weatherwiz

woah is that what thundersnow looks like?

Feeling a bit more confident that convection is going to help us...for once. Look at this 850 fronto with that...if that can continue to fill in we're definitely going upper range

SNOW JUST STARTED!!!!!!!

Radar looks cute but ground obs are nada I'm very impatient

Beautiful, thank you! Going to get it now.

I do use wunderground but weatherTAP seems much better. I think I'll get weatherTAP too. I've always liked it. Does it come with an access code? I would try and install on personal/work computer.

is that weatherTAP radar free or paid service? I wish sometimes Radarscope would offer some regional or sub regional radar looks.

Initial band looking quite healthy with some hefty 700 fronto. Expecting it to be ripping here any moment

yeah wild looking cells, one with the TDS. Really intrigued to see how this convection impacts things downstream. It does have me nervous

18z NAM around BDL (or some place in Hartford County). Even a bit of a MAUL. Could certainly help with intense rates for a bit of a time

Well I guess now is a good time to start watching radar trends across OH and PA...which is actually fun because there is some severe weather involved. TDS near Carlisle, OH. Hopefully the radar blossoms beautifully in the upcoming hours

12z GFS bufkit for BDL. This is pretty damn solid. Pretty impressive ratios too with that heavier lift EDIT: Ratios as high as 13:1 to 15:1 with that

Hello summer

Most probably melts before then anyways

Yup...problem too is you really can't incorporate those type of processes into a forecast map. I guess the best thing you can do is hedge more towards the conservative side and then stress there is potential for some localized higher amounts.

Yup...that has been the consensus pattern we've been in which has continued to favor de-amplifying systems and cutter types with weakening QPF just due to decaying dynamics. It is a pleasure to see QPF increasing this close out and this is a big thanks to some increasing dynamics as the storm sort of re-evolves (so to speak). I am still a bit nervous about this though, especially with the signals of this being more convective in nature (as clarification speaking regarding Connecticut, obviously there are processes which occur further east which compensate).

This is why those things are just ridiculous. I'll admit, they have value in the short-term (as in <24-hours) and can be useful with picking up local maxima's/minima's and gradients, but anything beyond this term...it's just ridiculous, especially in medium-range. All they do is elicit merely unrealistic expectations and the hype train leaves the station and then eventually derails when reality sets in.

6z right around BDL...pretty solid. Start to get dry air seeping into the DGZ by 9z though. But it's pretty juicy

It was fun when I went to school at WestConn and being on the Westside Campus during mix events. At the top of the hill where housing was we would be getting snow (and accumulating snow) and you could walk down the hill and just see the transition happen in front of your eyes. There was one event it was almost like the line was drawn out between accumulation and non-accumulation.

There may still be some high clouds leftover across eastern sections

Looking outside the snow maps there have been some inconsistencies and certainly some flags. Why I remained with 3-6'' statewide instead of going anything higher. Where the best llvl fronto band and heaviest rates occur there may be some 6-7'' totals. But this all seems rather fast to me for those higher amounts to be widespread. You can see on the sim reflectivity's on many guidance that after the initial push of lift big issues start to occur. Even if we see lighter snows well into Tuesday morning or early afternoon I don't see it really accumulating to much (have to go northeast into Mass for that).

This is what really worries me. I'm envisioning a precip shield which is predominately light snow with poor ratios and snow growth with only embedded areas of enhanced lift where you'll have better rates/ratios. These systems with these convective looks have a way of screwing things up.

Who the hell knows where the max strip is going to be. Models have not been very consistent with some of these features.

I'm still thinking a general 3-6'' for Connecticut with maybe a few 7'' totals, but I think there are a little too many uncertainties to think that is likely. Seems like the window for the best lift and snow growth is rather small and even under that best lift snow rate are 1'' (maybe slightly more per hour). I'm also wondering if the convection crossing the Ohio Valley will factor into anything at all. Was wondering if it could actually help us in a sense.

6z NAM bufkit for BDL shows a pretty nice crosshair signature with a few hours of some impressive rates. Problem is for some higher totals (getting into 6-8'' range) is this period of lift is very brief. You can also see how quickly we start drying out