weatherwiz

Hoping for some strong convective chances Friday/Saturday. Won't be anything crazy for the region as a whole as lapse rates will blow but maybe some localized wet microbust potential

Not really surprised with this GFS run really. Always thought it was a bit too aggressive with keeping the low closed off for so long given the indications of the trough lifting/de-amplifying. This isn't to say this weekend will be precipitation free. There's certainly going to be some lift around and with a warm/moist llvl airmass we'll see areas of downpours and thunderstorms develop during the day.

Where pockets of stronger heating break out over the weekend temps will surge well into the 70's and perhaps even lower 80's.

Should certainly see some convection with this system. Maybe opportunity for some strong stuff

EML's?

The difference is more between closed low or closed low becoming an open wave and de-amplifying against cut-off

selling the "cutoff"...if that can even be characterized as a cutoff

I love the 500mb look the GFS has moving into the first week of June. Not saying it will happen this way but as is that's a great look for thunderstorm chances. We're on the crest of strong mid-level ridging across the South so pretty strong westerly/west-northwesterly mid-level flow. Would keep opportunities for cooler mid-level temps with potential EML plumes and we can get advection of hot/humid air at the sfc. The look will probably change but if you're ever looking for a look which can offer up solid convective shots...that's one look

Outflow

Got to see some decent lightning at least…just like the Florida Panthers

Just the CG and BOOM

HOLY SHIT HUGE KABOOM

Really decent outflow winds here in Springfield

Hoping so! Been so many mixed signals on the pattern for the last week of May/first week of June. Been some hints at some sort of cut-off. If that doesn't verify we could get into a tasty pattern.

My guess would be BOX wasn't in agreement for a watch this early or maybe even at all. May see a new WW issued later but honestly I'm not so sure one is really warranted. Seems like this activity is going to fizzle rather quickly.

That is one massive watch https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0262.html

Be curious to see if that northern area is a TOR. LCL's on the high side but some curvature to the hodos.

They absolutely are. They were phenomenal too with communication and everything.

What a scary situation yesterday. I’ve been living with my aunt the past several years. I’ve been helping her out a lot as she has health issues going on. But end of February my girlfriend developed health issues and was diagnosed with a bad condition so I’ve been temporarily living with her. Anyways, my aunt called me last evening that there was a fire. The house is a ranch style condo. So one half of the building is ours (which she owns) and the other side has renters who rent from a different owner. I guess a fire broke out in the attic. Our side of the building suffered no damage. The other side suffered damage. My aunt was very scared b/c we have two cats and she couldn’t get them. But after everything was settled we were allowed back in and got the cats and she’ll be able to return home Monday when the power/gas can be turned back on. I am just so thankful the fire department is 30 seconds away and nobody was hurt. Our neighbors unfortunately lost their hamster though

This is how it should be everyday from May 1 - Nov 30. 90’s with 70’s dews

Sounds pretty terrible in Gaylord, MI...not good

Would be her best chance of seeing 6'' this weekend

Wasn't it

If a well-defined cold pool materializes we could maybe see a situation where rather strong outflow winds even propagate into southern Connecticut. This would also depend on how intense/large the complex can form in PA. Outflow could also spark some additional convection, especially if we can get some elevated instability in out ahead of it.