OceanStWx

Nearly impossible to predict how frozen or freezing precip is going to react on roads. All depends on how they are treated. And the predictability horizon for something like the FWD accident is pretty small. I think once you know it's freezing on roads you gotta hammer something out the door to keep more people from getting on the streets.

There's a high branching in there, and there's not really room to run north with that big TPV lobe hanging out there. I think it's interesting that guidance is subtly trying to build the high in Quebec Tuesday morning despite the surface ridge trying to retreat before that time.

GFS wants the 850 low over Phin's fanny. The whole set up fits the New England ice climo pretty well.

This one definitely has a look for prolonged icing. It's not really a pattern to send the warm front screaming to CYUL. That helps to keep the forcing nearby and fight off the tendency to turn to WAA drizzle.

You can almost envision a scenario where KTOL sits at 33 and rain because it's so torchy aloft.

Big, big caveat is that all these ice forecasts are going to be flat surface accumulation (which is typically about 75% of QPF). That's how HQ wants us doing it now, even though anecdotally the Northeast has been radial forecasts. I suspect until we can iron out a new criteria for warnings, that's going to lead to some eye popping forecasts for fairly "routine" ice storm amounts.

Just as an FYI for people out there, that product doesn't represent freezing rain the same way a clown map represents snow. It's just the amount of liquid QPF that falls as freezing rain according to the model (in this case Euro). So you would have to do some back of the envelope calculations to get accretion (~75% for flat surface and 28% for radial).

It's interesting. Going to have to keep an eye on saturation though. Could just be a bunch of snizzle or drizzle.

Days and days?

242 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2008 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT... It's happened before.

They don't call it Electric Blue for nothing.

Snowglobed my way to 1.2" today.

Kudos on being honest with yourself. I wish we did less back patting after good events and more introspection after “bad” events locally. But we don’t want to offend anyone. Related to Scooter’s comment below, that’s why the big mesoscale snow band type paper uses layer averaged 700-500 mb f-gen. That will account for the slant of the system into the cold air. This band was right in the middle of that layer max on 12z guidance. Bad news is that layer is not often available on free websites, or even many paid sites.

That fits with our few reports from SoPo and Scarborough.

The only NH with a 6 spot was North Haven.

Really? Jetport had 1.7” at 7 and I can’t have much more than that right now.

I'm just riffing but a 32 would probably give you around 10:1, so actually pulling 15 or 20 is going to be quite a bit of snow difference.

It's why my preference in situations like this is get the background snow amounts most correct and adjust when you see the whites of its eyes. When you try and swing for the fence and nail the location you usually are off by 20-30 miles and look silly. Or if you go with snowband amounts everywhere you look silly too.

It's because models had a warm near surface layer. Like 34-35. That will knock back Kuchera ratios since it takes the highest temp below 500 mb. When you mentioned the cross hair siggy I looked at a few select soundings for SNE. Under the band definitely had the 15-20:1 potential.

It's like 20 miles from the coast? Either way I think 3-4 maybe a local 5 spot does it on the Seacoast.

Meh. First inch in Deerfield, snow isn't going to last that much longer. I would take the under on 6-8".

These types of bands it's very good to be underneath it, heavy meh outside of it.

Look at the tweet, the overlays are such a good match for a lateral quasi-stationary band. Definitely going to see some totals higher than 8" in CT.

Warnings to NH was a little wild, they were right to take 'em down. Overcorrected though. Honestly blending the NAM with the drier guidance was the way to go overall. Take the NAM alone and it's going to be too wet. But I honestly think the mid levels were always pointing to a nice NYC to Pike band. Check the receipts, I don't think I ever harshed your buzz on higher totals for KTOL.

IMBY syndrome. The NAM and HREF are not going be correct at all. Under the band it will likely overperform forecast amounts, but to the north those models are going to end up dumpster fires. Maybe you could argue the 12z NAM got a clue on the northern edge, but HREF was still 6-8" for SE NH at 00z.