weatherwiz

As far as I see it this has been about as typical of a spring as you could expect here. We’ve had a mix of just about everything.

Let’s make it happen!

It's so difficult to put so much stock into medium/long-range guidance this time of year, especially when the flow is very chaotic. Looks like over the upcoming weeks we'll see very similar weather to that of April. There are some opportunities for some very mild-to-warm days upcoming but crummy days may be just as equal. Don't like the omega block look though that seems to be popping up. Need to get rid of the favorable pattern allowing for cut-off/closed off lows off the coast of Maine dragging down heights.

May actually see some convective potential sometime during the first half of next week...perhaps multiple days with potential. Some pretty decent shortwave energy coming in from the West with strong flow aloft. There will be opportunity to warm sector too with an established 850 low passing well to our West. Not much (right now anyways) showing up to prevent warm front from penetrating north at the surface (obviously can always change).

At the start of this thread, May is only 6-days away which means the start of severe weather season is right around the corner!!! April has proven to be a rather typical spring month here in New England with some rather warm days, some rather chilly days, days with rain, and even some snow. As we head towards the month of May, there are some conflicting signals within the long-range guidance. If one just looks at an averaged 500mb pattern you can draw conclusions, but at the end of the day those conclusions will probably not be accurate. The conflicting signals likely correlate to the fact that the pattern across North America will continue to remain volatile and perhaps dominated by a series of ridges/troughs propagating through the country. One of the biggest factors may be how the pattern is configured around the Arctic (most notable the NAO/AO). Typically, these indices start having less influence on the pattern as you move through spring, but they can certainly shape the pattern and play big factors through May. And unfortunately, there are conflicting signals on the evolution of these indices moving through May. Let's just hope that whatever happens, we can get into some patterns which usher in big heat, high humidity, EML's, and lots of convection!!

lawns were only good for passing out on after too many 40's

Everything always starts growing at about the same time every year...the same time. Conditions can certainly speed up the rate of growth or slow down the rate of growth but things will always start around the same time. It's encoded in plans/trees/grass DNA.

As long as something is living...it's growing.

EML's for all.

I hope we don't have to deal with a persist cyclone like we did the first few months of last spring/summer but it keeps popping up on models. I hope as we go deep into May the pattern alters slightly (no low heights just to our north) and we can run a train of EML's in here

ahh this is more like it

The wind gusts are crazy. Are there links for like real-time wind speeds? I'm in Springfield and checked what CEF was reporting along with BDL and the wind gusts on the last obs certainly is far less than what's going on now.

Getting chilly with the rain but it smells so good.

Lightning increasing around that broad meso

Please strengthen so the warning can be extended!!!!!! Don’t weaken…don’t pull this weakening shit. Everywhere I fooking go storms always gotta fooking weaken.

Thunder!!!!!

hoping for a slight more east trajectory

tyeah should be close. which side are you on?

That cell is definitely riding a boundary. Some enhanced shear along it

NASTY cell over Norfolk .

hmm that's a nice looking potentially developing meso on that cell heading towards me in Springfield!!!!!!! Maybe I'll get to see the Springfield tornado...only 11 years later