weatherwiz

This is how it should be everyday from May 1 - Nov 30. 90’s with 70’s dews

Sounds pretty terrible in Gaylord, MI...not good

Would be her best chance of seeing 6'' this weekend

Wasn't it

If a well-defined cold pool materializes we could maybe see a situation where rather strong outflow winds even propagate into southern Connecticut. This would also depend on how intense/large the complex can form in PA. Outflow could also spark some additional convection, especially if we can get some elevated instability in out ahead of it.

Could be some real nasty storms in PA later on. Wouldn't be surprised to see an ENH in the new outlook which should be out soon. Think even coastal CT has a shot depending on where the instability gradient sets up.

Squash is the stupidest thing ever.

There's definitely some opportunity for some elevated convection to pop tomorrow evening. Actually, we could even see thunderstorms moving through during the afternoon. Some models hint at the MCV which develops later this evening within the OV maintaining and moving across our region during the day. But tomorrow night we have the nose of the EML moving in, ample elevated CAPE, and a pretty solid theta-e ridge off to the west. Could certainly see some strong storms pop with the risk for small hail.

Yup...upper support certainly appears to go more zonal, meanwhile looks like the front becomes parallel to the mid-level flow. That alone would slow down the progression of the front but when you add in the upper support going more zonal and being displaced farther west from the front...that results in the tug back. If you look at the models tomorrow evening and watch the QPF field there are some rather interesting conclusions which can be drawn. This is shown really well on the CAMs but you get a line which develops just ahead of the front but the line actually appears to retrograde back to the northwest.

ahhh that's right...that was some epic historic flooding along the Mississippi/Missouri Rivers in 1993.

I think 1993 had some pretty big severe events in NY/PA too with damaging winds.

If we start seeing fronts wash out and weaken as they approach before we get into July...we'll have a problem

The way that front is slowing down it may not come through here until Wednesday Some funky stuff happens tomorrow night too...looks like the front actually retreats to the northwest a bit back into the Missouri Valley region as opposed to continuing towards the Ohio Valley.

Front coming through a little too late for us

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/epo.data

I actually have heard of that! IIRC those were the strongest convective winds recorded in New England...which then of course was matched just two years later.

I just realized...I foresaw this in my dream a few weeks back when models were showing BDL pushing 100

850's look to be about a +2.5-3 SD...that's pretty impressive.

HI is virtually only important to determine how many people will drop like flies. I know BDL's daily record high for Saturday is 93. All time May record is 99 which has been achieved twice.

Ideally we want 98/65+ even moreso...98/70's

It's really more of a personal observation. I have done some searching to see if there was any documentation on this or any published papers but I never really found anything. But if you were to look at bufkit sounding every day (either for a particular location or a bunch of locations) and compare the NAM/GFS you'll almost always see the GFS show stronger/deeper mixing. I think another example of this can be MOS...how many times do you really see the NAM spit out higher temperatures than the GFS? The only times it seems the NAM has a much better handle is when you have a front nearby, something to really inhibit mixing, or if the wind flow makes sense (for example, we all know what a SE wind can do do temps here in the summer...the NAM may handle that better than GFS). I've never been able to come up with a sound reasoning or basis for this though. My guess is it has to do with the equations related to boundary layer depth/mixing but my math skills are too poor to really dig deeper into that. I first started this though when partaking in the Weather Challenge. One year the location was somewhere down in Alabama. It was the first day of the challenge too. It was a tough forecast b/c clouds were involved with potential for mixing. I think the NAM MOS was a high in the mid 70's with the GFS upper 70's or maybe 81. When I was doing mixing heights via bufkit I think I was getting lower 80's on NAM and mid 80's on GFS. I ended up going 86 for a forecast high (which was 7-8F above the national consensus)...their high ended up being 86 Kept me in first for the first week then I dropped off b/c of botched precip. forecasts week 2.

This is an excellent post and provides a great visual for explaining such scenarios. You're right...alot of people probably don't have passion (or even care) for these type of events...but the meteorology involved is extremely fascinating. What I bolded I think I also kinda outlined with the bufkit sounding for BDL Saturday. The GFS indicates a deeply mixed airmass across the interior Saturday with a very evident EML moving overhead during the day. Below the EML we're looking at a lapse rate (sfc to the base of the EML) closing in on 10 C/KM. I think having the presence of an EML here is HUGE in terms of eliciting this potential. This will limit clouds and allow for maximum mixing/heating. Now...what's always a challenge is the GFS has a tendency to overmix while the NAM has a tendency to undermix, however, I tend to find in scenarios where you have 'sensible' weather the GFS is much more accurate. And you hit the nail on the head in the final sentence...ultimately low-level and surface wind flow component is going to play a significant role. A trajectory which is more WSW vs. SW could be the difference in 5-7F across locations where marine flow tends to be an influence.

Still some big differences too on rain tonight/tomorrow morning but looks like there will be a narrow west-to-east corridor of heavy rain...where that axis sets up is a bit uncertain. May have to favor south?

GFS bufkit still indicating potential for mid-to-upper 90's in the Hartford area Saturday A bit of a marine later showing up at places like HVN and BDR, however, that is a very warm llvl airmass and wind component may be a bit more land than ocean. Could certainly see upper 80's even at HVN and BDR but once you get very close to the sound probably be like 7-10F cooler

Right Certainly can't rule out some elevated storms though Saturday night