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Everything posted by weatherwiz

  1. Looks like a pretty big heat flux is set to occur towards the end of the GFS run but positioned over Europe. This site is incredible...only problem is I don't understand how to interpret many of these tools lol. I think the increasing heat flux corresponds to sudden rises in temp
  2. Yeah I heard some horrid stories from that..took some people like 4-5 hours to get home...forget that. I think that was the same storm one of the news stations had a car in front of them drilled by some out of control idiot in a pick-up truck.
  3. yup that was the date...and you're not wrong on that I think they got slammed even worse even down in northern NJ. I don't think though that setup was anything like this.
  4. This sort of reminds me of a scenario we had maybe early last winter or the winter before...I don't remember if the set-up was as similar, but this concept applied and it worked out very well. There was that crazy strip that went through southern CT and caused a commute nightmare.
  5. Is MT a thing with the Appalachian Mountains? Anyways I feel pretty good that the Euro is sniffing this out. The theme for the past few weeks (maybe longer) has been for trough amplification along the Great Lakes...perhaps as a response to the low MT/AAM state we've been in? With that trough developing east of the Rockies through the week that should result in more -MT/AAM. November going to be a big winter month
  6. yeah I'm not very happy about this. If we have to go through another winter of these horrific outbreaks I'm going to scream. 850 temps around mid-month like -15C WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYY
  7. would be a great start to winter...and hopefully signs of an excellent trend for us
  8. That's an extremely tight thermal gradient...could help enhance an extremely narrow axis of some pretty heavy snow depending on how this materializes. Maybe room for some low-end warning criteria along a narrow strip.
  9. With all the snow events which have occurred within the CONUS since the September snows in MT the GFS has gone completely overboard with totals...on a widespread scale. People are going to start freaking out when the GFS is showing 15-20'' of snow at D12...on a weak little wave along a front...then when it doesn't verify all the bust posts get to come out.
  10. The GFS is going to be total trash this winter...won't even be worth looking at or posting about. Unfortunately, the GFS is going to cause the social media world to go nuts.
  11. The difference in placement of the high pressure between the Euro and GFS for the end of the week is quite significant. I'm sure that has to have an influence on how things evolve in the Thursday-Friday time frame.
  12. I wish we could do weekends like we used to. I vote for the 23rd.
  13. This event and the event a few weeks ago should not be compared in the slightest. Completely different animals and processes involved.
  14. A couple things to consider too 1) Far less trees on the trees this storm than last 2) Wind direction...southwesterly/southerly winds don't typically tend to produce big damage/power outages. (I think last storm was more SE winds then the switch to NW behind the front)
  15. I wonder if you can make the case for a serial derecho here. Lack of any 65+ knot reports may preclude this designation
  16. Right at the very beginning (Wish I got the whole thing...was going for maybe 20 seconds? I heard sparking and glowing so I looked out the window but by the fine I got up and got to video it was stopping)
  17. Power flash outside my window!!! Tried to catch it on video. Think I got the tail end
  18. Wow...trees are swaying like crazy outside. Another like 10-15 mph and some of these may start snapping
  19. They are about to get rocked at Newark. winds are pretty wild here. Saw BDL gusted to 42 knots recently