weatherwiz

We don't really need a full-fledged Arctic airmass in place either. I mean how any of our biggies have come with a super cold Arctic airmass in place? Sure they have happened but IMO, if we have a deep Arctic airmass in place we're likely looking at either a suppressed pattern or an inactive pattern.

maybe related to mixing? The GFS tends to get overzealous with mixing but that is an interesting observation, I did not notice that. what's also interesting too is I feel like it's been much harder to get anomalous daytime departures on the colder side. Remember back this spring or maybe early summer we had some pretty anomalous cold llvl airmasses overhead but we were still barely netting negative departures at the sfc.

probably about as high as the pressure over SE Canada

The GFS looks cold enough to me in the long range

I think the GFS is being a bit too aggressive with the warmth that far north but it's certainly possible that could happen.

People want to see blizzards on OP runs at D12...if there is nothing being shown it's just winter cancel

I think everything is progressing nearly on schedule. I know Ray and I shared a lot of the same thoughts in our winter outlooks how we would see pattern evolution moving through December into January and everything seems to be on par. Everything seems to be progressing how you'd expect for a typical EL Nino, especially a stronger EL Nino. While our luck certainly isn't the best with stronger EL Nino's, we have had success with stronger episodes. But you can see that we're moving towards the emergence of the Aleutian Low. It also appears we should head into the direction of developing blocking. Everything is happening slow, but things are changing.

eh that was poorly worded. I was just looking at the charts though, didn't look at pattern. I should have said that there is strong agreement that the NAO becomes less positive moving through the end of the month and after a bit of a PNA spike, the PNA looks to become less positive as well.

The first week of January could be quite intriguing with the NAO looking to tank and the PNA becoming more neutral. Ensembles seem in pretty good agreement in how the NAO/PNA evolve moving through the end of the month.

The two worst investments I've made the past few years 1) A snow shovel - my girlfriend is from Florida and moved up here in like 2017. She had no idea there were shovels specific for snow and used a garden shovel. 2) Mac Jones jersey Can I return both?

Give me a massive January and February, but by March I'm ready for deep spring and summer. I want 60's, 70's and by April give me the 80's and by May it's time for severe weather.

The people who hate Brad Marchand

Tomorrow and tomorrow night are going to be chilly and blustery.

I don't know what it is about tonight but I'm feeling good. Real good. I'm feeling great about winter and in general. Maybe it's finally being over covid and having some energy...I'm actually drinking a second beer during the Bruins game. For the past month I didn't even finish a full one. But it has me feeling good and it has me feeling good looking at the long-range. I hope Santa leaves the trolls crushed coal...they aren't even deserving of a lump of coal. Being subjected to 5 posts and wasting it trolling the only torches they'll be getting in January is when they open their ovens.

My knowledge of the MJO is still pretty garbage so my thoughts here are more me thinking in my head to understand, but too me it seems like these slow changes we're seeing within guidance are very closely related to MJO progression being modeled. IMO, the MJO almost certainly will eventually move into more favorable phases. People can say whatever about how these pattern changes keep getting pushed back and use that as a means to say winter suck but that is just not meteorologically correct. I understand the MJO is not a driver and more of a modulator so I'm not saying the MJO will be driving the pattern but I think it's been pretty apparent how the MJO has modulated the pattern and how it will do so moving forward. People want to scream Dec had no chance b/c of typical strong EL Nino climo...well the same people (the trolls) better start mentioning the fact how as we move through EL Nino winters there is a tendency to have a better pattern in the NPAC and increased potential for blocking. We're beginning to see the slow trends towards the more favorable PAC and the MJO is slowly propagating into a more favorable phase pattern. I am fairly confident we're going to get very busy. Now I can't guarantee that means everyone sees snow or we don't have mixing to deal with but there will be people who cash in.

Hope you get it back soon

looks like it was fake news. refreshed a few times and it went up to 319K

woah did Maine just got from 330K w/o power to 76K or is that an error.

There is a strong fetish to see major blizzard's modeled 10+ days out and if models don't show that it's winter cancel. How many of our big snowstorms really didn't come into the picture until like 4-5 days out? I know Will made a post a while back that models have certainly gotten better and to the point where we can give D10 threats some credibility but so many storms really aren't catching eyes until 4-5 days.

This is fantastic, thank you! Wish this came up in my google search.

Do archived MJO phase diagrams exist? I'm curious to know if there are phase diagrams dating back to 1979 where you can see MJO wave progression throughout the year.

I don't work in energy so I don't know what it's like "behind the scenes" but too me, long-range is about understand pattern evolution and understanding how certain pattern regimes influence week-to-week or day-to-day sensible weather. At least on the boards and social media for anyone who loves weather, I think the premise of long-range forecasting is misunderstood and used incorrectly. Most people who love weather love snow, that isn't a secret. So as we get closer to winter everyone is focusing on long-range and wants to know whether it will snow in their backyard...that is all everyone cares about. This isn't the point of long-range forecasting. If people are going to "verify" model performance and patterns based on what happens in their backyards, well that is on them. I may be incorrect in this, but I would wager that the skill in forecasting temperatures (anomalies) weeks to even a month or two out is probably higher than most would think. Forecasting anything outside of this variable is going to greatly impact accuracy and increase variability. Even in a "favorable" pattern, many pieces still have to fall in place to produce a storm (or well just say snow because that is what everyone wants). How shortwaves are traversing the pattern, how they evolve, and how they interact are somewhat correlated to the actual pattern, but timing/speed is more related to other factors. There is more to verification and scores and success than whether someone gets snow in their backyard.

meant to say what you would expect to see during the transition from phase 1 to 2 and that is exactly what is shown with the GFS/CMC look @brooklynwx99 just posted.

they barely have skill to forecast temperatures the following day