weatherwiz
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Everything posted by weatherwiz
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Your posts have been some of the best in here and I look forward to the most. Keep them up!
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Well that NHC track is about worst case scenario for CT from this event
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That’s what I thought. Wasn’t sure…laying in bed, on my phone, and don’t have glasses on
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Is it me or did the NHC nudge west with track with 11 PM update? Also increased surge in LIS to 3-5 feet along CT shore
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Another strengthening cane just before landfall
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that last tug NW after landfall leads me to believe the farther east track may be more of a blip but we'll see. But perhaps after seeing the 0z global + hurricane models stay pat with mean track maybe it's not too shocking to see 0z NAM slide east some.
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That's going to be some pretty prolific rainfall totals in that scenario. For some areas do hit hardest this summer. Flooding would be pretty devastating in some areas
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it did look like from 36-42 it was going to tug NW but went opposite 42 on. Actually...it does get tugged NW but just after landfall
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NAM definitely east...3km a bit west of that. 3km run is bad news for much of cT
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tough to tell but looks like it's already starting to weaken too...just judging based on the decreased size of the >70kt wind field at 925
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The 0z NAM looks a little stronger with ridging ahead of Henri and also is stronger with the jet max on the east side of the ulvl trough. Wonder if this will favor a tug west from the NAM
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ahh yes my mistake...they have it get to 85 mph. yeah that's what has me a bit nervous...this thing never really weakened or lost its characteristics in the hostile environment. So who knows what happens moving into the AM
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yeah just saw that...not too bad. If this thing does get its act together its primed to strengthen pretty quickly. Looks like the NHC never has it getting above 75 mph but idk...get this thing to be more stacked and not tilted and this could blow up like 20-25 knots
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HRRR would actually be good for some TOR's
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Robert Kraft tug and pull
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Henri now playing peek-a-boo on the Northeast panel view on the 0z HRRR...getting in view soon
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If you have to drive through 95 during the storm I would advise against that. Parts of 95 flood horribly and I bet it would be disastrous with this
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Probably happen as the center nears CT. low pressure makes babies pop
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Staying pat on the 0z
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After Tomorrow?
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looks to have remained steady
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I don't think it can be discounted...but I am not a hurricane forecaster. I mostly rely on the model intensity guidance (which can be very iffy...especially in RI environments...this isn't one of those but I don't want to fully base something off a chart). Given the significance of that type of strengthening has on the outcome...it needs to be considered.
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If this does strengthen into a category 2 or a higher-end category 1 we are in very deep trouble here
