OceanStWx

But you'll get them when they're all sweaty in the early Summer!

My wife and I had started the first few episodes of Ozark like over the summer 2019, but ended up cancelling Netflix as part of our budget. Then I cut the cord because cable was insane, and now have Netflix back (plus nearly every other streaming service for ~$100 cheaper per month). I think we've got to get back into it.

A nice little burst of lightning well south of Sable Island in the inverted trof as it wrapped itself around the upper low. Oh to have some ship reports.

It's northern stream dominance could definitely be in play here.

Yawn awakening?

Broadly speaking the EPS had a deeper trof and less shortwave trofing (higher heights) north of the upper low. In fact over the lower Hudson Bay the EPS has shortwave ridging vs the GEFS shortwave trofing.

00z runs were still a pretty clean split between the major ensemble camps. Euro on one side and GEFS on the other. The 12z should update on WPC's site by 22z.

May not end up being next month. Looks like the IT evaluation period just ended, so the new implementation says March 2021 now.

The CAA is definitely helping steepen in the low level lapse rates in the inverted trof and thus increasing the intensity of snow showers.

Do you want the honest answer? The parallel test phase really just ensures that the model runs properly, is realistic, and doesn't seriously degrade the forecast from the current version.

All of the GFS is now running an FV3 model core (which is why people refer to it as the FV3). V16 is the coming upgrade to the GFS, this upgrade will actually change model physics vs the FV3 which just changed model capability and scalability. Because they need to test the V16 to ensure no bugs, it is run in parallel to the operational GFS to test performance. So the V16 and parallel are the same.

Take a page from the Rev playbook, all he needs to do is throw out of a forecast for the next one and the people will forget.

I assumed it would be easier to find, but alas no luck, but 12/9/2005 would be a more classic fold I believe. But it's been a while since I've seen cross sections.

I wouldn't say it is. You aren't really getting the tropopause to fold under the upper jet. It's more of a tropopause polar vortex (TPV) that has dislodged.

Closer, not close. Our classic inverted trofs are a result of out to sea storms, but not one like this that is headed for Bermuda.

Climb up into the crow's nest and sniff the ozone.

Look at the position of the low pressure. Inverted trofs are inverted because the pressure trof extends north from a low pressure. With a low pressure this far south, the approach of a shortwave from the north orients the inverted trof more north/south and mostly offshore. As the low continues out to sea and the shortwave ends up over SNE, the inverted trof axis will end up aligned more NW/SE and allow some of it to make it inland. Typically a low pressure much closer to SNE and a shortwave approaching from the N would allow the trof axis to be more NW/SE from the start and much more likely to impact coastal areas.

Honestly, it will probably be effing wild for anyone out fishing. It should at least partially make it onshore, but the best of it will be mostly for the fish.

I think it will clip the Cape too, but it's really the inverted trof reorganizing to our east later tonight (in a northeast/southwest fashion) then getting captured by the upper trof diving through SNE. So that intense band of snow is actually going to form up in the Bay of Fundy tonight and come crashing southbound.

So close, yet so far away.

My best forecast this season. Hands down.

Nice, right off the runway at BOS effing with Scooter's forecast.

Seriously, even a slowing it down by a few hours gets it more into the NorLun territory. But I've seen good inverted trofs rip 4-6" in two hours as they blast through.

I think the second map you posted lops off the first 6 hours of the forecast period (starts at 7 PM instead of 1 PM) and probably accounts for the couple inches differences.

GFS with a pretty nice trowal signal. Really cooling the cloud tops between these two frames. All model caveats apply, but it's nice potential.