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weatherwiz

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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. weatherwiz
    No problem, just my quick assessment. I'm leaning towards a flip back over to snow during the very late afternoon or early evening there. It will be super interesting there, especially since the depth of the warmer layer is quite shallow.
  2. weatherwiz
    Looks to be eyeing on stronger lift within the DGZ zone. I don't totally buy an all snow-event for Portland though given some onshore flow and temps spiking up a bit, however, during bursts of stronger lift there could be flips to heavy snow or at least a mix. I think though rain could quickly flip to snow moving into evening as winds become more NE.
  3. weatherwiz
    GFS bufkit keeps Portland all snow with a dumping of it
  4. weatherwiz
    12z NAM bufkit for BDL. I kinda find it hard to believe ptype is rain around 6z. This also matches what the SREF has for a decent thump
  5. weatherwiz
    This is 9z but showing potential for a decent thump at BDL
  6. weatherwiz
    Sometimes these SHARPpy soundings can also be a bit wonky with their outputs too.
  7. weatherwiz
    Holy crap...that is a great sounding. Some of the soundings were showing potential for a pretty solid thump which lead to to think 2-4'' for northern half of Connecticut. I really hope that verifies.
  8. weatherwiz
    At least with 18z data yesterday it was tough to find that outside of southern Vermont down into the Berkshires and into extreme northwest Connecticut.
  9. weatherwiz
    One thing that makes me nervous (especially with my forecast for northern Connecticut) in the thump zones is the majority of the stronger lift is well above the DGZ. With a marginal profile (well boundary layer), even with the more intense lift it could be difficult to get much snow. Could be dealing with crappy flakes size and horrific ratios. Have to check some bufkit soundings a bit more in-depth but I would imaging ratios could be as bad as like 6:1
  10. weatherwiz
    This is a fantastic spot for the Berkshires. Not so great just west of them in the Hudson Valley lol. One thing to really watch is the decaying CCB...some signals this could continue to ail the Berkshires well into Friday night.
  11. weatherwiz
    The Berkshires are going to get destroyed. Essentially the Berkshires is the rest of the NHL and this storm is the Bruins. Wish you could easily animate this but a single-frame will have to do but it's just consistent intense lift...plus when you factor in an upslope flow. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few 18-24'' totals there
  12. weatherwiz
    This is really depressing. I'm considering going back to drinking 40's
  13. weatherwiz
    Been pretty busy but finally had some time over the past few hours to dig into the details. This is what I'm thinking for Connecticut. This ABSOLUTELY FOOKING SUCKS THAT IT'S COLD AS *** OUTSIDE AND YET WE'RE GOING TO GET A MESSY CRAP WITH RAIN. UN FOOKING FAIR https://weatherwiz.blogspot.com/2022/12/major-winter-storm-likely-for-northwest.html
  14. weatherwiz
    This has the makings of a pretty decent ice storm where CAD wins out...maybe not necessarily within our region but that CAD signal is quite intense and strong. Some of those valley areas aren't going to see that disturbed
  15. weatherwiz
    I guess where the secondary develops and where cyclogeneis gets going will play more of a significant roll in this, but that high to the northeast is so large and strong...its just hard to see warmer air bleeding too far into the interior. Again, an earlier developing secondary and strengthening one establishing the southerly flow ahead of it probably would override but I even think BDL is going to get a crushing from this.
  16. weatherwiz
    I think it's still a bit too far out to really discount anything. There are so many factors here that will be a determinant. One of them is how the baroclinic zone evolves there in the southeast which will be tied into how progressive the cold front is moving across the south. Move that a bit faster and the baroclinic zone gets shunted east.
  17. weatherwiz
    Haven't had much time to really look thoroughly in-depth, but I am a bit excited for this potential. Obviously coastal pees the excitement isn't there, but I don't think we're done seeing the coldest solution yet. This thing is going to be extremely dynamic as we have the supply of cold air...just have to lock that in. Going to be a big time gradient setting up though
  18. weatherwiz
    Pretty fun little storm. Always nice too when the first one goes about as expected.
  19. weatherwiz
    The end of the week is certainly interesting. The only expectations I have right now is that it's something to track and monitor. It's a very complex pattern and evolution so we're going to see a thousand potential solutions over the next few days. The pieces are there for a big storm, regardless of precip type.
  20. weatherwiz
    This is going to be such an amazing fun week of weather. Snow event here tonight, a pretty significant blizzard in the northern Plains, severe weather Tuesday evening (though don't think it will be an outbreak), and then a potentially big storm here end of the week. Finally the boredom is over.
  21. weatherwiz
    It will be interesting to see how things go in about 2-3 hours. Looks like the strongest overall lift is beginning to move overhead now. As this starts to depart east precipitation may begin to shut down quickly. Exception will be where there is enhancement from the inverted trough which could be from like northeast Mass down through Worcester area into northern CT.
  22. weatherwiz
    Steepest lapse rates moving overhead now with some moderate lift. Wouldn't be surprised to see some thundersnow soon
  23. weatherwiz
    Close to 1.5” in Springfield
  24. weatherwiz
    coming down nicely now in Springfield
  25. weatherwiz
    I think the majority of the dry air is a bit above the DGZ and there seems to be sufficient moisture within the DGZ so I don't think dry air was much of an issue in this case.
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