OceanStWx
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Everything posted by OceanStWx
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I can see it now, instead of ringing a bell for food Ginxy’s ringing the bell for the 18z snow measurements.
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I’m leaving it out right now. But there’s roughly a 0% chance my wife will keep an eye on it an make sure it doesn’t overflow if I’m at work. So I’ll probably end up doing cores too.
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He stopped short of giving your a ICAO ID but you’re in there. Now that I’ve started CoCoRaHS, I’m loathing the 4” gauge. I miss my WFO 8” bucket. The 4” nearly overflowed with snow twice during this event.
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For sure. That’s what Ryan and I were kind of talking about last night. BGM didn’t have wild ratios or anything, they just maxed everything out of the atmosphere.
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Auto-generated from the human forecast. It just takes our grids and produces the binned impact levels. It’s still experimental because we’re trying to hammer down impacts. Like snow last year was one set of values across the whole country. But 2 ft here is not 2 ft in a place like RDU. My guess is that blowing snow tripped to extreme due to combination of wind gust forecast and snow ratio.
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I mean BGM rates were good, ratio wasn’t necessarily extreme. I’d have to see their 6 hour break downs. If they were over 20:1 I’d say the DGZ was likely deeper, but 15:1 for the event could just been excellent dendrite formation.
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The main graphic takes the max category of all the individual inputs. So an extreme flash freeze for instance would show up as extreme in the overall storm threat. Snowfall categories are based on climate of the area, so 12-18 is unlikely to trigger that. In this case it looks like blowing snow triggered it. Probably due to the strength of the wind and visibility.
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Kuchera is going to be a fine representation where ratios were extreme, but I view it as right for the wrong reason. It was right because the airmass was cold, not because it knew anything about the DGZ depth or lift within it. As forecasters our job is really to sniff out these record events from model noise. I’m not sure there was a ton of signal in the noise until yesterday’s mesoscale runs started really getting beefy. This looks a lot like a good old fashioned model bust on the dynamics at play.
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I really didn’t think I was in line for a foot. More like 6-8”. I thought the fight with dry air and a deamplifying system was going to win out. That’s pretty much where I’ve landed too. We must’ve maxed out the f-gen with the Arctic high and WCB. The high kind of locked the band in place and didn’t allow much movement north. If I had to guess, the upper air pattern probably ended up more conducive for a parallel band than even a pivot.
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Final of 21.7” The last 8.7” was 23:1, but storm total was 1.8”/hr and 17.5:1 average.
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Bring ‘em up?
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Finally tapering off here. I’ll get a final measurement when it stops for good.
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My kid doesn’t know what hit him. He went down for a nap with a foot and wakes up closing in on two.
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It's pretty amazing. Since the first flakes tripped the ASOS at PWM at 4:20 I've averaged 1.8"/hr.
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This is bananas even as the radar is petering out. Work asked for an update on rates (they issued a SPS for heavy rates last hour based on my 3.9"/hr report). I knew it was snowing hard, but I picked up an additional 4.8" in the last hour. 8.7" since 1 pm. Storm total 21.7". Dumbfounded honestly.
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You're way closer to the peninsula than I am. I can throw a rock onto the turnpike. I'm in a good spot to stay just on the cool side of any coastal convergence.
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I had an 18" flag marking my snow board and I've lost it... And his heart grew three sizes... This is going to be a great case study though. Obviously even a marginally stronger/coherent WCB was going to produce a lot of frontogenesis with that high anchored to the north. It probably also helped to lock the band in place rather than translating as quickly.
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What timing for Terry! Honestly I could sneeze most of this snow away so it's not heavy in the weight sense, but for sustained heavy snowfall this has been one of the better in recent years. Certainly February 2013 was like this but most of it occurred overnight and I was locked into 30 of 36 hours at work. I've been full weenie mode with a nice daylight event. I haven't had 20" at the new house yet, and I may do it in the next hour if it keeps this up.
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It's a clown show outside. I measured at 1 pm and have 3.9" since then.
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Even as the intensity of the band comes down on reflectivity we're still snowing just as hard as at its peak. Must be the low levels doing the bulk of the work currently. When PWM is 16 though you can do that and it still works out.
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When the cold conveyor really kicked in here and we started getting that easterly flow, the snow really took on the look of some of our better ocean effect. Just really dumping dendrites.
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I just looked quickly at the NAM 12 hours apart and it's crazy really. Went from lift all above the DGZ at PWM to 40-50 ubar right in the heart of it. Snow forecast jumped from 9" to 17" with similar QPF. Our 12z sounding matches the 12z run pretty closely. The DGZ is nearly surface to 500 mb. Doesn't matter where you start lifting from, it's dendrites.
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Yes. No fun at the office for me, but I get to have happy hour!
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13.0" so far and 15:1 average ratio
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Kuchera ratios will definitely come to fruition in the meat of the band, because it’s actually producing pure dendrites at 15-20:1. Obviously you can’t broad brush Kuchera over the whole region.
