weatherwiz

I actually vaguely remember this event. This did occur right around the time of the upgrade if I'm recalling correctly...it was this event and a few others across the country which I think highlighted the super cold bias the model then had.

It does appear there is some hope for such a scenario to occur (if we indeed see a cut-off that aggressive). We'll see what happens...both Euro/GFS in general agreement for this cut-off scenario but GFS is just way more intense. I wonder too if there is a great deal of "feedback" here just because of all the convection that is likely to occur within the Plains this week. Much of this shortwave energy which ends up responsible for the cut-off stems from convection in the Plains.

This is where I think the low confidence comes in because this could be a situation where the ensembles will be useless because of the smoothing involved or maybe the OP is just too aggressive with this feature. I am leaning towards the ensembles just being useless in this scenario because if you look at the OP it's not really a consistent static (key word here) pattern. There is some deviation in the day-to-day regime. This just leads me to believe we will continue to see a pattern in which we get some pleasant days in (but will still struggle at times to reach climo) and some days which are like today. ensembles are just going to be pretty pointless for the foreseeable future just due to how chaotic the pattern is.

The pattern for the upcoming few weeks is just a giant pain in the fanny. I don't think I'd have much confidence at all in a medium/long-range forecast for the upcoming few weeks. The highest overall confidence seems to be within the West with a fairly sizeable ridge developing in the West but this may not be a long-term established ridge unlike the past few years. The bigger challenge is how the pattern evolves across the central and eastern U.S. The overall look does look omega block-ish which can be horrific for us...but there is some great uncertainty as to where the trough axis becomes established. While the upcoming look may be unseasonably cool with clouds/precip chances we can't totally rule out a scenario where we get some over-the-top warmth coming in from Canada. Maybe another scenario upcoming where NNE bakes while SNE is cool/cloudy.

Today was pure COC. Nothing better than waking up to pure COC to kick off May.

Happy May!!!

HAPPY MAY 1!!!!!

We just gotta have patience

45 minutes!!!

56 minutes until severe season

It’s Stein season

I’m so excited!!! It’s like New Year’s. I’m going to make a ball and drop it at midnight

Great day. Could have been like 7F warmer but lovely day…went to East Rock Brewing and now at Two Roads sitting outside.

It is a bit puzzling. Thus far there has been a 4” hail report and a handful of 2”+ reports but majority are 1-1.75”.

You know…I’ve always wondered how/why specific hail size gets mentioned in these watches but I guess there’s enough research done where you can have a very good idea on what the max hail size will be…but how often in severe setups do you see max hail size be a widespread thing? Thing in this case how many 5” hail reports will there truly be?

5” hail possible. can’t wait to get into some of this potential soon

This does suck. It's supposed to be well into the 60's now. I mean 50's felt fine going into the month but it sucks when you can't even climo.

yeah right

Perhaps the most frustrating thing this time of year is looking at forecast CAPE values on the GFS and watching bigger CAPE values trying to sneak into the Northeast and then BOOM...gone, bye-bye

ugly...U...G...L...Y May is going bye-bye

Fading hope for some really nice warm days next week

Only when it’s below 80

I’m still wearing a light jacket, sweatshirt, and a winter hat

Based on how the past several years have transpired I would fully expect that we flip the switch and go right into summer-mode probably sometime in June. This seems to have been the theme the past several years. I know going the base of consistency is never the best route to go but until something breaks this it's a plausible way to think.

Agreed with this. How things have gone should not really be shocking at all. I think we've just been spoiled by some of the anomalously warm springs we had gone through over the past 10-15 years. Does it blow...it absolutely blows, I think everyone is tired of chilly weather and cold winds...especially when we've had the pleasure of having some very nice days and warm temperatures but we've seen nothing out of the ordinary this spring.