2011 or 2012 when we had the vicious Arctic cold front move through around New Years Day? It was the year when the (then) Connecticut Whale did an outdoor hockey game in East Hartford which was a disaster. I think we actually got several inches of snow as well...don't remember when but I remember it cost them a fortune to remove the snow from the stadium. But I remember the front moving through the day before the game and the day of the game was BRUTAL. High's only in the teens and winds were gusting 30-40+ mph. The period leading up to that high's were 40's and 50's and I think a few days later we were back into that lol.

I hope winter is warm and dry...actually make that hot and dry...very, very, very dry. Dry enough so that there is no need for anyone anywhere on any social media platform to ever have to post a model snowfall map. hot enough and dry enough that images will have to be temperature departure and precipitation departure maps instead.

Heavy rain/flooding potential is absolutely on the table. Getting dews 65-70+ is going to be a bit difficult as modeled, especially since the models keep the highest theta-e offshore. I would also really like to see a more widespread area of 850 dews ~14C for dews to be that high as that would indicate sufficient low-level moisture. I can see dews getting into the 60's and mid-60's along the coast (maybe upper 60's along the immediate coast). Maybe Saturday could crank up the humidity

EML please....PLEASE....PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

the boundary (as modeled now) is off to our east. And if you get any low pressure development along it (which is very likely) and that boundary is east...we could get a crap day of northeasterly flow. maybe coast gets 65+ dews.

Certainly nothing impressive with dews coming this week...probably get back into the 60's mid-to-late week but even then maybe only lower 60's. Not much in the way of heat either...we probably just get back to seasonal levels but not much more than that. Huge questions of how far west that stalled boundary pushes so we're probably looking at the difference between ~80 with dews in the upper 50's and lower 80's and dews in the lower 60's with chances for showers/thunder. I suppose though the risk for some heavy rain can't be ruled out...maybe not widespread.

Insane

NJ again holy shit