OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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39.6"
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I just pushed the sleet off the driveway last night when it ended, and it all just rolled downhill.
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I would say it's definitely a bit odd to get that bulge of heavier snows into SE MA when the coastal front tends to be sharper and NE/SW in orientation.
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And not only that, but BOX could get quite good if they only ever had to worry about just KTOL or a single point. With thousands of 1x1km grids to forecast for there is always going to be some element of smoothing across sharp gradient areas.
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I think we were really looking at a decaying band of deformation lift north and weaken, but then a second spoke of vorticity rotated around and gave western ME a bunch of QPF yesterday. While it was sleet near the coast, it stayed all snow farther inland.
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6.7" is going to be the final at weenie HQ. Ugly 0.96" liquid, but at least the pack isn't going to go anywhere without some work.
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All those low CC areas like north of Brunswick are pretty classic. It’s inside the melting layer ring, so not mixed hydrometeors.
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I will say the dual-pol refreeze signatures have been chef’s kiss all day.
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North facing, stained glass door to the porch in my bedroom pinging away all night. Surprised I didn’t swan dive off it that night.
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I don’t think I’ve seen this much sleet since February 2007 in Lowell.
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Yeah, nothing but ball bearings pouring off the roof since about 11 am.
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I'm trying to think if I've ever seen an unaugmented ASOS report M1/4SM. I can think of MHT and PSM, but both of those are augmented the majority of the day. Usually you can tell from the SPECI when it either got the VIS or wind criteria, so as long as that hits ~ 3 hours we're not going to kill ourselves over a few minutes.
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A lot of forecast soundings have the biggest lift below the DGZ, would set up riming well. Relatedly, the above response to Brian is what I'm seeing on most modeling for our area. We're going to want a more RAP/HRRR scenario of strong lift verifying higher in the column to juice ratios. A foot is realistic, but I am expecting most totals to be just under.
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CHH was -5.7 at 925 this morning.
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A little snip snip with the internet lines?
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But you'll get them when they're all sweaty in the early Summer!
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My wife and I had started the first few episodes of Ozark like over the summer 2019, but ended up cancelling Netflix as part of our budget. Then I cut the cord because cable was insane, and now have Netflix back (plus nearly every other streaming service for ~$100 cheaper per month). I think we've got to get back into it.
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A nice little burst of lightning well south of Sable Island in the inverted trof as it wrapped itself around the upper low. Oh to have some ship reports.
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It's northern stream dominance could definitely be in play here.
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Yawn awakening?
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Broadly speaking the EPS had a deeper trof and less shortwave trofing (higher heights) north of the upper low. In fact over the lower Hudson Bay the EPS has shortwave ridging vs the GEFS shortwave trofing.
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00z runs were still a pretty clean split between the major ensemble camps. Euro on one side and GEFS on the other. The 12z should update on WPC's site by 22z.
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May not end up being next month. Looks like the IT evaluation period just ended, so the new implementation says March 2021 now.
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The CAA is definitely helping steepen in the low level lapse rates in the inverted trof and thus increasing the intensity of snow showers.
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Do you want the honest answer? The parallel test phase really just ensures that the model runs properly, is realistic, and doesn't seriously degrade the forecast from the current version.
