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OceanStWx

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Everything posted by OceanStWx

  1. OceanStWx
    4.5” at 8 am, 0.26” liquid. Solid 17:1 from the mid level magic.
  2. OceanStWx
    Naked snow angels in front of his neighbor's house
  3. OceanStWx
    It's like toddler art, you just say "great job!" and hang it on the fridge anyway.
  4. OceanStWx
    GFS nailed this one.
  5. OceanStWx
    KDP showing values in the pristine dendrite range from there through western MA.
  6. OceanStWx
    Start high and adjust higher if needed.
  7. OceanStWx
    Yeah, really just need to find the DGZ level and best omega. But like you say, because the best lift is at one level, the precip will fall out slightly NW of there.
  8. OceanStWx
    I always felt like a high end advisory was our upside here given the pattern, so I never really bought our 8-9” forecast.
  9. OceanStWx
    It’s a compulsion for us. Can’t have a winter storm watch that doesn’t go to a warning.
  10. OceanStWx
    Look at those subtle changes on the GFS the last few days. As the shortwave over the Upper Midwest becomes stronger/digs, the downstream side of the ridge over the Plains gets sharper. It allows the New England shortwave more room to amplify.
  11. OceanStWx
  12. OceanStWx
    Ensemble sensitivity kind of backs that up. 12z GEFS has over 50% of the variance in members explained by a more tucked surface low. The ensemble is most sensitive to 500 heights trailing our shortwave. Meaning, the lower the heights upstream, the more tucked the surface low.
  13. OceanStWx
    Still a little too early for those kinds of defaults, but I say “classic” in the sense that forcing can continue with a more north of east trajectory rather than getting squashed.
  14. OceanStWx
    I had mentioned it awhile back in the thread, but the kicker was always coming into better sampling later so these additional moves even after the main shortwave was sampled should be expected. Sure enough the kicker was moving over sounding sides this morning.
  15. OceanStWx
    Can’t see the individual members at 500 mb, but overall it looks like the northern part of the kicker is digging more. In effect that sharpens the downstream side of the ridge out west. Makes the whole pattern more amplified and closer to classic looking for New England snow.
  16. OceanStWx
    “After coordinating with surround offices, ehhh we’ll tell you later”
  17. OceanStWx
    He's just biding his time, not saying a word, occasional gif, all the while furiously shoring up the coops.
  18. OceanStWx
    Slamming the WCB into the Pike this time around. Maybe the biggest changes in the forcing in PA. Some of those Philly ex-urbs are getting the 20+ clown map rug pulled out from under them.
  19. OceanStWx
    To my eye there's better spacing between it and the next wave, so it shouldn't slip east as fast this run.
  20. OceanStWx
    I want you to go straight Ukie tomorrow night.
  21. OceanStWx
    By 12z Thursday the left exit is south of Halifax
  22. OceanStWx
    Yes and no. The straight blizzard watch no longer exists, but we are able to insert code into a winter storm watch that will trigger the wording to say blizzard conditions possible.
  23. OceanStWx
    Honestly between the two models though the old conceptual model of heavy snow along the -4C isotherm is pretty similar. Lays out over CT and RI and really doesn't push much farther north.
  24. OceanStWx
    Contrast that with the Euro that actually develops a 700 mb low and gets those 50 knot WCB winds into SNE.
  25. OceanStWx
    That mid level WCB, just scoots east after delivering for the Mid Atlantic.
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