weatherwiz

Scary wording Mesoscale Discussion 0390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1037 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Iowa...northwestern Illinois...and far northeastern Missouri Concerning...Outlook upgrade Valid 311537Z - 311630Z SUMMARY...Portions of the Moderate Risk over southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO will be upgraded to a categorical High Risk in the 1630 UTC Convective outlook. DISCUSSION...An upgrade to a tornado-driven High Risk (30% probability) is expected for the 1630 UTC outlook. Environmental conditions are quickly becoming favorable to support the potential for numerous strong to potentially violent and long-track tornadoes across portions of southeastern IA, northwestern IL, and far northeastern MO. Please see the forthcoming Day 1 outlook update for more information. ..Lyons/Smith.. 03/31/2023

Yeah if this regime remains through the next few months it's going to be very active. In fact, I think we may be above-average for tornado counts this year thus far. There were some pretty impressive January and February events. There were even setups that didn't pan out so the counts could really be more. SST's are crazy warm in the Gulf so you get deep troughs into the West this time of year and strong s/w ejecting, it's a recipe for widespread outbreaks within that region.

No...I don't believe there really is a correlation between what happens there and what happens here. There are many reasons for this, but one striking one is just the atmospheric profile. That region is prone to high-end severe weather events because of the elevated mixed-layer, which tends to weaken with eastward extent. Some say there is a connection between what happens in Michigan the day before but I think that is voodoo. That just came about b/c of 1953. I mean I guess you could look at our "bigger" events and then see what happened in Michigan the day before but I think it's a unrelated-correlation.

HRRR has multiple lines of superells along with some QLCS. Going to be really ugly if that verifies. Some pretty big cities in this area too.

Wowzers

Happy Severe Season!!!!! Should have been countdown to April 1 and not May 1

You gotta spin to win

18z HRRR with violence around Chicago tomorrow

Let's keep the active pattern rolling right through the spring and eventually right into our area once the heat/humidity gates open up

All the whiffs from Stanton and Cordero will make it feel even colder

They were probably high on some exotic Arctic drug

Man this is a pretty scary environment in western Tennessee tomorrow. A bit of a veer-back-veer going on but if that instability is realized with this shear it's going to be ugly. I guess thankfully mode looks predominately QLCS, but any supercells out ahead of the line or rooted within the QLCS. I wouldn't be shocked to see increased tornado probs a bit farther north into KY up to IL border

Just get it out of here before May

Well only 32-days until May first and like another 16-17 before the GFS does a peek-a-boo into May!!! Also going to get a nice pre-severe season treat Saturday

Could be a decent little swath of wind damage. Decent llvl CAPE and not only are mlvl lapse rates pretty steep, helping to boost instability, but llvl lapse rates are pretty steep too.

IIRC correctly, the 2015-2016 EL Nino...weren't initial projects for a weak EL Nino or am I remembering incorrectly?

Seems like a pretty impressive warm sector for in terms of dew points surging northward. Dynamics are through the roof. The warm sector seems messy though with lots of precip which may hinder instability and dampen lapse rates. That is an impressively large enhanced risk, but given some of the questions, I think you'll see some more concentrated pockets of widespread wind damage and not as extensive as the enhanced risk. southern Iowa into northern Missouri and western Illinois may be greatest overall potential.

Well the official start to severe season is just over a month away, but that doesn't mean we can't get some strong convective threats prior to then. Through the day, an area of surface low pressure moves across southeast Canada with a warm front lifting northward across southern New England and a trailing cold front moving east across New York and Pennsylvania. During the morning, rain and embedded thunderstorms move across the region, then we dry out a bit and become mostly cloudy with temperatures climbing into the 50's and 60's with dewpoints climbing into the 50's. Mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.5 C/KM are also expected to overspread the region. The presence of these steep lapse rates will help contribute to several hundred joules of mixed-layer CAPE Saturday afternoon ahead of the front with strong dynamics. While there is an abundance of dry air throughout the column, enough convergence is expected along the front to help aid in the development of a line of rain and thunderstorms. Embedded damaging wind gusts and hail are possible within the strongest cores!!!

I was debating starting a severe thread. Not a fan of how dry alot of soundings looked though...but there may be enhanced convergence right along the front. Good sign to see models with decent QPF signal.

Great sign to see...getting pretty CAPE colors into the OV now. Bodes well going into May/June as long as we don't have to do with any funny ULL parked to our north

weird...you would think it would mix out based on wind profile

It's not going to fall apart. It may weaken slightly but it may actually rejuvenate some by the coast. Should be a decent amount of lightning with this thing

There were certainly stretches this winter where the regime was more "Nino like" then La Nina. With the weakening Nina the atmospheric/oceanic coupling began to weaken. This is another major part of ENSO and it's influence on the pattern too. There is an atmospheric component of ENSO and oceanic. The pattern will be more reflective of what you would expect in a given ENSO state when the atmosphere and ocean are strongly coupled.

I don't have snowfall statistics but we've had Strong Nino's (especially early in the 1900's) which the pattern certainly looked like it could favor decent snow chances and those winters weren't blow torches either. It is interesting though that the warmest strong Ninos have occurred since the 80's. My list of Strong EL Nino's (super strong is ****)

eh not sure this is really flash freeze type stuff. It obviously will be a little slick where precipitation falls, but I wouldn't characterize this as flash freeze type stuff.