weatherwiz

Today's 12z runs should steer us in a direction which will be geared towards the outcome. Even if we continue to see some divergence I think we'll be able to piece together which way to hedge.

Not even sure what to make of this run. The upper-level look was pretty ugly. Guess just have to wait and see what the GEFS show. If the mean is east or there is more east members that might give some merit to this run but if mean is west or more west members this can maybe be tossed.

My gut says as we get closer we'll see the NAM reflect these changes aloft at the surface. The most important thing we want to continue seeing are changes (in the positive direction) aloft. The confluence discussed though is something that needs to be considered too.

Just the upper-levels alone...you're going to have a rapid blossoming of precipitation well west

NAM will become very useful when it's really time to zone in one mesoscale aspects (banding, potential subsidence)

the differences between the handling of the southern stream vs 18z is insane. definitely giving more credence that the 18z was messed up

Bingo

I think the typical consensus is once you start getting inside of 3 days so probably pretty close. But because of the continued uncertainties they might be useful even inside day 3. This is because if you have more members leaning in one direction, even if it's opposing the op, it may be hard to ignore that probability.

72 hours...wow

at 66hr

That's what I love with bufkit...the cobb11. Seems to do pretty well with ratios. Although sometimes I think maybe slightly overdone but usually I'll just go with a few ticks below what it's output is (depending on the situation)

Sweet 18z EPS rolling out. Trying to telepathically send good vibes.

Another chance to see big snow totals if the 10:1 maps are failing

I just saw a spider crawl from under the front door up the door...which means it came in from outside. I read somewhere back in the day that if spiders are trying to get inside before a snowstorm it means big snow coming

He's getting some extra jogging in since he may not be able to get out his door for a few days

That map looks like my nieces artwork went through the wash machine...

It came back down

Yup...and given where we are still at time wise a shift of such magnitude is more than likely and in either direction. What direction that is remains to be seen.

The freakouts are getting a bit ridiculous. This is still really 2.5+ days away. I know it seems plausible to want to see such strong agreement and consistency but the truth of the matter is we're still within the time frame where subtle differences are going to occur. Forgetting about these east vs. west swings, at the end of the day, we're not asking for significant changes here. For things to come together and be a very high-impact event for most...it's not like a ton has to happen for that to happen. There is a difference in needing drastic or substantial changes and very subtle.

I was thinking about this on the drive home. Hasn't there been a tendency this year for models wanting to hold back energy into the southwest? Completely different season and all but I remember many convective events where there was potential for you're higher end severe setups but there was always hesitancy from the SPC to go higher probs in the D3-8 range b/c of the models holding back energy in the southwest...but as we got within 2-3 days all of a sudden models sped up energy. I think this was the case too even with the December outbreak and also with several systems that have traversed the south in the fall and even winter. This is just based on memory so there may be some data to debunk this.

Very happy to see some improved look within the upper-levels. That's what really matters most at this stage. I would have hedged a bit west based on the evolution and I would at least think much more QPF thrown west. If 18z GEFS have more west than east members not really going to sweat much.

I have zero energy for that anymore. It blows.

Bruins play at 10:00 tonight...all the reason to stay up for the NAM/GFS...or try too. I miss the days of staying up for the 0z runs

Great stuff and write-up Ray (as per the usual). We share the same thinking for the most part.