weatherwiz

Very interesting, thanks for that link! This is what I was using for SOI data. https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/soi/soi_3dp.dat

In terms of the first bolded there is nothing that is screaming an above-average winter temperature wise across the CONUS. In terms of the second bolded, SSW episodes don't just correlate to what happens on our side of the hemisphere. There have been plenty of SSW events that have had zero impact on our side of the hemisphere.

I've posted this one the New England side (probably should have been more active in here since this is where the discussion is at) but I am quite intrigued to see if we see a shift in the tropical forcing moving through winter, however, there are no signs of that happening. At least according to my breakdowns (and this is just my breakdown meaning it doesn't mean it is correct and it's open to interpretation) there was only one true moderate EL Nino event in which the tropical forcing was west of the dateline for the winter and that was 1925-1926. There has never been a strong EL Nino with tropical forcing west of the dateline. This doesn't mean it can't happen it just hasn't happened yet. For a moderate or I guess you could say borderline strong EL Nino, the SOI isn't really reflective yet (though haven't seen the Oct value yet) and the MEI, at least to me, indicates the ocean-atmosphere is not coupled yet and I guess we see that as well with the AAM (which I'm trying to find the plot I saw posted in this thread earlier. When I was working on my winter outlook and going through previous EL Nino events and looking at strength, structure, and incorporating PDO, PNA, QBO, etc...there were alot of mixed signals but what I found to be the most significant on the overall look of winter was 1. Aleutian Low - strength, structure, and where it was located 2. Arctic domain I think this is a winter where the Arctic will be a significant driver in the pattern over North America. Below is a 500mb composite for all EL Nino winters in which the tropical forcing was west of the dateline. I understand there are great uncertainties with OLR data prior to the 1980's or so.

It was actually disappointing we didn't get any fall severe weather threats this year. Actually I can't even remember the last time we have a severe setup...probably like August (gross).

What we have to watch for moving towards the end of the month into December are sneaky threats. I doubt we'll see any significant storm signals several-plus days out, however, there may be hints within the indices which could provide some clarity into these periods.

I love this look. This evolution is really textbook EL Nino and especially textbook for Nino's pre 1980. I know there has been a lot of work done with Modoki EL Nino's and I have read some papers, but I still want to explore this all further because it is quite intriguing how much EL Nino evolution has changed since the early 1980's. Is it solely due to the emergence of Modoki EL Nino's which have become more common? It's possible, but I don't think it's a sole driver.

Was nice out earlier had sun off and on but was nice when it was out

I did weigh tropical forcing, but it wasn't a significant influence in my forecast. My goal coming into this was to not be heavily invested into the analog approach but take more of a hybrid approach. I was looking at the following (the order listed below is not order of importance or significance just a general listing) 1. ENSO strength 2. ENSO evolution (are we headed towards modoki? has EL Nino peaked? will it strengthen) 3. SOI/MEI 4. PDO evolution 5. QBO evolution 6. Tropical Forcing What I did was these 6 was work to eliminate certain EL Nino solutions. I was looking for historical EL Nino events which sort of fit the mold with how everything listed above was evolving. What I found difficult with the tropical forcing aspect was, the dataset for tropical forcing west of the dateline with moderate or stronger EL Nino's is virtually non-existent - that doesn't mean this can't happen, just means it hasn't happened yet. The good news is, for the EL Nino events in which the tropical forcing was west of the dateline, there seemed to be a pretty high correlation to more troughing across the Northeast region. However, that signal weakens with some of the more recent EL Nino events and this could be tied into the emergences of modoki events. Also, at least in terms of ONI and SST's within the ENSO region, the structure of the tropical forcing isn't what you would see for a stronger EL Nino event. Many of the stronger events the degree of convection seems to be much more widespread across the equatorial Pacific while now its much more focused over a smaller area. Ultimately, I think it's going to be how the Aleutian Low materializes and how the Arctic materializes which are going to be the biggest drivers overall. Now I'm sure tropical forcing probably plays a role in this but the question is, how significant of a role?

sweet, going to mark this on the calendar now

It's something like this that could really open the window for a winter threat in that time frame. I suspect (at least through December) we will see chaos within the PNA domain which will result in bursts of +PNA and then into -PNA. This would keep things active and hopefully we can load some cold in with maybe some EPO support.

