weatherwiz

Yes, don't want to leave that out. Does look like they will be wedged a bit and then mix out once the front nears. But still think any wintry potential on the backside is overdone

It drives me nuts when there is a "storm potential" and it's blatantly obvious the threat is minimal-to-none but some people will try to defend the potential by saying, "but you never know what will happen"...that's such a BS phrase.

I'm not very sold on it right now. It still gets very mild out ahead of it. What looked to happen on the GFS was these subtle sfc waves that develop along the front and that could be one reason for the PTYPE alogirthms to spit out some blue. But I don't see much out ahead of the front which is going to prevent temperatures from rising quite a bit, even up north. Dewpoints too should surge well into the 40's.

There was someone who did that at one of the TV stations (not Ryan's) in CT a few months back. I think it was for that TS that ended up giving some impact to eastern Maine. They showed a wind gust map on a Monday afternoon for Saturday across CT which showed gusts like 50-60 mph. Whatever drives the hype I guess

Some see pretty colors on the wind maps and 925 or 850 and think that will equate down to the sfc. We all know how difficult it is to truly mix down winds in these setups. More often not that too, the stronger the winds in those levels, the stronger the inversion too. If mixing down those winds were easy here in these setups we wouldn't have any trees...or trees would probably grow to be 10' tall.

Agreed there...I mean for those who forecast and for that area it's a different ballgame but we're not seeing 60-70 mph gusts inland or region wide unless we get a helluva line of convection to plow through which I don't see happening

Certainly have to watch the Cape and Islands for some big wind gusts Sunday night into early Monday morning. GFS has a pretty hefty llvl jet at 925. Get sfc temps around 60 or just a tick over and there could be some 65-70 mph gust potential there.

ehhh I think that is overdone. The cold air looks to lag big time at the sfc and it's dry out aloft rather rapidly.

sure it's not paint?

a few flakes falling here

Yeah there is definitely sneaky potential for snow showers scattered about these next few days. So for anyone looking for flakes (whether it's first flakes or just to get in the mood) these next few days offers some opportunities.

It amazes me how some still don't understand these type of setups. We all know it's extremely difficult for these events to verify on the wind side. There is a clear cut differentiator in these type of events performing: 1) You need convection and strong convection so you need at least some degree of llvl instability 2) Steep lapse rates - This is probably by far the biggest discriminator in these events producing on the wind side. There is always an inversion in these setups - always. Even the weakest of inversions will limit winds from mixing to the sfc. Towards the coast wind potential is usually higher but I don't see big wind potential on a widespread level with this. Even with a forced low topped squall line...I don't think the instability will be there to aid in momentum transport.

yeah definitely wouldn't be surprised if a few CT towns had some flakes tomorrow.

NAM has some snow showers for at least western sections Thursday...though greater potential may be more NY and NE PA.

18z HRRR continues to look decent tomorrow out east for a very narrow area. A decent amount of 3km CAPE too. Could really rip locally somewhere.

Getting close to the time of day where Anthony drops in to tell us the EPS looks good

well for those who hate the early sunsets were a few days away from the earliest sunset of the year. Starting next week we make all so ever slow improvements for later sunsets. Bad news for those who hate the late sunrise...still another 6 weeks until the sun starts rising earlier.

I like where the ridge axis is located there.

root for GFS

the euro is quite strong with the low too...it's just slower than the GFS. Euro has 982mb 6z Mon

The differences between the Euro and GFS in terms of timing for Sunday's system are quite crazy.

Probably see a marginal risk for damaging wind gusts out in NY/PA for Sunday. Not a whole heck of a lot of instability but there should be a pretty solid looking forced line that develops right along the front.

I would take that...especially if we can pump the higher heights a bit farther west into Greenland

Verbatim, there would probably be a low topped line of convection with that front this upcoming weekend ahead of the cold front. There would likely be a pretty stout inversion though which would keep alot of the wind ay bay. Any wind would be very localized and within stronger pockets of convection. Sunday could be pretty gusty with steep llvl lapse rates and CAA.

Modeling is certainly much better than it used to be...I don't think there can be any argument about that. However, IMO I think the rate of improvement has definitely slowed some over the past 5-10 years. That s just my opinion though and I have nothing to really back that up. I'm sure all these model scores and graphs will say otherwise. As we all know, modeling and the atmosphere is extremely complex. For models to do what they do is beyond impressive. Ultimately, though I don't think models can be technically "wrong". The solution of a model is based on how the model is evolving the atmosphere and all the pieces. Now the model can be wrong in how everything evolves but that doesn't mean the output is wrong. In terms of forecasting, I think it really comes down to experience, knowledge of fundamental forecasting, and at least a basic understanding of atmospheric physics. Forecasting is just more than looking at models and interpreting the output. It always makes me cringe when people will say "models will change" or "nobody knows what models will do". Those who have a superior understanding of the physics can probably gather better insight into which model may perform better or why one model is struggling versus another. Expectations and society also play a big factor. Now, everyone wants pinpoint and detailed forecasts for a specific location 3-4-5+ days out. That is not realistic in many situations. Social media has led to irresponsibility sharing information and products (i.e. snow maps) and expectations and reality become distorted. You're totally right, there is no easy answer but it is a combination of so many different factors, but it is indeed an interesting discussion.