OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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I dream for the day when I come in to 100% in the grids. I remember one event early in my days here when we may have had less than 15% chance of snow showers and it was just pounding +SN 1"/hr stuff up there. I took webcam screen captures and emailed them out to the staff in a rage. Full Scooter smash.
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I've been here for 9 years now and we can't seem to get out of the habit of forecast 20-30% chance of snow showers during an upslope event. I stream Pittsburg's, Alex's, and your webcams during winter to make a point.
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Honestly the forecast 925/850 winds aren't that different between the two events.
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I've been saying a good place to start is the 11/30 wind event. That should probably be the baseline forecast right now. BDL gusted to 47 mph. Temps and dewpoints got into the lower 60s. Low level lapse rates were about 3C/km (not unstable but not inverted either). Could see the 925 jet crank to a similar level (OKX sampled 52 kt at 12z, but the worst of it was in the afternoon so no obs).
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Gee, you think we're going to be moving some mass around the mid latitudes?
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Just gotta give him the old clown emoji from the office account.
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Exclamations, all caps...
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What inversion on the GFS? No real hint of one on soundings until about 800 mb.
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Well it's always best to never buy the hype, but 50 knot gusts with 2.5 days to go in our forecasts is probably one of our all time lead times for a wind event. It's one of the better looking signals I've seen (caveat I haven't done a model reanalysis of 10/30/17 yet).
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Throw up the sash and air out the house?
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Pretty amazing loop. There's no pivot. Just a lot of WCB goodies.
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The saving grace is that the models have not initialized the pack awfully well. I have 13 in my backyard even though I'd have to be in NH to see anything over 12" on that map. The bad news is it's hard to say how much pack the models think we'll lose when it goes to 0 in so many places.
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I actually really like how you can see the Benchmark SSW/NNE pivots but also the Mid Altantic WSW/ENE bands. And of course my own personal budding weenie Bermuda triangle of disappointment in RI.
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Too many DIPAs and fell asleep on the keyboard?
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I ended up clearing twice (7 am CoCoRaHS report and again at 18z). But that last chunk my office was asking for rate reports for SPS purposes. I got 3.9 and 4.8" in two consecutive hours (didn't clear the board after the 3.9" so there was likely compaction and even more than 4.8" in that second hour). When the snow stopped I went back out for the final measurement and the depth on the board had already settled nearly an inch to 8.0" in about an hour. It happens fast.
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Up to 24.8" on the season. Good enough to knock Kevin down a peg.
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From what it looks like their 17th CoCoRaHS report was missing liquid (CoCoRaHS staff edited it out), looks like overflow. So that doesn't mean the snowfall amount it wrong like you say. I don't love that snow depth was T before and 48 inches fell and was reported on the ground and the snow depth was then reported as 48.5 without any additional snow.
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They do note that the liquid was completely estimated. I wouldn't expect a mountain to not advertise 48" of snow, but it does make my spidey sense tingle a bit.
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Santa coming in hot and heavy?
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I know I remarked about how in this band we squeezed everything we could out of the atmosphere. Well as my SOO pointed out through Bosart, the ALB sounding at 12z had a PWAT of 0.43". Just 2 hours before that balloon was launched ALB ticked off 0.36" in one hour. That's nearly squeezing out all the available moisture in the column, in one hour.
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Record is 47. Let's do it!
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That type of evolution is more like what the sensitivity suggests for the NCEP suite than the EPS. Not seeing as clear a signal on the EPS anyway.
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Settled down to 14.5" on the ground from 20" yesterday.
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Well, our old radar page sucked. Bad. This isn’t much better though. Not intuitive and graphics are only so so. So many good sites out there we could’ve reached out to for ideas.