I don't think it's just using models alone...maybe some are but much of it has to do with an understanding of the climatology behind EL Nino's along with how things are currently progressing. As Will highlighted in a few separate posts, it is typical for EL Nino December's to be on the warmer side but like he said that is not always the case. So what you want to do is understand why some EL Nino Decembers were warm and why some were cold. Will also highlighted last night the GOA vortex perhaps becoming established. This is something that could favor warmer as well, but this is dependent on where it is positioned, the structure, and even what's happening within the Arctic. I don't think anyone is guaranteeing a warm December, but climo should be respected until we are proven otherwise.

I think a lot too plays on where the core anomalies with the GOA are located. If we can keep those west, either over the Aleutians or just west and can get some Arctic support we may be able to avoid a torch here and at least see something that could favor interior. The one thing I at least like is I don’t think we are going to get porked at any point by the Arctic. There will be occasions where the PAC pork’s us but I think the evolution of the PAC through the winter will eventually be in our favor. I am tooting 57-58 hard

Can't hate the 50/50 low there. Shift that ridge axis in the west slightly farther east and I'll throw some bets on the table

I hope not. I'm tired of shitty springs and it not getting hot until July and we get like 7 weeks of summer. After March 15 I'm ready for 70's and by April 15 give me 80's, May give me 90's and by June pound me with 100's. Oh and high humidity by April too.

I'm sure Isaac Newton would have much preferred a pine cone fall on his head than an apple.

That synopsis matches extremely well with how that winter progressed. You could see the pattern evolving for January would favor the interior and then come February favored more towards the coast/Cape. Actually looking at this season a bit deeper I probably shouldn't have been so quick to write it off as an analog

If we see a February with a rather robust block I would not be surprised to see that carry deeper into March. I'd have to look back since I'm doing this from memory right now, but I feel like some of our biggest late season blocks seem to carry over into the spring months and that's when we get our brutal springs.

57-58 was one of the years I heavily skewed towards in my winter outlook. 65-66 was in one of my lists but I eliminated that as it was near super strong category (or into). How was 86-87 in terms of snowfall? I had that as a wild card analog but I felt this winter would see more blocking than that winter.

But yeah definitely a several day mild stretch this weekend into Tuesday. I could see some spots Tuesday pushing 65-72.

I think we will get an Aleutian Low to form at some point...not just because of it's climo with EL Nino but other factors too such as the trend with the PDO. We ay see instances where the Aleutian Low weakens but if we can get a nice Aleutian Low established that could help enhance potential for blocking as well. Interesting times ahead.

This is totally weenie range and just the GFS but you have to love it's evolution with respect to the northern Pacific and its response across the Arctic domain. One great note to see is not a strong PV (at least in terms of tropospheric PV). This is one reason I'm big on blocking scenarios this upcoming winter because with a rather robust EQBO already in place, it might be very difficult for the PV to become established and strengthen as we move through the Fall and into the early winter. Anyways, we see plenty of little PV lobes get dip south at times and what I really like are these height anomalies within the Arctic...core of the anomalies are right within the Arctic domain around the North Pole region and you can see the ridging building SE to NW into Greenland. We could get some periods of rather robust -AO/-NAO combo and when you throw in transitioning PNA's...big potential could loom early in the season. I do think we could be active early on then we may get a bit of a lull and boredom for a few weeks (which could freak some people out) but that is part of another cycle/transition, (or pattern reload). After that reload if blocking can become established and the norm it could be quite fun.

wow did it clear out quickly here. It was cloudy like 10 min ago and I just look outside and it's predominately blue sky (looking east).

Looks like we will get some mild days upcoming. But the way things are headed I think the second half of November is going to be quite stormy. At least to me, the look going through November is vastly different from the past two years. Seems like we'll favor phasing and/or cyclogenesis much closer to the coast moving into the second half of November...past few winters it's been predominately towards the OV region.

Sun angle is about as overrated as the Edmonton Oilers

I like this look...matches well with how I think DJFM average out for this upcoming winter.