calculus1
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Everything posted by calculus1
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There are so many things that can make or break an event. 2-m temperature is just one of them. However, monthly average temperature does not necessarily have any effect on whether or not someone gets snow. While highly unlikely, we could finish 0.5 degrees cooler than normal for the entire month by simply being 0.5 degree above normal on 27 days in February and 27.5 degrees below normal on the one other day. I think we'd all just give up at that point, though!
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As awesome as all that blue looks, it only corresponds to -0.6 to -0.8 colder than average in North and South Carolina. (I believe those are degrees Celsius rather than Fahrenheit...but still.)
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I have to disagree. I'll take my 60s and 70s in any which way I can get them, rain or shine. I actually kind of like the gloomy, overcast, drizzly days from time to time. Additionally, I would quite willingly forgo fall (though I would miss it), if I could dive right in to a cold and snowy winter in October.
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I ended up with 4.99 inches of rainfall for Friday through this morning. (Perhaps I'll get one more one hundredth of an inch of rainfall later today to bring it to an even 5 inches.) So, the truly epic rainfall amounts showing up on several runs of both the GFS and ECMWF for my area never materialized. I'm good with that. Unfortunately, those to my south and east seemed to pick up the extra rainfall that I didn't get. What a horrible disaster this is for SE NC and NE SC.
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NWS GSP is upping the totals again for the NW piedmont:
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Ha! I love the guys casually walking in the background as he pretends to be blown over. Nice find!
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But the 18Z 3K NAM only goes through 06Z Monday. More rainfall should fall after that point.
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The afternoon update has reduced those storm-total precipitation forecasts in the NW piedmont of NC:
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Latest storm total rainfall forecast from NWS GSP for their forecast area. So, far, I have 0.00 inch.
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^I wonder if the color-coding in Wake county is a function of greater population density rather than worse conditions. If people live closer together in Wake County than, say, Johnston County, then the same geographically-sized area in Wake would affect many more people than that same-sized area would in Johnston. However, the red shading for Carteret County probably means that literally everyone (~70K people) is without power there.
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Check for more here: https://www.duke-energy.com/outages/current-outages
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You guys must really like your milk, then. I think I can do without for a few days, if needed. I'd rather load up on other beverages and snacks instead of bread and milk. I've never understood the fascination with these two products for winter storm prep either. Hurricane prepping with these seems even more nonsensical.
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Why would a person by milk prior to experiencing the effects of a hurricane? If the power goes out, the milk will spoil.
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Brad P Update for his viewing area, in particular:
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The 8:00 AM update does appear to have switched the NHC track to a more westerly than southerly track after landfall.
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The intensity forecast has really diminished significantly. No sign of the "M" designation near the coast anymore. Current wind speed has dropped once again too. Down to 110 mph.
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Well, landfall might be a touch north, but the overall track of the storm after landfall continues to head further and further south.
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No, the path keeps heading south overall:
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5PM Update (Edited):
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11 AM cone and specs:
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That is crazy! For perspective, that wave is approximately as tall as this building. Imagine standing at the base of this building and seeing a wave that tall approach you.
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11PM update from NHC:
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2018 Mountains and Foothills Spring/Summer thread
calculus1 replied to FlatLander48's topic in Southeastern States
I just don't get this. I understand the mountains may have flooding problems due to heavy rainfall, but it's not going to arrive until Saturday or Sunday up there. Why cancel classes for Thursday and Friday? -
The 06Z HWRF has Florence coming ashore near Wilmington at 09Z on Friday morning. The center of circulation is then virtually stationary for almost 24 hours, just slowly drifting westward. 24 hours after that (09Z on Sunday), the center of circulation is just SW of Charlotte as it continues to meander to the west, all the while dropping copious amounts of rainfall across North and South Carolina. Wowza!
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New advisory cone:
