OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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You can see right through that.
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Yes, it's the mid to upper level cloud cover seeding the lower. The mechanism is that the lower cloud may not generate snow or a lot of snow on its own (generally warmer temps lacking ice nuclei activation). So when an ice crystal is introduced from above it activates the lower cloud to form ice crystals, and the rest is Scooter running around his yard flapping in the breeze.
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It likely would've snowed with OES anyway, but with the mid level stuff dropping into the lower level OES you're just going to generate a ton more snowflakes.
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Hoist the warnings.
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When I left for work I was up to 2... tenths.
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If you want it, you can have it. 1 3/4SM is about as low as that stuff is going right now. Mood flakes are for the holidays.
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Like some really thin meat, maybe a prosciutto?
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"A nude ferry passenger was arrested at Oak Bluffs this afternoon..."
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Yeah they have trackman in the bays and I want to go through the whole process for shafts, lie, etc. I've only ever gone off the rack before and this could be the last new set for another 15 years so better make it count. I've heard the 790s really can make the ball jump, so gaining a club would be huge for my game.
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WeatherBell cross-sections has data in 50 mb increments, because there's a "bullseye" there. It's obviously not interpolating a warmer temp between a colder 850 and 700 mb.
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Gotta watch that 850-700mb layer. Euro is a little sneaky around 800 mb.
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Had an opportunity for 25% off TaylorMade clubs and went ahead and got myself an early Father's Day present. First new set of clubs in 13 years. P790s. I already talked to the local fitter and they'll take the off the rack set as long as they aren't used and fit me to 790s and just swap the sets.
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Net pain. I mean gain.
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Same Senate. Call your reps! I'm on board for mesonets for all!
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And we're actually quite terrible at black ice forecasting. Super high false alarm rate given the amount of times it's mentioned in a forecast. I would love to have more road sensors but we barely have enough funding to fix our current data sources. I'm not holding out much hope for that changing anytime soon.
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Nearly impossible to predict how frozen or freezing precip is going to react on roads. All depends on how they are treated. And the predictability horizon for something like the FWD accident is pretty small. I think once you know it's freezing on roads you gotta hammer something out the door to keep more people from getting on the streets.
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There's a high branching in there, and there's not really room to run north with that big TPV lobe hanging out there. I think it's interesting that guidance is subtly trying to build the high in Quebec Tuesday morning despite the surface ridge trying to retreat before that time.
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GFS wants the 850 low over Phin's fanny. The whole set up fits the New England ice climo pretty well.
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This one definitely has a look for prolonged icing. It's not really a pattern to send the warm front screaming to CYUL. That helps to keep the forcing nearby and fight off the tendency to turn to WAA drizzle.
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You can almost envision a scenario where KTOL sits at 33 and rain because it's so torchy aloft.
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Big, big caveat is that all these ice forecasts are going to be flat surface accumulation (which is typically about 75% of QPF). That's how HQ wants us doing it now, even though anecdotally the Northeast has been radial forecasts. I suspect until we can iron out a new criteria for warnings, that's going to lead to some eye popping forecasts for fairly "routine" ice storm amounts.
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Just as an FYI for people out there, that product doesn't represent freezing rain the same way a clown map represents snow. It's just the amount of liquid QPF that falls as freezing rain according to the model (in this case Euro). So you would have to do some back of the envelope calculations to get accretion (~75% for flat surface and 28% for radial).
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It's interesting. Going to have to keep an eye on saturation though. Could just be a bunch of snizzle or drizzle.
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Days and days?
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242 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... It's happened before.
