weatherwiz

Could see a few beefy cells across western Massachusetts and western Connecticut tomorrow afternoon. Going to probably see some flash flooding as well.

The way the past month has been who knows...may have had a downpour over his house all day

Good ole Hudson River Valley special Friday

Speaking of tropical forcing, I recently (maybe a month or so ago) did some breakdowns of tropical forcing during EL Nino winter's. I focused on Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies as that was the only product that had reanalysis data back to 1900. What I did was look at OLR Anomalies for each EL Nino event to see the different variations. I also used this diagram as guidance: During ENSO neutral conditions and La Nina's the tropical forcing is typically located across the far western Pacific and during EL Nino's this is typically displaced farther east, either towards the central Pacific or into the eastern Pacific. When I was making my OLR composites, I noticed there was a definite variation between each event where the tropical forcing was mostly located. Based on the composites and the above diagram, I split the forcing's into two categories 1. Neutral ENSO Forcing EL Nino Winter's (meaning the tropical forcing as evident by the OLR anomalies) was located within the western Pacific (more typical of an ENSO neutral) 2. EL Nino Forcing EL Nino Winter's (meaning the tropical forcing as evident by the OLR anomalies) was displaced farther east across the Pacific (more typical of an EL Nino episode). What I found interesting was there was actually slightly more EL Nino events with tropical forcing more prevalent across the western Pacific than there were EL Nino events were the tropical forcing was displaced east. Now obviously, the tropical forcing's more west were mostly weak and moderate events and the tropical forcing's displaced east were stronger events. Here is a breakdown of the years Neutral ENSO Forcing EL Nino Winter's: EL Nino Forcing EL Nino Winter's Now...I JUST realized I am an idiot. I am only going ahead with this post because I took the time to make it up and there is something still noteworthy. Anyways my breakdowns here are TOTAL GARBAGE. I was focusing on the WRONG area for the Neutral/LA Nina Forcing. That focus should be centered near 120°E I was focusing more on 150°E. Overlooking this stupidity, like Scott said the placement and location of tropical forcing is extremely important. It would be difficult to interpret with my incorrect composites here but there is a clear signal that the more east the tropical forcing is, the more likely the east is to have an above-average temperature winter and the more west the tropical forcing is, the more likely the east is to have a below-average temperature winter. What is also very clear I think is the configuration of anomalies associated with the Siberian High and Aleutian Low is also extremely, extremely critical, especially during winters where the Aleutian Low is of a stronger signal. Well going to go back and re-do these composites now that I realized the dumb mistake. I guess if any good came at making this post is I was able to catch this error. I have a print out of the first graphic showing the forcing's for each episode and I was looking at my ENSO OLR composites and something like jumped at me. So I quickly made some OR composites for La Nina episodes and realized I was assessing the wrong area of the equatorial Pacific Anyways I am definitely not throwing out the idea of a solid winter just because of "strength" concern.

Ahhh sun starting to break out here now and you can feel the temperature climbing and the air become thicker and heavier as evaporation ramps up and the trees serenade with their exquisite evapotranspiration. I want to feel the stickiness enlighten my skin.

I am almost inclined to side with the NAM because it looks like the whole frontal system becomes an occluded and weakening mess. With that, it still is certainly unstable and upper-level dynamics are pretty good so thinking we may at least some scattered downpours/thunder but may avoid more in the way of widespread downpours and thunder.

Rather drastic differences between NAM/GFS for Friday

Relative to what they've been. Feels like it anyway

Feels rather cool out. I miss the high humidity. Working outside but I may need to switch from shorts to jeans and a light spring jacket.

Aww crap. I forgot I had my car windows open. My car is soaked. My keaster is going to solidly wet on the 1h20m drive home. I may get hemorrhoids.

Nice! Winds got fairly gusty here in Branford. Don't really have much of an estimate but I want to say maybe 30-35 mph.

Major deluge now.

Nice little storm in Branford

I wonder if there is a waterspout with that cell headed towards Madison. Will fish getting sucked up show up on CC

I can hear thunder from cell over Long Island!!!

The high surface-based CAPE is helping parcels accelerate to the LCL and LFC, however, the weak mid-level lapse rates (mixed-layer CAPE) then yields a much slower parcel acceleration beyond the LFC. This is why we're seeing convection easily develop, but really struggle to become deep. The strong shear is helping with the organization.

I was going to go on a quick Poke walk but I'm afraid a bolt out of the blue will eliminate me

Moreso just have rain producers with maybe a decent amount of lightning. Any severe will be super localized.

eh not so sure. Seems like a very narrow area for storm development which should be focused west closer to the front/weak sfc trough. The better jet support actually lifts out through the day so there will be a pretty quick weakening trend east.

Lapse rates are putrid and we don't really have strong frontal forcing or shortwave forcing, but we do have enhanced upper-level divergence thanks to an unseasonably strong mlvl and ulvl jet and subsequently dynamics are pretty strong. Ultimately, we should see multiple thunderstorms develop and grow upscale into line segments. This will yield some training thunderstorms so flash flooding potential is quite elevated where thunderstorms occur. Localized damaging wind gusts are certainly possible within the strongest cores and when cores collapse. There is enough hail CAPE that some small hail is also possible. Should be some good lightning though with high elevated CAPE and decent hail CAPE.

I use my nose

Maybe I can leave work early and get to BDL if the HRRR is right

Yup reminds me of last Thursday

GFS overmixes and NAM undermixes (or whatever it is the NAM does)

Agreed, should be more west but wonder if activity persists long enough to get central areas into the mix.