weatherwiz

Model Intensity Guidance for the most part does not go above category 1...still though, given the area this is in I would not dismiss anything at this juncture. These next 24-hours are huge. I mean any sort of slight trend towards favorable conditions and this could take off in a heart beat...and we've seen that happen numerous times within this region.

I wonder if this will be upped a bit at 2:00...latest recon did find an area of pretty strong winds

I could envision a scenario where convection tires to develop but it struggles to become deep enough to really utilize the ingredients...only exception may be right along the warm front. You can definitely see areas of warming aloft on various forecast soundings which is not very good to see. I kinda like northeast PA for anything. May see overlap of best ingredients occur there...plus some extra lift from the warm front.

something must be up with the PSU bufkit page b/c I have been having issues with bufget all week. I swear...there's always fooking problems somewhere...like WTF??? People can't fix stuff? The NWS products...more specifically the SPC page has been nothing but pure garbage the past few months.

I like the pants dying aspect

I just thought of something...we could see TOR's ripping through Sunday taking down trees and power poles and whatever if left standing is taken down by Isaias Tuesday/Wednesday.

sounds like the former Red Sox SS prospect

Biggest key is basically where this stands when it's around the latitude of NC/SC and where the eye is. If it's off the coast and in positioning for strengthening...well then we gotta start thinking this is going to be a big hit.

12z guidance is pretty impressive...gotta keep in mind the inhibiting factors though. If you follow Anthony Maisello on Twitter he's laid those out perfectly. Warming mid-level temps/capping and subsidence. Anyways, anytime you see theta-e values that rich combined with the degree of shear in place...you're eyes better be open.

OMG

it does seem like its trying to get its act together. some impressive hot towers blowing up. Also, HOW THE HELL DO YOU PRONOUNCE THiS SUCKERS NAME???

This is a completely different scenario than Fay...IMO. Perhaps the second half of the week would be more likely to be on the drier side as the flow flattens out but regardless of what happens with Isaias the flow is strong and southerly with an approaching front. Even if it were to go into FL...I am sure we would tap into moisture and advect it northward.

ehh not sure I totally agree with that. Given the position of the trough axis and mean flow ahead of it we'll get typical summer-time pop up downpours and t'storms daily...but to your point certainly nothing that would provide widespread relief.

I'm sure too the size has to play a significant factor in the progression of it as it moves up the coast. I thought too that these systems typically expand as they move north in latitude (especially if the system is transitioning from tropical to sub-tropical or extra-tropical). A smaller system could also perhaps mean a higher probability for some significant impact on a localized level?

Talk about agreement We could see that for a blizzard here and the storm would still go OTS or cut west

Ahhh interesting...thanks. This system does look to be rather small and compact. This is great, thank you!

I completely agree with your thoughts...makes ton of sense and there is historical backing to those thoughts as well. What site did you get that second graphic from?

Seems like it is also being impacted by some westerly shear? I haven't looked at shear forecasts moving forward but is shear to become more or less favorable?

Do you think we see any type of PRE with this? Models look a bit dry for Monday (though they get wetter Monday night) but given the flow Monday with some lift you have to wonder if we'll see some heavy rain around...maybe not exactly PRE.

I also recall the euro doing a similar solution with (I think it was Michael?) last year? That is certainly possible...I think we'll know just how possible though by this evening. I am shocked this was kept a cat 1 given the recent recon flights. But, if we start seeing signs of strengthening or organization over the next several hours this solution IMO can be tossed pretty quickly...but for now it's something to consider.

All solutions are possible at this stage, however, all these ENS probs are pretty pointless right now. I mean confidence in what happens with Isaias over the next 24-hours is extremely low...so forget about 4-5 days down the road. The prospects for 4-5 days down the road is highly dependent on evolution over the next 24-36 hours so until we get through this period what models shows 4-5 days out is rather pointless.

Is it normal for two recon flights to be flying into a storm at the same time? (Starting to follow tropical much more closely and learn more since it's my weakest aspect of the field).

they typically tend to perform rather well in these setups...I suppose those some nasty cells could try and sneak into Fairfiled County...maybe into the Berkshires too? Anyways, given the degree of llvl instability combined with the look of the hodos that's enough to peak some excitement. Maybe I'll go chasing...if I find someone to go with. I don't like doing it alone

A warm front approaches Sunday advecting rich llvl moisture/theta-e northward combined with increasing shear. Just south of the warm front near moderate instability is possible despite weak lapse rates given dewpoints surging well into the 70's. MLCAPE values could approach 2,000 J/KG...especially if there is enough sunshine. Combination of strong wind shear and moderate buoyancy will result in the development of scattered t'storms...including potential for supercell t'storms. The greatest risk will be damaging winds, however, forecast hodographs exhibit large/curved hodos so the threat for isolated tornadoes is possible. Despite the poor lapse rates this event has the chance to be a fairly decent severe event...although perhaps moreso across PA/NY, however, southwest SNE needs to watch closely.

Yeah...at first I thought the track was a lol but then looking aloft I was like oh ****. If this type of configuration remains modeled like through tomorrow then concern has to be raised