OceanStWx

Played my first 18 holes in nearly a year this morning. Pleasantly surprised with an 85. I was grinding out there, very few fairways hit (not far off the short stuff but enough) and very few GIR.

Can you see the green line if you step outside?

GYX after dark.

I'm going to blame it on the baby at home. I missed half the months rain on leave.

I keep forgetting to work that into an AFD.

That's some July up to thy knickers.

Well science is rarely settled law. It shouldn't be surprising that guidance changes as more information becomes available. I personally operated under the assumption that if it was possible that I could catch COVID despite being vaccinated (I could be the lucky 5% or whatever) that I could also spread it to my kids, so I never stopped wearing my mask in indoor public settings. I do however think that the unvaccinated population is driving the majority of the caseload right now. The virus finds more "dead ends" in vaccinated people than viable infections, so I think it's a stretch to say they are drivers vs maybe being a piece of outbreaks. Maybe it burns itself out quickly like India but it could also be more like the UK that has kind of plateaued again.

I mean P-Town was an ideal case for COVID spread, and the vaccines worked like you would want them to by preventing severe cases and essentially letting that outbreak fizzle out after the initial case load. In the UK I see reporting that 60% of cases were unvaccinated, but the remaining 40% many of them had only one shot (because they prioritized more partial vaccinations) which we know reduces vaccine efficacy. I'm also not sure what data there is that vaccinated people are spreading delta at a "fairly high rate". I think data is mixed at best on that right now. I think it's fairly intuitive that a symptomatic vaccinated person could spread COVID, but there are still questions about how long they are contagious and how efficient they are at spreading it. There are likely more breakthrough infections than we think going on, but it's wild to believe that vaccinated individuals are driving even an equal amount of cases right now.

Even with the old normals PWM would've pulled a -1.7 for the month. Heavy, heavy yore.

That's not exactly true. Are there breakthrough cases going on right now? Of course, the vaccines only tested at 95% effective. So when you see that breakthrough cases still show over 90% efficacy it's totally within the bounds of what we should expect. The VAST majority of infections right now are among the unvaccinated.

It was the wind chill that got you today. I would like to enjoy my fire pit from time to time, so 80 degrees at midnight is no fun.

Meh, more like he's being recalled because the law is 12% of the voters from the last election held (~1.5 million people). They got 17% to sign the recall. So it's a vocal minority at best. More or less you can find 20% of the population that are always mad about something the governor is doing. California recall law is wild.

Full zip hoodie all the way today.

MLB killing me. Despite it being on ESPN they lock me out of viewing the game on YouTube TV.

That was my first thought too, right on the Airline so maybe somebody was woken up by ice cubes on their skylight.

Sneaky good 7 am severe over Downeast Maine? MRMS saying nearly half dollar size hail from above the fog and stratus.

I could think of worse things to do. We're watching your cam get dumped on right now.

Chickens plotting revenge? If the HRRR is any indication, the thicker near surface smoke doesn't arrive until midday tomorrow.

You can find them at places like IEM because of the ASOS period of record, but otherwise no. We definitely don't have a database (even paper) here at the office for instance of daily dewpoint records.

Bagged 1 inch of rain at home in 15 minutes.

It's taking me back to college when we had to get Fortran to calculate the W/sq m based on certain conditions. Kind of cool to see it in action.

Was that that forecast? I honestly didn't look, but saw 2 m temp progs were generally low to mid 80s. I see MOS was quite warm for BDL.

Honestly if anything temps are running warmer than the HRRR across New England as of 15z.

It's complicated. It can cut down on heating and thus CAPE (alternatively doesn't erode CIN), but it can also warm layers of the atmosphere to cut down on lapse rates if the smoke layer is within the updraft zone. But then there is research that says that warmer temps in the updraft zone may lead to warmer RFDs and assist tornadogenesis. So like I said, complicated.

It is impressive how much it cuts down on the insolation. My solar array is 72% of capacity despite no clouds.