I think we're at a stage where models are going to diverge and fall apart and once we get to 12z tomorrow we start to see a consensus towards a bit hit. And that's not just me being a weenie. It will start with the NAM and we'll see the typical NAM jokes and then guidance starts to trickle. Not uncommon in these bigger ceiling type events.
Ughh I typed this and it went away
but one underrated aspect of this that will have to be discussed is thundersnow potential. Some soundings are quite unstable through the DGZ…you get intense lift through that and you’re getting 3-4” per hour rates somewhere. And ratios will be better then 10:1
FWIW, these snow maps are the reason why last night was overblown. That entire system was completely over forecast from the upper-Midwest, northern Ohio Valley, and here. At what point…when will it happen…that people realize they’re TRASH
My girlfriend moved up here from Florida in 2018 and that’s where the dog/cat are from. This could be the biggest storm the dog has seen…in looking forward to it b/c he does not like snow. I can’t wait to see his face when I let him out to go potty. He’s going to be pissed we can’t play outside though.
Thank you!
Was doing a blog post and wanted to show something. But realized I could use the EPS
I know we're getting out of ensemble range but good to use to illustrate some thoughts.
Looks like the GFS is digging slightly deeper with the northern stream. This is probably going to crush the Berkshires down into northwest Connecticut.
This is probably going to be my biggest fear with this system and something that is going to make forecasting totals extremely difficult. Double band structure. Maybe there could be a scenario where the two converge.