weatherwiz

This is impeccable work, Ray! As I've said to you before, your ability to not only present your thoughts, but do so in a way that the reader can become educated is a true talent. I've always had a tremendous interest in long-range forecasting but over the past several-plus years I just haven't had time (or energy) to do much with it. I've read through the EP La Nina's portion of your outlook (so I have much more to go) and wanted to share some thoughts. I share the same view OHweather pointed out in which you took a closer look at why some Nina's were colder and why some were warmer. This is extremely critical (IMO) to the understanding of ENSO events and to the understanding of what may be in the driver seat each event. While a composite of all years will provide you insight of what may be "typical" or the "averaged outcome" each event has its own flavor and it's important to understand that. You explored this, analyzed this, and portrayed this beautifully. I also absolutely loved how you used the lines on the STA maps to illustrate where the core of the anomalies were located in relation to the ENSO regions to indicate where in the region the event was based...this is brilliant lol. I've been trying to find ways to illustrate this better for my own studies and never thought of this (I may have to steal that idea ). There is certainly lots to digest here...tons to digest which is a beautiful thing because if there is anyone interested in not only long-range forecasting but understanding so many of the global drivers and teleconnections the best place to go if your outlook because you're going to learn tons...I just learned a tremendous amount myself. As always, great work!

Found it...was on the main side

Did you post your winter outlook yet?

That's super amazing work. Understanding the frequencies and occurrence of events each season is huge IMO. I think we get way too fixated on "the pattern looks great" and set expectations way too high. Sure there is a reason why we have those thoughts...because such patterns have produced before but at the end of the day it's a massive bias because we remember the times the patterns produced (and have documented results) but what we really don't have are the times the production wasn't there. This type of philosophy can be applied year round as well.

This is sick, thanks! It would be awesome to compile a breakdown of how many "storms" have occurred each cold season (obviously you would have to establish several definitions here) and then you can assess the pattern averaged seasonally and then break things down further from there...down to a monthly level and then maybe weekly level.

I wish we had such a better database regarding winter storms. And by that I mean more organized. Not only that but obviously you have the discrepancies and lots of lost data from the mid-90's to the early 2000's. Anyways if there was some sort of database where you can click on a winter season and acquire a list of every single storm/event (including totals) having such information I think could go a substantial way in long-range forecasting (pertaining to winter). While there has been a ton of success with various methods out there relying heavily on analogs, or making a base comparison based on ENSO phase can only go far. I also wish there was a better breakdown of the many indices which exist instead of these "monthly averages". They're fine and good and all but they aren't going to highlight or address short-term phase changes and that is what is most important. One example is the WPO which has a very strong correlation to the pattern configuration from the Pacific through North America and you can even argue it may even drive some of the northern hemisphere teleconnections. The WPO can also go through some wild swings on a seasonal basis.

We are really due for a -WPO winter. The last winter that we had a predominately -WPO was 2013-2014.

Power outages down into the 270,000's so some definite progress.

We've had some pretty impressive systems digging into the West with unseasonably warm/moist conditions from the central U.S to the East.

Saturday as low topped coastal superell/TOR potential

Power outages slowly, slowly, slowly ticking down.

Phil is like the new Santa Clause

Maybe they all use solar energy

Well the over won on this bet! Highest I found (though I'll admit I didn't dig hard so these may not be correct) BDL: 43 mph BOS: 56 mph HVN: 43 mph (overnight) ORH: 43 I didn't search Blue Hills

He's getting the film developed as we speak

It's absolutely ridiculous.

Can hear the wind starting to howl here a bit

Over/under on anyone beating this

12 now... will be 11 in a few weeks after clock change

Got about 60-70 knots at 925 just-offshore. Going to really start cranking in eastern sections even more in the next few hours Even a bit of a diffuse warm front along the coastal Plain...with a smudge of elevated instability but just of Long Island.

These winds have me thinking... Next year when there is a derecho pegged to rip across Iowa I'm taking off from work, going out to Iowa and going into a field and going to build a giant stake and tie myself to it in the path of 100-mph winds.

woah when? I missed that. but these wind forecasts are for overnight

bufkit not very impressive at ORH really 54-mph

My wind forecasts: BDL: 48 mph BOS: 64 mph ORH: 52 mph PVD: 61 mph Blue Hills: 82 mph

We all can have a group tickle session