weatherwiz

Forget March coming in like a lion, it's coming in like the big, bad, Wolf and we're all cooped up in Little Red Ridding Hood's grandmothers house and the house is about to get blown away.

It certainly could be quite windy, even outside of convection.

Could have potential for a line of thunderstorms to move through next Thursday. Instability won't be anything noteworthy but that's some intense dynamics with a large warm sector characterized by dewpoints >50 with steep lapse rates. I am sniffing some strong convection potential.

Doing my annual two weeks for storm chasing June 1 - June 15. Hopefully we can get some high risks into the Northeast during that period...or at least into IL/IN/OH. Farthest west my friend and I have ever gone is like central PA. Been willing to go farther these last 3-4 years but there's been NOTHING. I've always wanted to do the Plains but I am not as enthused about that anymore. Not with all these lunatics' who think that just because they're storm chasing means the rules of the road don't apply to them. then having to deal with chaser convergence. Also, the thought of spending a day or two of driving...gross. I do enough driving as it is and with my back, being in a car longer than a few hours makes bad things happen.

It probably will materialize...the 3rd and 4th week of March and we get to bash our heads in with 35F rainstorms, clouds, and stiff NE winds

My girlfriend has a treadmill in the basement too which I want to start using. Just need motivation. I am curious to see if running on the treadmill will count towards steps in Pokemon Go. If so, that will be my motivation and I can hatch eggs like a chicken.

my only cardio is running from my car to the package store when its cold out.

I could never understand how people do this. I kind of wish I could. Several years ago I used to work 6-3 and would wake up 4:15 AM. While part of me loved it, it was killing me. I would have zero energy after and want to do nothing. I was with my ex and I felt terrible b/c I would be with her on weekends and Friday night I would be so dead and ready for bed by 7-8. Even now a few days of the week I am up at 5:15 and I'm drained by the afternoon. Even if I go to bed at a decent time...I wake up the next morning more tired than I went to bed. Wish there was a fix for that.

I almost think its kind of pointless to make such specific calls regarding temperatures with long-range forecasts (for example, saying something like +1 to +3 or -2 to -3) just because of how crazy the anomalous warmth has been overall. We've seen some months over the past few decades of anomalies +5...+6...and even higher. There is absolutely zero way anyone could ever forecast something that anomalous in advance. Let's say someone went with a +2 to +4 for a month, but it turned out to be +6 or +7...from the number alone that forecast doesn't look "great" but how the heck would anyone go something as extreme as +6 or +7? Now just saying "above-average" like I did in my outlook isn't great either...that's kind of a "cheap way" out but getting specific with numbers and ranges for something like seasonal can be very hairy.

Yup, maddening how we couldn't get a GoA low established. Looking at the January/February pattern, you can kind of visualize how different things would have looked had there been a GoA low. Heights across the west would have probably been more neutral and that ridging in Canada may have been pushed back a bit with those below-average heights out in the Atlantic a bit closer. This alone would have had an impact on the storm track. Of course, there is much more it to this. If there was a GoA vortex then it would have been a question of size, strength, structure, placement, etc.

Yup, well said. The next level of defense would probably be mentioning super-strong events but even that doesn't hold significant merit. If forecasting seasonal snowfall was as easy as "this winter will suck b/c of strong EL Nino" or "this winter will rock b/c of weak La Nina"...well everyone would do snowfall forecasts and everyone would be right

That would be my guess as well, similar to the weak La Nina example I posted yesterday regarding 1995-1996.

Did the 5 ppd people's posts reset yet? I am curious on the answer to this

NAM tries to sneak in some precip on the Cape early Thursday AM with that offshore low

Ultimately, the correlation between ENSO and seasonal snowfall here is not very strong. And when I say that, I mean it is not strong enough to just make a definitive statement. While snowfall can be correlated to certain patterns a bit more strongly, at the end of the day, it is all about how the pieces are moving and evolving within the pattern and how that pattern may be evolving. When a pattern regime sets in, two things can happen: 1) If that pattern sucks, then you're in for a long stretch 2) If the pattern sets up perfectly, you're going to cash in and this is what happens during our prolific stretches. We can get big winters in EL Nino, La Nina, weak events, moderate events, strong events, we can get crap winters in any of these as well. We can get good snows with a +NAO and we can get them with a -NAO. The most important thing above all, is what is happening within the pattern, not necessarily the pattern itself.

I'll throw in an answer to that. I think some like to use one season or one example as a reason for justification. Just like 10-15 years ago there was the stigma that weak La Nina's were the king because of 1995-1996.

Since I saw it was mentioned again a few pages back, Can someone please explain to me where the stigma comes from that a strong EL Nino guarantees a crap winter in terms of snowfall. And yes, some have guaranteed that because every now and then you have people crawl out from under the bed saying, "I know it was going to suck because of strong EL Nino".

It's definitely much more favorable up your way. These scenarios of lows developing along an advancing front don't work out too often down this way, unless the low development happens to be south of our area.

An approaching cold front with a developing wave along it. Looks like enough cold air may remain wedged to yield potential for accumulating snow across the interior high terrain with a chilly rain elsewhere.

Yeah not a fun day. Went outside just to go shopping and it wasn't fun. If it wasn't windy it wouldn't have been bad.

No, models did not fail anything. This has been said 1,234,564,349,349,046,903,529,034,695,239,528,585,258,457,474,868,389,393 on the board over the years but just because a pattern looks good DOES NOT MEAN IT WILL PRODUCE. If people stopped looking and using the piece of no good garbage trash snow maps and tossing the around like they have any merit, weight, or indicate anything maybe this wouldn't be a problem. Going around saying models suck or models failed because the 384 hour snow maps didn't verify is pure unscientific trash. This also have been sated 1,234,568,635,444,556,900,201,4567,000,0939 times over the years but when looking long-range it goes like this 1) Identify the pattern 2) Identify moving pieces within the pattern and how they will evolve when inside the window of a threat. But all this crap keeps going over some people's heads because they look at the piece of garbage snow maps and then the horses have left the gate and they didn't even take their morning poop.

Looks pretty interesting around the Sacramento Valley area in California tomorrow. Could be some nasty supercells (for CA standards).

I hope we get sustained 70's and 80's in April/May with humidity so it stays warm at night and I can sit outside and watch Bruins playoff games with just a jersey on.

sounds like voodoo