weatherwiz

Oh man look at this from the 12z NAM for DSM this evening. Those CAPE numbers are ridiculous. 1450 Hail CAPE...WOOOOOOWWWWWW

we should bake, especially with the westerly sfc flow and should have ample sun

CAPE is great but means nothing without a robust enough trigger! Unfortunately, the largest CAPE days generally occur when there is a lack of forcing/trigger. CAPE values that high aren't actually uncommon in those parts but it gains more attention when you have a forcing mechanism.

Thursday though could feature potential for a few tornadoes across southern CT/Long Island/RI/Cape Cod

That NAM has a narrow corridor of 5000-6000 J of MLCape with DCAPE values ~1500+ J....that's absurd. There's going to be some significant wind damage

We may get nada in SNE Wednesday...storms for NNE and then southwest of us. After that weak front passes through tomorrow I'm not even sure we truly warm sector on Wednesday. You may have a weak warm front lifting north but the true or secondary warm front never even gets into the region.

Thanks! Always had wondered that, this makes a lot of sense.

Right now biggest question is how much instability will materialize. I would expect at least scattered thunderstorms to develop early-to-mid afternoon and progress southeast quickly through the late afternoon. Shear is enough to warrant the potential for thunderstorms to organize into a line. Shear is also enough to yield a low probability for a tornado along the warm front (which will be up around that area). I'd say 3-7 PM is the time frame for storms...that can probably even be narrowed down a bit more tomorrow too.

that feature is very evident. Assessing real time observations is a lot of fun and something I'm trying to do much more frequently and want to do as we move through the winter. Sometimes its so easy to get caught up and looking at models and complaining about the lack of consistency between models or figuring out which model has the better handle and forgetting there is a great way to answer these questions...compare initialization and real-time observations over the next 6-12 hours to guidance and that will help answer these questions. A few weeks ago I remember watching water vapor for quite some time. The weather pattern featured a trough digging into the west with the jet stream poleward into the Inter-mountain West. So you had a dry punch entering the desert Southwest and as that air ascended over the Inter-mountains cloud and convection forming. And with the ridge across the south you had the jet axis becoming more zonal into the central states so as that air descended the Rockies the convection/clouds dissipated...it was great/cool watching science work in real time.

Do you think the "launch pad" aspect of temperatures overrated? I mean wouldn't the degree of mixing and the lapse rate hold the most weight?

I would watch for tonight to perhaps end up a bit farther south than what guidance has...probably following along the southern edge of where the SPC has the enhanced so I would watch this closely. I know there is only the marginal right now for tomorrow but could be another big night. May not see another moderate but wouldn't be surprised if an enhanced risk was eventually thrown out there once the details become clearer.

the SPC does mention derecho...nice

Is that some sort of very weak backdoor that rolls through tomorrow evening? Or maybe just a weakening front that probably lifts north a bit Wednesday as a warm front.

I'd have very low confidence in the end of the week. How all this convective potential evolves from the upper-Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley is going to play a significant factor in how this evolves for us.

MAV 97 for BOS tomorrow, MET 92, and NBM 95. A quick look yields that BOS certainly has a shot for 97 tomorrow...would not be shocked at a 98

Can't wait to we start getting sunshine and crank up the sweatiness.

Could be a solid concentrated swath of wind damage though with distance criteria like 400 or 450 miles it may fall short of the definition for a derecho.

For a second I thought this was smoke this morning then realized its fog.

Tropics are dead for a while

Oh of course though last year was the first time in my life I didn’t stay up to watch 10:00 or 10:30 games…well I did the first few. But there were also several games I packed it in early. Nothing will ever beat a few years ago, no matter how disappointing blowing the 3-1 series lead was. That regular season was incredible. Every game was enjoyable

I sure as hell hope winter is good this year because the Patriots will probably be mediocre, Bruins probably going to tank for a shot at McKenna and Celtics probably a bottom playoff team. There will be nothing to take the mind off a shitty winter if we get another.

Wasn’t the observation site situated at a different location in 1983?

Noticed a lot of aggression today

People seemed miserable today with the super low dews.

1.5mb? Did he take the pic with the James Webb?