weatherwiz

Well the same logic would apply with that. With convective events and convective setups you're generally not going to get a widespread much needed rain. On a magnitude of scale, convection is just too small. You're always going to have a case where some towns get hit while others don't (now some situations more will get hit than not) but you can't rely on convection to provide a widespread much needed rain. This is why we rely quite a bit on getting at least seasonal snowfall totals and at least a few spring nor'easters to build up water tables for the summer and then for fall nor'easters to replenish what is lost during the summer. What we have lacked out a bit on the past few years is widespread synoptic rains which tend to be associated with warms fronts.

I think the biggest challenge overall is how these events are perceived. There seems to be a mindset that every single setup has to result in a widespread outbreak or all parameters need to be perfect. Was yesterday really a bust? I mean there were some severe weather reports but was it a bust? This answer is tied into how an individual is perceiving the potential and what they're expecting. When we look at and discuss parameters whether it be shear, CAPE, lift, lapse rates, height falls, forcing, etc. there is a tendency to only look for what is typically found with high end events. High end events don't happen often and there is a reason for that. Even other areas of the country where sure they have a higher tendency for higher end events, but they still don't happen with a high frequency. At the end of the day, no setup is ever going to have perfect parameters, not every setup is going to produce as a high end event, but does that mean every single event that doesn't mean these criteria is a bust? I mean when it comes to convective forecasting how can an event be a bust anyways?

In New Britain getting my severe downpour

The next bust. Only season that doesn’t bust around here is spring. Cold, windy, and crap.

Maybe I need my eyes re-checked

Can severe rains be a thing and count as severe?

Ahhh just saw a tweet…mid level dry air may be the culprit here…

Mesos did pick up on something. Kind of want to dig into all the equations that are used within them. I know height falls weren’t great but I didn’t think there were terrible. At least they weren’t rising which is what we had a week ago or whatever. How often do we do height falls well anyways? I mean we should have still had at least some severe or even storms and pretty much nil. I mean they had decent storms in NJ/LI and height falls were probably worse or just the same.

More therapeutic

The HRRR backed off a lot which I guess should have been a sign but it was also a bit inconsistent from run-to-run from last night into this morning. The 3km seemed to be pretty aggressive (which usually never is and I thought that may have been a sign). this isn’t the first time though we have seen a setup very similar to this where nothing popped. Maybe the forcing really is weak? Is there some sort of cap that’s just not breaking?

Our government sucks. Them and their stupid cutbacks so they can play golf on nicer courses. Days like today the NWS should be able to have ample resources to do additional balloon launches and even at special spots. Like 18z could have been launched at ALB, OKX, BDL, and a few other spots so we can get an actual diagnostic sense of the atmosphere. There’s something preventing stuff from popping and it’s not freaking morning cloud cover. We recovered

This is bullshit. We should just never get another Convective threat again b/c this is pure, 100%, straight up bullshit. You mean to tell me we can’t get crap to form outside of some stupid lillydaddy cell. What the hell else do we need, instability is plenty. I don’t give a crap that it was cloudy at 10:00 AM…it’s not fooking 10:00 AM anymore. It was 3:00 and the sun came out…enough to tan naked and temps soared well into the 80’s, dewpoints are high, shear is damn high, perfect timing of the front, height falls, slight cooling along AND WE STILL CANT GET CRAP TO FORM. It’s fooking stupid

Was wondering if maybe convergence was lacking but looks like quite a bit of moisture convergence across SNE.

Does look like some convection is trying to fill in. Anything that does form though is likely going to become severe quickly.

Nice mid level meso on that storm near Clinton

Only thing I can think of is if there is any sort of subsidence going on. Maybe we’re between shortwaves? On mobile so water vapor imagery a pain

I’d be stunned if we don’t see additional development as the front gets a bit closer. The HRRR isn’t showing much but I just don’t buy it. 18z 3km NAM backed off a bit but still is a bit more than the HRRR. Given the degree of CAPE/shear I’d be shocked.

I think there is still some CIN in place which may explain the lack of additional development. would think though we should start seeing stuff pop quickly off to the West over the next 60-minutes. If that doesn't happen then it probably won't.

Looks like we're mixing out dews a bit with winds taking on a more W trajectory now at the sfc. With that any tornado potential is probably significantly reduced. And now we will get several TORs

IDK...I think this is actually better overall than last week. We got some decent clearing coming in quickly. While that LIS anvil blowover is giving us clouds now that is moving ENE. I have a feeling around 3-4 we're going to start popping supercells in the HV and they move east and eventually form a line across central MA/CT.

Hodographs are forecast to become more straight as the afternoon progresses, however, this is something to watch which we lacked last week. If any mid-level mesocyclone becomes established there would be a higher than usual potential for a tornado today. Given the favorable low-level parameters (shear/CAPE/LCL's) low-level vortex could become elongated and interact with mid-level cyclone and voila...TOR

Watch out!!!

We may actually get a few hours of good heating. Nothing developing behind the garden sprinkler moving through CT. POU looks like they're reporting mostly sunny

We live downstream of where it all begins and we seldom get EML's in here to provide a cap and erode crap.

This is where the bulk of activity is going to likely start and fire off. It does look like there may be some room to thin clouds out a bit and get some additional heating. CAMs still pretty inconsistent with how everything evolves which makes it tough. I'm still leaning towards widespread storms across Connecticut which may strengthen as they move towards E CT