weatherwiz

In my inexperienced opinion, it seems like much of the wonky stuff is tied into interaction with the front/trough progressing across the Northeast tomorrow. Too me at least, that accounts for alot of the wiggles back and forth on OP guidance. While both the NAM and GFS sort of weaken the trough and de-amplify a bit, there are some disagreements into how quickly this happens and the extent and that could play a big roll in how far west Lee will get. If we see see towards the western envelope, I think it's something into extreme western Nova Scotia or the eye just west of the actual land. I don't think we will see a final solution any more west than this.

Today should be quite isolated and probably more of the quick hitting nature

I am going to lay out in the hammock Saturday with beer and let the stiff winds from Lee slowly rock me back and forth and play a lullaby on my phone so I gently fall asleep.

Saturday is going to certainly be a fall like day

What may actually hep hold back the flooding potential a bit tomorrow is this activity may be more on the progressive side. Localized flash flooding certainly is still likely, but the extent and severity could be held back some.

Some severe potential but flooding could be pretty bad.

Wednesday could be ugly

Yikes. Hope this is better by the morning https://x.com/dhtheweathernut/status/1701391599433839034?s=46&t=en2ngd1pOYZyWUScL5JbUA

I need a canoe

Downtown Springfield must be a mess

Getting the backside CGs now. Dog going crash with the loud booms.

Nigel would probably have a better shot than Lee…if anything because of it’s starting latitude

Power flickered!!!

Just saw a sick CG!!!!

I’m actually wondering if these are CGs. They’re super bright making it seem so but the thunder with the last several flashes (while on the louder side) isn’t as loud as I would think.

Nice CG explosion around me. Boom baby boom

Decent storm here. Some close strikes and loud thunder. Roads were already pounding. Drove back through from water on way back from cvs.

missed that post! I think we saw something similar with the storm that came up a few years back. Ended up making landfall somewhere along Long Island. I remember there were some aggressive calls (from myself included) for stronger winds and even a LF hurricane, but it was clear the slower speed over the colder waters was going to yield big weakening and structural changes

Whether people want them to happen or not is irrelevant because if it's going to happen it's going to happen...plain and simple. But for those who work in the field or follow this stuff for a passion, all you want to is prepare folks the best you can and stress life is more important than anything else.

Euro continuing with the tug back NW...now just a matter of how far it goes with it

The additional balloon launches make a bunch of sense. I mean there is an overall greater concern to this storm than just the backyards of New England.

Well if anything I guess what's becoming clearer is Lee will slow enough for the first front/trough not to capture it and kick it enough OTS to say there will be zero impact.

Excellent opening post. Cue the media hype now as the cone of uncertainty is now tickling parts of the region. NHC has Lee as a category 1 (80 mph) Saturday AM

Lee would largely miss those warmer waters (assuming anyways). Historically, to get a significant cane to make landfall up here you need it to be hauling as it would have less time to weaken between being off the Carolina coast and a landfall up here. A slower moving storm traversing these colder waters though will give the storm ample time to undergo internal structural changes and evolution from tropical to ET

Yes, great post. It's important to understand this in great depth.