OceanStWx

They don't call it Electric Blue for nothing.

Snowglobed my way to 1.2" today.

Kudos on being honest with yourself. I wish we did less back patting after good events and more introspection after “bad” events locally. But we don’t want to offend anyone. Related to Scooter’s comment below, that’s why the big mesoscale snow band type paper uses layer averaged 700-500 mb f-gen. That will account for the slant of the system into the cold air. This band was right in the middle of that layer max on 12z guidance. Bad news is that layer is not often available on free websites, or even many paid sites.

That fits with our few reports from SoPo and Scarborough.

The only NH with a 6 spot was North Haven.

Really? Jetport had 1.7” at 7 and I can’t have much more than that right now.

I'm just riffing but a 32 would probably give you around 10:1, so actually pulling 15 or 20 is going to be quite a bit of snow difference.

It's why my preference in situations like this is get the background snow amounts most correct and adjust when you see the whites of its eyes. When you try and swing for the fence and nail the location you usually are off by 20-30 miles and look silly. Or if you go with snowband amounts everywhere you look silly too.

It's because models had a warm near surface layer. Like 34-35. That will knock back Kuchera ratios since it takes the highest temp below 500 mb. When you mentioned the cross hair siggy I looked at a few select soundings for SNE. Under the band definitely had the 15-20:1 potential.

It's like 20 miles from the coast? Either way I think 3-4 maybe a local 5 spot does it on the Seacoast.

Meh. First inch in Deerfield, snow isn't going to last that much longer. I would take the under on 6-8".

These types of bands it's very good to be underneath it, heavy meh outside of it.

Look at the tweet, the overlays are such a good match for a lateral quasi-stationary band. Definitely going to see some totals higher than 8" in CT.

Warnings to NH was a little wild, they were right to take 'em down. Overcorrected though. Honestly blending the NAM with the drier guidance was the way to go overall. Take the NAM alone and it's going to be too wet. But I honestly think the mid levels were always pointing to a nice NYC to Pike band. Check the receipts, I don't think I ever harshed your buzz on higher totals for KTOL.

IMBY syndrome. The NAM and HREF are not going be correct at all. Under the band it will likely overperform forecast amounts, but to the north those models are going to end up dumpster fires. Maybe you could argue the 12z NAM got a clue on the northern edge, but HREF was still 6-8" for SE NH at 00z.

A real classic example here.

Was it forecast or was it expected? Two different questions.

I'm getting Scooter on the runway vibes (on a small scale because it's only an advisory event) up here. Ceilings around 1500 ft in snow is really shows how dry the air mass is. And lots of wind directions out of the NW locally. That's usually end of event type direction, not a recipe for heavy snow of any duration.

Well those SPC drawings are fairly generalized. I think you're right to worry about being north of that band. But it's not exhaust north of coastal enhancement, it IS the mid level f-gen.

I wouldn't worry about a significant deformation band north of you. This forcing is going to be mostly stacked on top of itself.

Honestly I was mostly focused near my southern border, what were the forecasts amounts down there? I was under the impression that 6-8" was always looking solid down that way.

Should be soon, it looks like based on obs it's saturated the coast of CT now. So it's right on your doorstep.

Check that CHH sounding. Pretty dry across SNE at 850 mb.

12z NAM Nest forecast QPF through 15z looks pretty good around NYC. I'm kind of eyeballing the 0.50" QPF line as the warning criteria winners.

There will definitely be some pretty high level f-gen going on NW of the main band, but I haven't seen much more than 1 1/2SM to 3/4SM snow in it so far and snow growth is probably not great being that high in the atmosphere. Wintry but I'm not expecting much out of it.